Thursday, August 15, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

Full list of draftees

The Twins broke character by waiting until the their third pick to take a true power bat, and overall collected together a draft class full of really interesting players. It was a hitter-heavy class, beginning with seven hitters in their first eight picks and finishing with twelve pitchers in their final fourteen picks. Interestingly, it seems they targeted aggressive hitters who go up hacking, deciding "walk rate and chase rate be damned, give me guys who can hit." Spurning the more tempered approach at the plate does mean the Twins got some seriously talented bats who perhaps fell a bit in the draft due to that propensity to expand the zone, something the Twins believe they can fix.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-21: SS Kaelen Culpepper, Kansas State {video}
Slot value: $3.93 million. Signing bonus: $3.93 million.
My rank: #50. MLB Pipeline: #31. Baseball America: #34.
Known for their love of power bats, the Twins changed things up this time around and started things off with a more well-rounded profile in Kaelen Culpepper. A three year starter at Kansas State, he has seen his stock tick up throughout his time in Manhattan, first by a breakout with the bat as a sophomore and then by impressive glovework as a junior. Culpepper doesn't have a carrying tool on offense, rather a lack of weaknesses. He's not overly physical, listed at 6', 185, but he whips the bat around well for a quick right handed swing and knocks hard line drives around the field. The power right now is fringy, and given his size and approach I believe it will remain that way long term. Meanwhile, he's fairly aggressive in the box but controls the strike zone well, making adjustments in at bats to keep his strikeout rates down and showing above average pure bat to ball. At peak, it could be a .270-.280ish type hitter with 10-20 home runs annually. What made the difference in 2024, though, was his defense. A third baseman for his first two seasons in Manhattan (I watched a ground ball bounce over his head in Lubbock during his freshman season), he slid over to shortstop in 2024 and really impressed scouts, who now believe he has a shot to stick there. Although not the most explosive runner, he moves gracefully around the dirt and makes all the routine plays and then some, with plenty of arm strength to throw on the run. Even if he ultimately moves back to third base in pro ball, he'll be doing so as a potential plus defender at the hot corner rather than as the above average one he was initially projected as. That really helps the offensive profile stick out a little more, especially if he sticks at shortstop which the Twins likely believe he'll do. Through five games at Low A Fort Myers, he's shown well hitting .286/.348/.571 with a home run and an even 2/2 strikeout to walk ratio.

1C-33: SS Kyle DeBarge, Louisiana {video}
Slot value: $2.77 million. Signing bonus: $2.4 million ($366,100 below slot value).
My rank: #74. MLB Pipeline: #67. Baseball America: #89.
This is a really interesting pick, as Kyle DeBarge is extremely talented but far from a traditional profile. A three year starter at Louisiana, he broke out as a sophomore in 2023 and established himself as one of the top mid-major prospects in the country as a pure contact hitter. Then in 2024, he tripled his home run output from seven to 21 with only a modest increase in strikeout rate from 8.3% to 10.3%. DeBarge stands just 5'9", 175 pounds, but has really established a potent offensive profile. He has a very quick bat from the right side and in 2024 proved adept at driving the ball in the air to his pull side and that's where most of his power came from. DeBarge was able to get away with this approach due to his plus bat to ball ability, making a ton of contact both inside and outside the zone. He's a bit aggressive at the plate and has never run a walk rate above 8.6% in any individual season, but the approach works and he rarely strikes out. The Louisiana native's power will be tested in pro ball, as he didn't hit for much impact in the Cape Cod League (.267/.336/.297) and likely won't be hitting many opposite field home runs with wood bats. Still, a high-average type with some pull-side juice is a nice package, especially when you consider his defensive value. He's a plus runner that glides around the dirt and has the range to stick at shortstop, while his solid arm gives him a good shot to stick there, too. If the power doesn't come with him from metal to wood bats, he'll fit right in as a versatile utility infielder. Age works in DeBarge's favor as well, as he only turned 21 shortly after the draft and was younger than most college juniors. So far through seven games at Low A Fort Myers, he's hitting .276/.382/.414 and has already stolen seven bases.

