After a fairly miserable debut in 2016 (.179/.263/.345), Judge has been unstoppable in his first full season, slashing .329/.448/.691 with 30 home runs through 84 games, already setting the Yankees rookie home run record and winning a Home Run Derby. His 197 wRC+ shows that he's creating nearly twice as many runs as the league average hitter, and although he has struck out in 29.8% of his plate appearances, he has also walked in 16.7%, providing value in more than just home run power. His outside-the-zone swing percentage is down from 33.6% last year to 24.1% this year, showing sustainable success. Mark McGwire holds the rookie record with 49 home runs, but Judge is just 19 away and could easily become the first rookie ever to hit 50 in a season. His on-base percentage sits at .448 right now, and even if he follows Steamer's fairly pessimistic projection and posts a .352 OBP for the rest of the season, he'll still finish at .408, so he's the whole offensive package. He's been worth 5.5 fWAR this year, well ahead of second-place Jose Altuve's 4.4.
Runner-up: Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians): 17 HR, 48 RBI, .332 AVG, 10 SB, 157 wRC+.
After Judge, there are a lot of players who have produced about the same amount this year, but I chose to put Ramirez in the runner-up spot because of the ridiculous amount of lineup protection in Houston, where George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa all could easily fill this spot. Ramirez has put up his own crazy-good numbers without the same amount of protection in the lineup, slashing .332/.388/.601 with 17 home runs and 27 doubles through 86 games. Adding ten stolen bases and good defense at third base, he has been worth 3.9 fWAR, holding up more than his fair share of the responsibility as part of the Indians young dynamic duo with Francisco Lindor. He's been especially hot as of late, slashing .401/.446/.774 since June 3rd, spearheading the Indians' run to the top of the AL Central.
Honorable mentions: Jose Altuve (13 HR, .347 AVG, 18 SB, 161 wRC+), George Springer (27 HR, .310 AVG, 2 SB, 164 wRC+), Carlos Correa (20 HR, .325 AVG, 0 SB, 161 wRC+), Mike Trout (16 HR, .337 AVG, 10 SB, 208 wRC+)
NL MVP: Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): 20 HR, 65 RBI, .325 AVG, 2 SB, 161 wRC+.
Bryce has been producing back at his 2015 levels, slashing .325/.431/.590 in the middle of a lineup that has been one of the most prolific in baseball. He sits second to Joey Votto in just about every offensive category, but because he adds value with good defense in right field, he truly contributes to the Nationals in every way he can. He slumped a bit in late May and into early June, but he seems to have rebounded and is slashing .433/.528/.700 in the month of July, currently sitting on an eight game hitting streak. Overall, he has been worth 3.8 fWAR.
Runner-up: Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): 26 HR, 68 RBI, .315 AVG, 3 SB, 167 wRC+.
Votto's edge over Paul Goldschmidt is razor thin, but I think he has just enough to take the runner-up spot, slashing .315/.427/.631 with 26 home runs through 88 games. Arguably the closest thing this generation of baseball players has to Ted Williams, Votto has walked in 16.1% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 10.9%. He hits for power, he gets on base, he makes the hitters around him better, and he's overall one of the very first bats I'd pick to be in my lineup this year. What's even crazier is that his .291 BABIP says that he may have been the recipient of bad luck so far, especially considering his career rate is .354, though his hard hit rate and soft hit rates aren't quite as stellar as they have been in the past, so who knows. What we do know is that Votto leads the NL in home runs (26), slugging percentage (.631), OPS (1.058), wOBA (.432), and wRC+ (167), and that he has been worth 3.8 fWAR.
Honorable mentions: Paul Goldschmidt (20 HR, .312 AVG, 13 SB, 153 wRC+), Daniel Murphy (14 HR, .342 AVG, 1 SB, 146 wRC+), Justin Turner (10 HR, .377 AVG, 2 SB, 183 wRC+), Ryan Zimmerman (19 HR, .330 AVG, 1 SB, 148 wRC+).
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox): 11-4, 2.75 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 178/22 K/BB.
During his time with the White Sox, Sale bounced back and forth between "very good" and "excellent," and when he was shipped over to a tougher division and a tougher home park in Boston, it was expected that his numbers would revert back to "very good," at least at first, as had happened with David Price. However, Sale had no intentions of letting that happen, instead putting himself on pace for what may be the best season of his career with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He has struck out 35.9% of the batters he has faced, which is a ridiculous number for a starter, meanwhile walking only 4.4%. He has been surprisingly consistent, as you might be surprised to hear he has just three scoreless starts this season, but he hasn't been blown up in any, either. His best start came on April 20th, when he struck out 13 Blue Jays over eight shutout innings, allowing four hits and walking just one. His worst start came in his return to Chicago, when the White Sox touched him up for six runs (five earned) over five innings, but he still struck out nine.
Runner-up: Dallas Keuchel (Houston Astros): 9-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 69/18 K/BB.
Keuchel has only made eleven starts due to injuries, but no pitcher other than Chris Sale has been able to step in and firmly take over this runner-up spot, with even the best pitchers' ERA's creeping up close to 3.00. Over a month ago, when Keuchel made his most recent start, he was the clear front runner for the AL Cy Young Award, holding a 1.67 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and just 48 hits allowed in 75.2 innings. He has given up more than two runs in just one of his eleven starts, when manager A.J. Hinch left him in too long and he gave up three runs in the ninth inning while vying for a complete game. Other than that easily avoidable bad-on-paper start, he is 9-0 with a 1.20 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. When he's on the mound, he's easily been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this year, and we're eagerly awaiting his imminent return.
