First 5 rounds: Trevor Rogers (1-13), Brian Miller (CBA-36), Joe Dunand (2-51), Riley Mahan (3-89), Colton Hock (4-119), Ryan Lillie (5-149)
Also notable: Taylor Braley (6-179), Brady Puckett (15-449), Elliott Barzilli (32-959), Tyler Holton (35-1049)
The Marlins have arguably baseball's most barren farm system, and with three of the first 51 picks, they had a chance to restock it with the draft. Unfortunately, I think they blew that opportunity, and their farm system won't be getting the big boost it could have had. Though they took a high school pitcher with their first pick, Miami drafted just four high school players with their 41 picks, opting for three JuCo players and 34 college guys.
1-13: LHP Trevor Rogers (my rank: 25)
With guys like J.B. Bukauskas (ranked #6 on my list), Alex Faedo (#11), Jeren Kendall (#13), Nick Pratto (#14), Sam Carlson (#15), and many others left on the board, the Marlins had a plethora of great options for the thirteenth pick. Instead, they took high risk high school lefty Trevor Rogers with their first round pick, a player who I have nothing against but wouldn't consider this early in the draft. Rogers has a massive gap between his ceiling and his floor, as he could be a top of the rotation starter, or he could burn out in the low minors. Coming from Carlsbad High School in New Mexico, he's off the beaten prospect path, but the 6'6" lefty can scrape the upper 90's and comfortably sits in the low to mid 90's when he's at his best. His slider has sharp bite at times but needs further refinement, and his changeup a bit behind the slider. He'll need a lot of coaching to clean up his delivery and help him reach his ceiling, and he'll also turn 20 in November, making him the oldest high schooler that I have come across in this year's draft. Rogers has not signed yet, and isn't expected to come cheap with a commitment to Texas Tech.
CBA-36: OF Brian Miller (my rank: 55)
In my opinion, this is another reach. Miller is a solid all-around player, coming in with decent pop, good speed, good defense, and a solid ability to get on base. He had a good junior year for UNC, slashing .343/.422/.502 with seven home runs and 24 stolen bases, walking more (12.1%) than he struck out (11.1%). Miller has a long swing with good bat speed, yet it doesn't translate to much power because of his lack of loft. Personally, I see him as a second-division regular or as a solid fourth outfielder – a solid player, but not quite the value you want in the top 40. Miller signed for just under $1.9 million, right at slot.
2-51: 3B Joe Dunand (my rank: 139)
Dunand, who is Alex Rodriguez's nephew, has big time power. He broke out for 18 home runs this season, slashing .287/.368/.632 for NC State. He's also a pretty good defender, playing shortstop for the Wolfpack but profiling better at third base going forward. Lastly, he performed pretty well on the Cape (.326/.372/.511, 5 HR), but there's one big issue in his game that I think will do him in; he swings and misses way too much. At NC State this year, he put up an 18.6% strikeout rate while walking in just 7.9% of his plate appearances. Even on the Cape, he struck out in 18.6% and walked in just 4.1%. I just don't see his bat translating up, and I think he'll bust in the minors. Dunand signed for $1.2 million, which is $126,800 below slot.
3-89: 2B Riley Mahan (unranked)
Kentucky's second baseman broke out this year by slashing .336/.392/.618 with 15 home runs, but he also struck out in 18.7% of his plate appearances while walking in just 7.4%. He's also a mediocre defender that will likely end up an outfielder, but there is enough upside with the bat to kind of justify this pick almost. He does need to significantly improve his approach at the plate, because his bat will provide most of his value. Mahan signed for $525,000, which is $91,800 below slot.
4-119: RHP Colton Hock (my rank: 116)
This is the first time the Marlins took a player even within the range of where I ranked him. Hock began the season on the outskirts of the first round conversation, but didn't have the breakout junior year people hoped for and was instead a decent reliever for Stanford. Over 27 appearances, he essentially matched his sophomore season, putting up a 2.08 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP and striking out 35 in 47.2 innings. He throws in the low 90's with a big breaking curveball, and he stands at 6'5", all of which makes him an attractive player, but the strikeout rate is low, especially for someone who is already a reliever. There has been talk of converting Hock to a starter, though I'm not sure where the Marlins stand on that, and he'll need to develop a changeup. I did notice that his arm slot seems to be a bit lower this year from last year. Hock signed for $500,000, which is $54,000 above slot.
Others: 5th rounder Ryan Lillie spent two years as a reliever at UC-Riverside before transitioning to the rotation this year, and while he wasn't great (2-7, 4.69 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 80/20 K/BB), the stuff is there and he has a relatively high ceiling. Lillie throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a slider and a changeup, giving him the potential to crack an MLB rotation. 6th rounder Taylor Braley was a two-way player at Southern Miss, slashing .313/.461/.587 with 17 home runs while going 7-2 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Miami drafted him as a pitcher, meaning his last at bat was a "successful" sacrifice bunt that effectively ended USM's season because sacrifice bunting is a terrible idea 99% of the time with anybody and 100% of the time with a guy with Braley's bat. 15th rounder Brady Puckett was one of two Lipscomb stars to have disappointing seasons, the other being outfielder Michael Gigliotti. After a successful sophomore year where he went 9-2 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, much like Gigliotti, he had a great stint on the Cape, going 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP as a starter and positioned himself as a potential top 100 pick. However, as a junior, he went 8-6 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP against weak Atlantic Sun competition as his fastball dipped into the upper 80's. Puckett is a big dude, standing 6'9" and 240 pounds, and if he bounces back, he could be a back-end of the rotation workhorse. 32nd rounder Elliott Barzilli is a well-known name in college baseball, as he played for Georgia Tech in 2014 before transferring to Texas Christian for 2015-2017. Barzilli had his best year in 2016, slashing .339/.418/.518 with seven home runs for the Horned Frogs, but struggled to a .242/.304/.367 line this year with six home runs. He'll have the chance to work his way up as an infield/utility type. 35th rounder Tyler Holton probably won't sign, but has been nothing but dominant since coming to Florida State in 2016, going 13-7 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 36 games (28 starts), striking out 228 and walking just 64 in 187 innings. He sits in the upper 80's but can work off his fastball with an average slider and a good changeup, commanding everything well and racking up the K's due to his deception. If we see a velocity bump in 2018, he could work his way into the top 50 picks.
No comments:
Post a Comment