Sunday, June 11, 2017

2017 Draft Demographics: Catchers

First Tier: Nobody
Second Tier: Luis Campusano, M.J. Melendez, Riley Adams, Evan Skoug
Third Tier: Connor Wong, Matt Whatley, Daulton Varsho, Blake Hunt, Joey Morgan
Others: Sam McMillan, Zach Jackson, Chris Williams

Catching is typically difficult to come by at the college level. This year in particular, there's almost none of it. None likely even have a chance of going in the first round, unless they sign an underslot, and it might be the biggest weakness of the draft class. That said, here are the best of what we have. Some of them have been profiled in other demographics, and will be profiled again.

Tier I
As I said, there are no top tier catchers. Each one comes with their own significant risks.

Tier II (Campusano, Melendez, Adams, Skoug)
Two high schoolers, Luis Campusano and M.J. Melendez, lead the pack. Both are solid defenders with their own issues, both have a lot of power projection, and both have a lot of swing and miss in their games. Their outlooks and potential risk/rewards are actually so similar that I have them ranked right next to each other in my top 100. That said, they are in fact different players, with different swings and different defensive holes in their game. Campusano, who got himself into excellent shape this season, generates power through his strength and a clean swing that he is constantly tweaking, and I along with others believe there is more to come. Meanwhile, Melendez gets his power from a rotation swing in which he whips his energy from his lower half up through his torso and arms, thereby whipping the bat through the zone with great speed and force. Campusano has a much thicker build, but Melendez is more agile and can use what he has more efficiently, giving them roughly equal outlooks on power. Both have question marks about future contact, Campusano more because of a simple lack of being acclimated to high-level arms, and Melendez because of the significant bat wrap he has before his swing, as well as the length and nature of the swing itself. Again, though they have different reasons for their swing and miss, the net sum is about equal. On defense, Melendez gets the slight edge because he is better at blocking balls and moving around behind the plate. That said, Campusano isn't bad at that either, and they both have excellent arm strength. If you like the upside of a Joe Mauer type catcher, Melendez is your guy, while if you like the more traditionally stocky and durable Russell Martin mold, go with Campusano. At the college level, Riley Adams and Evan Skoug are so different that they aren't worth comparing. Adams, out of the University of San Diego, gets frequent comparisons to fellow former Torero Kris Bryant, though more because of his mechanics than because of his offensive outlook. He lacks a standout tool, but he can barrel baseballs up and can be a serviceable defender. Overall, it looks like a backup catcher profile, but it's a safer bet than Campusano or Melendez due to his career .305/.411/.504 line in San Diego's conference, the WCC. Evan Skoug, as profiled in the power bats demographic, has the best present pop of any player on this list, but his huge strikeout issues make him a risky pick, even for a college player. Another negative is that he has a decent chance of being forced to move to first base, as he is not on the defensive caliber of Adams, but a positive would be his strong work ethic and leadership skills. He is reportedly working extremely hard to hone his defensive skills and remain a catcher. Basically, nothing about him his neutral; scouts love his power and work ethic, but hate his strikeouts and aren't satisfied with his defense.

Tier III (Wong, Whatley, Varsho, Hunt, Morgan)
Connor Wong, as I stated in the last post, is only a catcher because he ended up behind a plate and realized he was pretty good. He's an above average runner, not just for a catcher but for any type of player, giving him a very unique profile. As a speedster with all around decent hitting abilities, he could end up in the Austin Barnes mold in which he splits time behind the plate and in the infield. Two players in less competitive conferences, Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley and UW-Milwaukee's Daulton Varsho, have played each other about even this season. Whatley slashed .302/.446/.509 with 11 home runs in the Summit League despite playing better in his sophomore season, while Varsho finished at .362/.490/.643 in the Horizon League. Both have thunder in their bats, generating plus power, but Varsho's overall better contact ability make him the better hitter, in my opinion. However, Whatley is the best defensive college catcher with a chance to go in the top 100 picks. Varsho, meanwhile, is nearly as good with the glove, but lags behind not only Whatley but most of the class with his below average arm. Both project to go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and who goes first is anybody's call. Blake Hunt is the only high school catcher in this tier (though Sam McMillan narrowly missed), with upside as high as Campusano or Melendez but more risk. He has a lot of mechanical issues in his swing, but they shouldn't be too difficult to fix and he could be an above average hitter. His calling card is his defense, which is the best among high school catchers. Overall, he's a less advanced Matt Whatley. Lastly, Joey Morgan joined Wong in the last post, as he projects as pretty average across the board. He should be able to stick behind home plate, and he should hit enough to be a backup, but nothing really jumps off the page with him. He's a breakout guy this year, so those that value trajectory would be inclined to take him before Whatley, who slumped this year.

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