C Patrick Bailey, North Carolina State
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DoB: 5/29/1999. B/T: S/R
2020 Stats: 6 HR, .296/.466/.685, 1 SB, 18/17 K/BB in 17 games
No catcher in the country has a better combination of upside with the bat and the glove than Bailey, who has hit for three years in the ACC while showing he can stick behind the plate no-doubt. After exploding for a .321/.419/.604 line and 13 home runs as a freshman in 2018, he regressed a bit to a .288/.390/.513 line and ten home runs as a sophomore, but he was off to a strong start for to his junior season with a .296/.466/.685 line and six home runs in just 17 games. As much as he's hit in college, glove is ahead of the bat, and he slashed just .231/.333/.308 in nine games with wood bats for the US Collegiate National Team over the summer. I saw him play during his big freshman season and wrote some brief notes, which you can read here.
Bailey's strength is on defense. He's a brick wall that blocks everything behind the plate and combines that with a strong arm, making him one of the better defensive catchers in the college class. Bailey also calls his own game behind the plate, an added bonus that shows his knowledge of the game. On the offensive side, Bailey is fairly balanced but might be a bit more power over hit. From the left side, he uses his strong frame to generate power from a clean, uphill swing, while his right handed swing is a bit shorter and choppier but still produces power. He's a patient hitter with a good eye at the plate, though there is a bit of swing and miss in his game and his strikeout rate rose to 24.7% in a small sample in 2020.
Overall, the bat is strong when you compare it to other catchers, but that's also considering the fact that there just aren't a lot of catchers who can swing it at a high level. It's fairly ordinary offensive profile when it's compared to the other first round college bats or even to the comp round/early second round guys, and it's his glove that has carried him to where he is. Of course, that glove takes an immense amount of pressure off his bat, and even if he doesn't hit, he has a great chance to be a backup at the big league level. In addition, with Adley Rutschman's and Joey Bart's only coming around every once in a while and usually going near the top of the draft, teams only get so many chances to get their hands on catchers with legitimate offensive and defensive ability.
The difficulty of finding catchers who can both hit and field at a high level bodes very well for Bailey's draft stock, and that pushes him right into the middle of the first round conversation. College catchers have a better track record than those at the high school level, and if it all clicks for Bailey, he could hit 25 or so home runs per year with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages and of course, great defense. Only a few current major league catchers can match that profile, so it's an extremely favorable ceiling. If the bat doesn't materialize, he fits well as a glove-first backup.
Batting practice with the US CNT
A right handed home run against Iowa this year
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