Honorable mentions: Corey Kluber (7-3, 2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP), Jason Vargas (12-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Ervin Santana (10-6, 2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), Carlos Carrasco (10-3, 3.44 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals): 10-5, 2.10 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 173/27 K/BB.
Slowly and steadily, Max Scherzer has put up an amazing season. His 0.78 WHIP is lower than any full National League season since 1876, and if he can maintain the pace he is on, it will be the second lowest in MLB history, trailing only Pedro Martinez's 0.74 in 2000. He's also leading the MLB in ERA this year at 2.10, enough to give him the rare edge over Clayton Kershaw for NL Cy Young. He has absolutely dominated almost every time out, reaching double digits in strikeouts in 11 of his 18 starts and striking out at least one batter per inning in all 18. In terms of consistency, his worst month in terms of both ERA and WHIP was April, when he went 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, striking out 40 batters in 33.2 innings. Not bad for your worst month.
Runner-up: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers): 14-2, 2.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 159/22 K/BB.
We're seeing classic Clayton Kershaw, as he is in the middle of posting his fifth straight season with an ERA below 2.20 and a WHIP below 0.95. Like Scherzer, the highest ERA he has posted in any month was a 2.43 mark in May, and he has shown the uncanny ability to bounce back from tough starts and keep them from snowballing. He has only allowed more than two runs in a game four times this year, but in his subsequent start after each of those games, he is 4-0 with a 0.94 ERA and a 0.59 WHIP, striking out 39 in 28.2 innings. Nobody gets to Kershaw two starts in a row, and that's part of what makes him great.
Honorable mentions: Zack Greinke (11-4, 2.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), Robbie Ray (8-4, 2.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), Ivan Nova (9-6, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), Gio Gonzalez (7-4, 2.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP).
AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 30 HR, 66 RBI, .329 AVG, 6 SB, 197 wRC+.
See MVP write-up. If Judge gets his projected 252 additional plate appearances this year (Steamer) and literally strikes out in every single one, he'd still slash .176/.290/.370 with 30 home runs, which would still theoretically have him in the running.
Runner-up: Andrew Benintendi (Boston Red Sox): 12 HR, 51 RBI, .279 AVG, 9 SB, 106 wRC+.
Benintendi won't catch Judge, but he's having a fine season in his own right. Through 82 games, Benintendi, who just over two years ago was still suiting up for the Arkansas Razorbacks, is slashing .279/.357/.446 with 12 home runs and nine stolen bases, showcasing an all around game that will be hugely valuable for the Red Sox in the coming years. If you look closer, though, he's actually having a better season than the numbers say. He had a horrible slump in which he went hitless in seven straight games from May 10th to the 17th, totaling 26 at bats, but outside of that, he's been putting up All Star numbers: all 12 of his home runs (obviously) with a .305/.375/.487 slash line. With his low .299 BABIP, he'll likely finish the season with better numbers than he has right now. He has been worth 1.4 fWAR this year.
Honorable mentions: Trey Mancini (14 HR, 44 RBI, .312 AVG, 1 SB, 133 wRC+), Jordan Montgomery (6-4, 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), Yulieski Gurriel (11 HR, 44 RBI, .297 AVG, 1 SB, 115 wRC+), Danny Barnes (2-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)
NL Rookie of the Year: Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles Dodgers): 25 HR, 58 RBI, .261 AVG, 5 SB, 145 wRC+.
While Bellinger hasn't quite dominated the NL the way Aaron Judge has dominated the AL, he's been quite amazing in his 70 games, slashing .261/.342/.619 with 25 home runs. He may not hit .300 to back up his power, but he has supplemented his average .261 batting average with 33 walks, good for 11.3% of his plate appearances and a .342 on base percentage. Of course, when you're slugging over .600 with those 25 home runs, anything more than an acceptable OBP is just a bonus. He already has six multi-homer games. From May 5th to June 25th, a span of just 48 games, he blasted 21 home runs. His uppercut is, in my opinion, baseball's most aesthetically pleasing swing, and when you add in his great defense, he's a complete player. He's been worth 2.3 fWAR this season.
Runner-up: Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies): 9-7, 3.77 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 65/41 K/BB.
Freeland has been an enigma this year. The 8th overall pick of the 2014 draft, Freeland has kept his ERA under 4.00 despite pitching half his games in Coors Field, an extremely difficult place to be a pitcher. Oddly enough, he has been way better at Coors (5-4, 3.23 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) than he has been on the road (4-3, 4.35 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Additionally, he's somehow getting it done with a low strikeout rate (14%) and a high walk rate (8.8%) that should theoretically hurt him in an environment where any ball put in play is dangerous. He has induced 1.8 ground outs for every fly out, so he does have that going in his favor. In his final start before the All Star Break, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the White Sox and finished with 8.1 shutout innings on one hit, three walks, and nine strikeouts at Coors Field.
Honorable mentions: Jesus Aguilar (9 HR, 34 RBI, .294 AVG, 0 SB, 131 wRC+), Josh Bell (16 HR, 44 RBI, .239 AVG, 2 SB, 107 wRC+), Antonio Senzatela (9-3, 4.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), Ian Happ (13 HR, 31 RBI, .257 AVG, 3 SB, 122 wRC+).
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