2-60: 3B Billy Amick, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $1.45 million. Signing bonus: $1.45 million.
My rank: #39. MLB Pipeline: #32. Baseball America: #29.
Billy Amick is the first true power hitter drafted by the Twins this year, and he's another one that will be interesting to follow. A South Carolina native, he began his career at Clemson and after picking up just two (2) hits as a freshman, broke out for a ridiculous sophomore season in which he hit .413/.464/.772 for the Tigers. Having played mostly first base and DH at Clemson, he wanted the opportunity to showcase his defense and slide over to third base, but the Tigers were content with using Blake Wright at the hot corner. Amick transferred to Tennessee and got the opportunity to make the position change, where his defense was better than expected and elevated his profile. While he's still a little rough over there, he showed enough spring in his step and enough arm to warrant a chance to continue playing there in pro ball and prove himself. Meanwhile, the Twins are buying the bat. He has true plus power that produces some elite exit velocities with a direct, leveraged right handed swing, and he started tapping that power more often in games in 2024 as began turning on and elevating the ball better. Amick has always been an extremely aggressive hitter, and while he started the 2024 season hot, that aggressive approach began to get him in trouble in SEC play where he struck out almost a quarter of the time. Scouts love the way he accesses his power and the Twins are confident he'll continue to do it in pro ball, as he's always found a way to hit for impact at every stop. If he does, he could hit 30+ home runs annually with something of an early-career Paul DeJong offensive profile. So far through seven games at Low A Fort Myers, he's reversed to a hit-over-power profile at .321/.406/.393 with a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio.

CBB-69: LHP Dasan Hill, Grapevine HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $1.17 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($829,500 above slot value).
My rank: #59. MLB Pipeline: #52. Baseball America: #48.
The Twins spent their largest bonus overage on Dasan Hill, a prep lefty with all the ingredients to become an impact starting pitcher. Hill has a low 90's fastball that has ticked up as high as 96 this spring, and it's likely to continue moving up. He has an above average slider with great depth across the plate, while his truer curveball and changeup look to be solid big league pitches in their own right. Meanwhile, he repeats his delivery well and shows above average command of all of his pitches, making for an extraordinarily well-rounded profile for a prep. Hill is 6'5" and has a ton of room to continue filling out, which could help his entire arsenal take a leap. He has a chance to move quicker than the typical prep arm with a really nice combination of floor and ceiling, especially considering his left handedness. As a lanky prep lefty with a well-rounded arsenal and above average command from the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, he's bound to receive Clayton Kershaw comparisons, though of course Kershaw is the best of his generation. In order to become an ace, Hill will likely need to add another tick or two of velocity as he fills out that frame, all while maintaining his command and executing his secondaries. While that's a tall task, he's well on his way to becoming at least a mid-rotation starter. The Twins gave him close to the slot value for the #47 pick in order to pull him away from a Dallas Baptist commitment.

3-96: C Khadim Diaw, Loyola Marymount {video}
Slot value: $759,700. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($162,200 above slot value).
My rank: #173. MLB Pipeline: #163. Baseball America: #338.
Khadim Diaw is another interesting one for the Twins, coming in with less track record than most collegians and more upside than you might expect. He didn't play much as a freshman, showed well as a sophomore, demolished the Alaska League over the summer (368/.510/.474), then was limited to just twenty games as a junior with thumb and wrist injuries but hit .432/.500/.716 (!) in that stint. Diaw has just never, ever stopped hitting. His approach has varied throughout his time in school, at times more patient but much more aggressive in the small sample this spring. Despite the inconsistent approach, he has always made a ton of contact no matter where he's gone both inside and outside the zone, looking like a potential above average hitter overall. The power hasn't entirely manifested itself in games, but the natural loft in his right handed swing and the strength on his 6'1" frame give him average raw power that could translate to 15-20 home runs per season in the majors. If he cleans up his approach, he's a sleeper to become one of the better hitters in this class. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles native has seen time behind the plate and the Twins want to try him out back there. He can be a bit slower with his actions, especially in his transfer, but the Twins likely see his lack of consistent experience back there as an opportunity to really clean things up. Diaw does have a strong arm once he gets it going and he's a pretty good athlete, and when you combine that with his extreme youth (still 20 on draft day), he has the ingredients to make it work if he really dedicates himself to catching. If not, he likely fits in a corner outfield spot, where there will be more pressure on his bat. Through seven games at Low A Fort Myers, he's hitting .259/.375/.259 with a 6/5 strikeout to walk ratio.

4-126: OF Jaime Ferrer, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $567,400. Signing bonus: $425,550 ($141,850 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #360.
Jaime Ferrer was one of those names that was on my radar as the draft approached, but I never got around to getting him onto the final list. Though he didn't get much love from national publications despite playing for a very visible College World Series program, the Twins got him for a bit of a haircut here in the fourth round and he very much fits their prototypical target. Ferrer was a solid all-around hitter for the Seminoles in his first two seasons before breaking out for 22 home runs as a junior without sacrificing contact, putting him on the pro radar. He stands out first for his power, which played up to plus in games in 2024 as he consistently launched the ball to his pull side with tremendous authority. He packs a ton of strength into his 6'1" frame and can really blast the ball. Though he's a very aggressive hitter who doesn't walk a whole lot, he makes pretty good contact and had no issue with Cape Cod League pitching last summer (.313/.420/.458) so the hope is that he can have close to a fringe-average hit tool in pro ball. The bat will have to play, because he's a fringy runner that will be limited to a corner outfield spot, though he handles himself well out there and has enough arm to play right field. If he maintains his frame and doesn't slow down with age, the Puerto Rico native has a chance to be an above average defender there in right. He's off to a slower start at Low A Fort Myers, slashing .143/.296/.238 with a 4/3 strikeout to walk ratio over six games.

