Friday, July 7, 2017

2017 Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

First 5 rounds: Keston Hiura (1-9), Tristen Lutz (CBA-34), Caden Lemons (2-46), K.J. Harrison (3-84), Brendan Murphy (4-114), Nick Egnatuk (5-144)
Also notable: Devin Hairston (6-174), Bowden Francis (7-204), Jayson Rose (8-234), Alec Bettinger (10-294), Kyle Jacobsen (33-984)

The Brewers didn't follow any particular pattern, grabbing contact bats, power bats, high ceiling arms, and some safe bets. There isn't much excitement here, and I'd be a little disappointed if I were a Brewers fan, considering they had three of the first 46 picks. One interesting thing is that they seemed to be allergic to lefties, taking just one left handed thrower in their first 18 picks, including hitters and pitchers.

1-9: 2B Keston Hiura (my rank: 22)
I'm not a big fan of this pick, though many see Hiura as the most advanced bat in the class and I wouldn't be quick to disagree with them. He used a polished approach and a quick swing to put up a ridiculous .442/.567/.693 slash line with eight home runs over 56 games for UC-Irvine, walking in 19.1% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 14.6%. He seems to have improved his swing path last year, taking what was once a somewhat sweepy swing and making it more linear this year. His big question mark comes around defense, as he did not play the field in 2017 due to an elbow injury, one which some evaluators think could require Tommy John. Even when he does play defense, he's fringy at second base and a move to left field could be in line due to his below average arm. He still has a chance to be a special player though, and he signed for $4 million, which is $570,000 below slot.

CBA-34: Tristen Lutz (my rank: 39)
Lutz is a high ceiling Texas high schooler who could mash 30 home runs per season in Milwaukee. Though he is a tad old for his high school class, he has big time bat speed that portends well to being able to survive mechanical adjustments and help his offense play up. As of now, though, there are question marks about contact, and that swing path will need to be improved upon by pro coaches for Lutz to reach the majors. Lutz signed for just over $2.3 million, coming in at $368,400 above slot.

2-46: RHP Caden Lemons (my rank: 83)
The distance between Lemons' ceiling and floor is extremely wide, making him one of the biggest wild cards of the draft. Right now, he's all projection, throwing in the low 90's with terrible mechanics that will need to be cleaned up significantly. The Alabama high schooler stands 6'6", and once his delivery is cleaned up, it's easy to see him sitting in the mid 90's consistently. His secondary stuff is average at best right now, so this is a projection play through and through. He could burn out in the minors and never be heard from again in a baseball context, or he could develop into an ace. Lemons signed for $1.45 million, which is $43,500 below slot.

3-84: C/1B K.J. Harrison (my rank: 63)
Harrison is an advanced college bat from Oregon State, the top team in the nation for most of the season until they lost in the baseball equivalent of the Final Four. He's put up solid but not exciting stats for the Beavers, and he shifted his approach slightly in 2017 to try to hit for more contact, leading to a career high in batting average (.313) but a lower on-base percentage (.382) and a career low in slugging percentage (.498) and home runs (9). He's more of a high floor hitter than a low ceiling guy, one who could be an average first baseman at the major league level or, if everything goes according to plan, a Jason Castro-type starting catcher. Harrison signed at-slot for $666,600.

4-114: LHP Brendan Murphy (my rank: 137)
The only one of the Brewers' first 18 picks to throw left handed, Murphy is a high school pitcher from the Chicago area, one who isn't extremely exciting now but has a solid foundation to build on. He throws his fastball right around 90 with a solid changeup and a mediocre curveball from equally mediocre mechanics, and he has plenty of room for growth. Coming from a cold weather state, he has less mileage on his arm and it is more forgivable if he is less advanced. Murphy signed for $500,000, which is $31,400 above slot.

6-174: 2B Devin Hairston (my rank: 133)
Hairston was a fan favorite at Louisville, starting for three years and slashing .301/.355/.402 with seven home runs over his career. He's just 5'7" and shows very little power potential, but he has a quick swing and puts the bat to the ball well, striking out in just 11.6% of his plate appearances. He projects as a utility man once he works through the minor league levels but is a fun guy to have in the system.

Others: 5th rounder Nick Egnatuk is a raw high school infielder from New Jersey, one who has flashed all-around potential but has hurt himself with his aggressive approach and has been inconsistent with his power. 7th rounder Bowden Francis is another Chipola guy, one who can throw a mid 90's sinker out of the bullpen but who was used primarily as a starter for the Indians this year, where his fastball sits in the low 90's and didn't strike out too many batters. He'll be a sinker-slider reliever going forward. 8th rounder Jayson Rose took a small step back from his big sophomore year, but he was still effective for Utah (8-3, 3.35 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 82/43 K/BB), and he could be a back-end starter with his full arsenal, led by a plus changeup. However, everything else is fringe-average, and he could end up in the bullpen, but the Brewers will let him start for now. 10th rounder Alec Bettinger has been an important member of UVA's pitching staff for the past four years, showing much better in relief this year (8-0, 2.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 71/31 K/BB). The Northern Virginia native (Woodbridge) should move quickly through the minors and could be a middle reliever for the Crew soon. 33rd rounder Kyle Jacobsen probably won't sign, and will instead attend South Carolina. He has the tools to succeed, showing a line drive bat that can square the ball up consistently, but his swing is long and flat and isn't conducive to as much power as you would expect from his 6'1", 185 pound frame. He's a good but not great defender, and he could end up as a tweener who lacks the speed for center field but also lacks the bat for an outfield corner. Three years with the Gamecocks could change that.

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