RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma
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DoB: 8/14/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-2, 4.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 37/5 K/BB in 23.2 IP
It's been an interesting ride for Cavalli, who remains one of the tougher arms to pin down in terms of projection. He made a lot of noise as a teenager in the Tulsa area and could have gone in the top five rounds out of Bixby High School in 2017, but he made it to campus in Norman and actually played both ways as a freshman and as a sophomore. After hitting six home runs as a freshman, his sophomore season saw him slash .319/.393/.611 with four home runs, but it has always been his arm that has intrigued scouts the most. On the mound, he posted a 3.28 ERA against Oklahoma's tough Big 12 schedule, but his 59/35 strikeout to walk ratio in 60.1 innings showed a lot of room for growth. Facing a tough non-conference slate to start 2020, he's put up a 4.18 ERA, but he's pitched better than the ERA says with a 37/5 strikeout to walk ratio and four of his eleven earned runs coming in the second inning of his start against San Diego State.
Watching him throw a bullpen, Cavalli easily looks like a top-15 pick. His fastball sits in the mid 90's while his power slider dives across the plate and his more downer curveball gives hitters a different look. Additionally, he's shown the makings of a good changeup, giving him a full arsenal with which to attack hitters. Everything comes from a very clean, easy delivery, and at 6'4", he looks like a starting pitcher. He was finally beginning to put it together in 2020, as evidenced by striking out eleven and walking none over five innings of work against a stacked Arkansas lineup on February 28th (though he did give up three runs on six hits). The biggest difference between 2019 and 2020 has been Cavalli's control, as his walk rate dropped from 13.1% to 5.2%. However, his control (ability to throw strikes) remains well ahead of his command (ability to hit spots).
As a sophomore, Cavalli tended to get hit harder than his stuff should indicate because he was often behind in the count. Meanwhile, in a small sample as a junior, he was generally tougher to hit but still got himself into trouble when he left pitches over the plate. That's a step in the right direction, but there is still work to be done. His fastball is relatively straight and in part due to his clean arm action, there's not much deception, so hitters have less trouble squaring up his 94-96. Going forward, he'll need to find a better way to keep hitters off balance, be that adding some deception to his delivery, employing more two seam or cut fastballs, or getting better about using his full array of secondary pitches to set his fastball up more effectively. Of course, improving his in-zone command would be very helpful as well. Additionally, despite his clean, easy delivery and athletic frame, he has a troubling injury history that dates back to his high school days, though there are no major injuries on the books. As one of the oldest players with first round aspirations (he turns 22 in August), he conceivably has less time to waste on the injured list if he wants to stay on track with his development.
Cavalli's complicated profile has given scouts pause for a while now, but he may have pitched just well enough in 2020 to make the risk easier to swallow. He checks most of the boxes you want to see (velocity, secondaries, frame, delivery), and his control is trending towards allowing another box to be checked. Meanwhile, the question marks still sit next to his name in the command, durability, and performance boxes, but all three were trending in the right direction in 2020. That has pushed his name firmly into the first round conversation, and there is a lot of chatter that he could go closer to the middle of the round than the back. The ceiling here is obviously that of a frontline starter, but with considerable risk. But hey, you're drafting him for how he'll pitch in the future, not for how he's pitched in the past.
2020 game footage vs Arkansas (home plate view)
2020 game footage (CF view)
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