6-188: C Derek Bender, Coastal Carolina {video}
Slot value: $320,800. Signing bonus: $297,500 ($23,300 below slot value).
My rank: #187. MLB Pipeline: #189. Baseball America: #178.
Derek Bender was a hard one for me to figure out, so it will be interesting to see what the Twins do with him in pro ball. Originally from the Albany area, he moved down to the Myrtle Beach area for high school and stayed in his new hometown for college. After an unremarkable freshman season, he put up a big sophomore season and proceeded to tear up the Cape Cod League to the tune of a .362/.433/.579 line and seven home runs in forty games. That sent his stock soaring and he had considerable top three round interest entering the spring, but was ultimately more good than great for the Chanticleers and found himself signing slightly below slot value in the sixth round. So who is he? Bender has a sturdy 6'1" frame and utilizes a simple, effective right handed swing to tap above average raw power very consistently in games, including with wood bats on the Cape. He has always been an aggressive hitter, but tempered his aggression just enough in 2024 to raise his walk rate from 5.7% as a sophomore to 12.4% as a junior, though that was more a product of him getting less to hit in general. Bender is not much of an athlete, generating his power more from strength than from bat speed and showing below average speed on the bases and in the field. Like Khadim Diaw, he has some experience behind the plate and the Twins want to see what he can do there, but Diaw in my opinion is more likely to stick back there long term. If Bender ends up at first base long term, which is likely, there is a lot of pressure on his bat and his performance at Coastal Carolina probably projects him more as a platoon bat than as an every day guy. However, you don't hit like he did on the Cape by accident, so the upside is there. So far at Low A Fort Myers he's hitting .286/.400/.429 with a home run and a 6/3 strikeout to walk ratio in six games.

11-338: LHP Michael Carpenter, Madison College [WI] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $508,500 ($358,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Twins had leftover bonus pool money going into day three, so they dumped a hefty amount into an Upper Midwest product in Michael Carpenter. He grew up in Hartland, Wisconsin, an outer suburb of Milwaukee, then headed up to the best baseball program in Madison for school. As it turns out, as a sophomore in 2024 he was one of the most dominant pitchers in the country, just mowing down Wisconsin and Illinois JuCo hitters with a 1.03 ERA and a 111/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings. At one point, he tossed 45 consecutive scoreless innings and didn't allow a run between March 24th and May 10th. Carpenter has a low 90's fastball that can tickle the mid 90's, coming in with run and sink from a three quarters arm slot. His breaking ball dives across the plate with nice depth while his changeup gives him a third big league quality pitch. Meanwhile, he doesn't throw with much effort and repeats his delivery well, enabling him to show above average command from the left side. It's not the most exciting profile in the world, but much like competitive balance pick Dasan Hill, he's a very well-rounded pitching prospect that has a good chance to become a big league starting pitcher. He's also very young for his class and didn't turn 20 until after the draft. Carpenter has previously been committed to East Carolina but turned pro when the Twins gave him early fifth round money.

17-518: 3B Jay Thomason, Air Force {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $50,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
There are only two former Air Force cadets in the majors – Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes, who transferred to LSU after two years in Colorado Springs, and Twins reliever Griffin Jax. The Twins are doubling up now bringing on Jay Thomason, one of the most decorated hitters in academy history. He didn't play much as a freshman, but over the past three seasons, he has demolished the ball pretty much nonstop and finished with 58 career home runs, an all time academy record, and slashed .348/.435/.687 over 194 games. He's a sturdy, strong 6'1" left handed hitter that starts in a crouch with an open stance, unloading on the ball with above average power especially to the pull side. He's also a fairly aggressive hitter that strikes out a bit more than you'd like, especially given that he was playing in a mid-major conference, but that's the tradeoff for power at this stage in the draft. The Alabama native has played mostly third base for the Falcons but has also seen time at second base and in the corner outfield spots, and he figures to be playable on the dirt in pro ball. A senior sign, he did turn 22 back in April. He's picked up four hits in nineteen at bats (.263 AVG) at Low A Fort Myers and has yet to walk or collect an extra base hit.

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