RHP Bobby Miller, Louisville
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DoB: 4/5/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-0, 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 34/9 K/BB in 23.1 IP
The second best pitching prospect on a loaded Louisville team this year, Miller started the season off in the second round range, but quickly pitched himself towards the first. Through four starts in 2020, he had a 2.31 ERA and a 34/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.1 innings, including a one run, twelve strikeout performance against Valparaiso on February 22nd. The big righty considerably improved his in-zone command in 2020, giving his big fastball/slider combination a much better chance to stick in the rotation than previously thought.
Miller is a huge guy, standing 6'5", and his long arm path makes him look even bigger. Additionally, he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for 99 if he wants to. His long arm action, plus the fact that he falls off a bit to his arm side as he releases the ball, puts great angle and life on the baseball that makes it feel like you're swinging at a kettle bell. His slider, which previously stood out more for its upper 80's velocity than for its movement, has shown more bite and flashes plus regularly, though it remains just a little bit inconsistent. He also adds a changeup and a curveball, but for the most part, it's that fastball/slider combination that scouts are excited about.
The command is the interesting piece here. He's never had terrible command, but he was prone to leaving the ball over the plate in the past and that led to a relatively pedestrian 3.83 ERA and 86/38 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore. Early reports from 2020 show improved command, and while he did walk nine batters in 23.1 innings, the improvement is apparently enough to give scouts confidence he can start. There is still risk due to the shorter track record of hitting his spots and the fact that he's been hit harder than his stuff says he should at times, but he's trending in the right direction.
Miller's ceiling is that of a frontline starter, and teams who like power fastballs would love to take him towards the end of the first round. Even if he is forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could make him a closer, and it gives him a bit of a higher floor. Refining that slider just a bit more will help him get there, while refining his changeup and command just a bit further will help him be that frontline starter. Georgia's Cole Wilcox and Miami's Chris McMahon are still likely to go ahead of him, but he does have a shot at beating those two out and being the first Saturday (college #2) starter off the board.
2020 start vs Valparaiso
2019 summer video with the US CNT
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