RHP Carmen Mlodzinski, South Carolina
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DoB: 2/19/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB in 25.1 IP
I want to start out by saying that I had been pronouncing his name as it is spelled since he was a well-known high schooler coming out of Hilton Head, South Carolina, and I only recently (like in the last week) found it it was actually pronounced "Muh-jinski." So needless to say, that's a bit of a shocker to me. Anyways, Mlodzinski could have gone in the top five rounds of the 2017 draft if he had been signable, but instead he headed upstate to Columbia to join the Gamecocks. His time there has been a bit of a roller coaster – as a freshman in 2018, he put up a 5.52 ERA and a 43/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings, not the flashiest numbers but reasonable enough for a freshman in the SEC. Three starts into what looked to be a promising sophomore season in 2019, he had a 5.91 ERA and an 11/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings, but he broke his foot and missed the rest of the season.
However, things changed when he got on the mound this past summer. Making up for lost time in the elite Cape Cod League, Mlodzinski put up a 1.83 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 34.1 innings, shutting down college baseball's best hitters along the way. His stuff was sharp, his command was sharp, and he put himself right in the middle of the first round conversation. This spring, though, has been a bit disappointing. His first two starts against Holy Cross (7 IP, 0 ER, 3 K) and Northwestern (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K) were strong, but he wasn't quite as good against Clemson (6 IP, 6 ER) and Cornell (5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 BB). His stuff was a bit diminished this spring, and some of the allure that surrounded him on the Cape has faded.
Over the summer, he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, a pitch that played up significantly due to his tremendous ability to sink and run it. He also added a sharp downer slider that he could morph into more of a cutter as well as a nice changeup, all of which he landed for strikes to both sides of the plate. This spring, the velocity was still there for the most part but his offspeed pitches softened up just a bit, lacking the big bite they had over the summer. His command was a bit more inconsistent as well, as evidenced by five walks in his final start of the season against a weaker Cornell lineup, and overall his stock dropped just a bit as he failed to miss bats.
All of that said, Mlodzinski still profiles well in the first round with a high floor and a pretty good ceiling. That fastball is still a weapon, with impressive running and sinking action that makes it tough to square up. With his cutter, slider, and changeup, even if they stay more in the range they've been this spring, he still has a #4 starter projection due to his ability to induce weak contact, especially on the ground. In order to outplay that #4 starter projection, he needs to do one of both of the following things: regain the feel he had for his offspeed pitches over the summer, and improve his command. The command isn't necessarily a problem, as it was well above average over the summer and still played solid-average this spring, but if he is going to get by as a pitch-to-contact, ground ball pitcher, he'll need above average to plus command in order to be a #3 starter or better.
As a safe bet, back of the rotation starter with the upside of a #2 or a #3, he fits somewhere in the back half of the first round. He has a workhorse 6'2" frame and no clear weaknesses, and that dominant summer on the Cape is still very fresh in scouts' minds, especially with the shortened spring season. If he does fall, he seems like a candidate to go back for second junior year in order to rebuild his stock, but my guess is he doesn't fall far enough for that to happen. Who knows, maybe he was just a little rusty at the outset of the season and the Mlodzinski who showed up over the summer was the real deal.
Spring footage with the flatter, but still impressive, stuff
Warmup pitches from the Cape over the summer
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