1B Aaron Sabato, North Carolina
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DoB: 6/4/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 7 HR, .292/.478/.708, 0 SB, 16/22 K/BB in 19 games
Sabato wasn't a big prospect coming out of the Brunswick School in Greenwich, Connecticut, but got to work changing that the second he stepped foot in Chapel Hill. Earning a full time starting role right out of the gate, Sabato slashed .343/.453/.696 with 18 home runs in 64 games for the Tar Heels, earning the ACC Freshman of the Year Award in 2019. Pitchers were less keen on throwing to him in his draft-eligible sophomore year, and he started slowly by hitting just .188/.333/.375 with one home run and eleven strikeouts in his first nine games. However, he changed his approach and hit six home runs and drew twelve walks over his last six games to rebuild his draft stock.
Sabato is getting drafted 100% for his bat. He has tortured ACC pitching since the day he first donned the Carolina Blue, using tremendous brute strength and feel for the barrel to muscle baseball after baseball into the seats (25 in 83 games total). He gets to that power very consistently with a simple, powerful swing, and he has shown the ability to make adjustments. With a June birthday, he was old for a sophomore and therefore draft eligible, but that in turn makes him relatively young for the college draft class with a ton of production under his belt.
The pressure is squarely on Sabato's bat to perform. Some first basemen, like potential first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, are athletic enough around the bag to provide more defensive value than they get credit for. That's not the case with Sabato, who can perform the bare minimum tasks like picking low throws and fielding grounders, but who struggles to do much else out there. You can live with that at first base, but it's not ideal. He struck out at a 20% clip as a freshman and 28% over his first nine games in 2020, but he learned to force pitchers to come to him and struck out just 10% of the time while walking 32% of the time over his final ten games. The hit tool is certainly not as robust as a guy like Torkelson's, but he has shown enough to be confident he'll be an impact hitter at the next level. He didn't play in any top leagues over the summer to further solidify that, but that's nitpicking.
Right now, the upside for Sabato is that of a 30-40 home run hitter with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages, a true middle of the order threat. There are some small concerns about how often he'll be able to tap that power given his strikeout numbers and right/right profile, but he showed in 2020 that he could make adjustments and I doubt he'll have any trouble hitting at the next level. Even when they come with small concerns, proven college bats tend to do well on draft day – just ask Michael Toglia or Seth Beer. If you can hit, they'll find a place for you. Conventionally, you'd expect a guy like Sabato to go somewhere in the comp round, but he has a chance to crack the back of the first round due to his track record in a class where a lot of guys were not seen much.
2020 game footage, including a double off likely first rounder Max Meyer
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