#10 North Carolina State at Virginia Tech
3/29: VT 10, NC State 2
3/30: NC State 14, VT 1
3/31: NC State 1, VT 0
I caught all of Game One, almost all of Game Two (left in 8th due to Passover), and the last few innings of Game Three (came late also due to Passover) this weekend, and here are some notes from what I saw. Unfortunately, English Field does not have a stadium radar gun, so I wasn't able to get velocities on all pitchers, though I was able to get some general ranges from a friend with a radar gun. Naturally, this list will focus more on the Wolfpack than the Hokies, as the Wolfpack are full of new faces that I haven't gotten to analyze before. I'll publish similar lists after the series with Louisville and Duke.
General Notes
Virginia Tech
The Hokies, now 11-15, continued their mediocre play with the series loss to the #10 Wolfpack. They managed to get to starter Michael Bienlien as well as relievers Nolan Clenney and Connor Centala in an eight run third inning on Thursday, letting offspeeds go and making the pitchers come to them. It didn't work against Johnny Piedmonte and Brian Brown, pitchers with better control, the next few days, and the team overall did not look good. The two bright spots for the team were Thursday starter Connor Coward (we'll get to him in a minute) and centerfielder Nick Menken, who made two spectacular catches. On Thursday, he laid out full sprint to catch a deep fly ball in left center, and on Friday, he crashed into the wall, again at full speed, while hanging onto a Brett Kinneman fly ball. So far, haven't seen much to be impressed by from the rest of the team though.
North Carolina State
Previously ranked #10 at D1Baseball, the Wolfpack improved to 23-5 and will hope to move up this week. They are clearly an offense-first team, with one of the game's most dangerous lineups including sluggers Brett Kinneman, Evan Edwards, Will Wilson, and Brad Debo, speedsters Josh McLain and Brock Deatherage, and freshman star Patrick Bailey. It is a team that focuses more on spraying line drives and home runs all over the field than on plate discipline, as many of their hitters seemed to chase pitches out of the zone looking to drive something. The aggressive approach has worked so far with the immense talent of their hitters, and it stands in stark contrast to a team like the famously patient Virginia Cavaliers. They're not scheduled to face any top tier arms nor have they already, so it will be interesting to see how that aggressive approach stacks up against some of the big arms they could face in the NCAA Tournament. Of the two best arm's they've faced, Clemson's Jacob Hennessy and Georgia Tech's Xzavion Curry, they managed fairly well against Hennessy but struggled against a dominant Curry.
Individual Notes
Connor Coward (VT Senior RHP)
2-2, 3.04 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 54/20 K/BB in 47 IP
Coward dominated the Wolfpack on Thursday, allowing just two unearned runs over eight innings on three hits and one walk, striking out nine. He wasn't throwing particularly hard, just 86-88 I was told, but he mixed his fastball, curveball, and changeup well and was able to locate them all around the plate while keeping the offspeeds down in the zone. A senior who has gotten better each year, he's more of a college pitcher than a pro prospect, but what he did against a talented NC State offense should be noticed and he could make a solid late round pick (30+) if he keeps pitching this way.
Jack Owens (VT redshirt Junior 2B)
1 HR, .295/.434/.400, 8 SB, 17/13 K/BB
Owens had a monster redshirt-sophomore season last year (5 HR, .358/.424/.504), but his power and contact are both down this year. Fortunately, though, his walks are up and he's getting hit by pitches at a crazy rate (12 in 26 games so far), giving him a high .434 on-base percentage. Owens is mostly a slap hitter and will have little to no power in pro ball if he makes it that far, so he will have to keep getting on base to keep his value up. I like that he has kicked up his walk rate this year, and his strikeout rate isn't too high, but overall I think the package is just a little light for pro ball. His defense at second base is pretty good, as he is athletic and can get to most balls hit his way.
Brett Kinneman (NC State Junior OF)
12 HR, .336/.418/.750, 3 SB, 22/16 K/BB
Kinneman has demolished opponents' pitching this season, and while he didn't pop any home runs in this series, he showed his talent by taking a Connor Coward fastball over right fielder Stevie Mangrum's head on Thursday, making it look easy in the process. He did chase some offspeed pitches out of the zone, so there is work to do and he's not a first round talent yet, but the lefty has a clean swing and a good enough eye in the zone to square up fastballs with ease. At this point, he's looking like he could be a top 100 pick, and if he can improve his plate discipline a little bit, he could crack the top 50 in time.
Brock Deatherage (NC State Senior OF)
5 HR, .324/.427/.510, 14 SB, 32/14 K/BB
Deatherage has had a very up and down career in Raleigh, slashing .317/.395/.482 as a sophomore in 2016 but dropping to .218/.304/.330 as a junior last year, leading to a 29th round selection in the draft. He has continued his streaky hitting this year, and with a huge game on Friday, he's back up to a career-best .324/.427/.510. He has a lean build and a ton of speed which plays on both sides of the ball. The streakiness in his bat stems from his aggressive approach and long swing, where he keeps his hands back before whipping the bat through the zone. That swing generates some impressive power, highlighted by a big home run on Friday that cleared the right field bullpen, but also leads to swing and miss. He's worth a top 20 round pick this year, but he could push himself into the top ten rounds if he cuts down on his strikeouts and stays consistent for the rest of the season.
Josh McLain (NC State Senior OF)
2 HR, .333/.348/.447, 5 SB, 10/4 K/BB
McLain is a little guy, listed at six feet tall and 165 pounds, but he knows his game. He's a speedy center fielder who can get to most balls, and he uses a short, quick swing to spray line drives and fly balls around the park. There's not much swing and miss in his game as he has a very good eye at the plate, but this leads to a low walk rate which saps his value. He doesn't have a high ceiling but as he continues to slap everything he sees into the outfield, he might not be a bad pick in the late rounds. Even though he's a senior, he's young for his class and is actually a month older than junior Brett Kinneman. He just has to get his walk rate up, because his strikeout rate has dropped each of the four seasons he has been in Raleigh.
Will Wilson (NC State Sophomore SS)
7 HR, .324/.427/.581, 0 SB, 17/18 K/BB
He's not draft eligible yet, but he may be the highest drafted player on this team when it's all said and done. The sophomore shortstop is not the biggest guy in the world, but he generates plenty of power for his size through a quick, whippy swing that generates a ton of torque. His power is mostly to the pull side and probably will always remain so, but he still has the ability to drive line drives into right field with zip. He can lose control of the strike zone at times and has a bit more swing and miss than you'd expect given his 17/18 strikeout to walk ratio, but that should be fixed as he matures, and he already shows a generally good eye at the plate. Defensively, he's unspectacular at shortstop and will probably have to move off the position. He has a strong arm but also has a tendency to sail his throws, and his range is so-so, so he might be better off at second or third base. I really like him as a prospect, and he might be a first round pick in my book in 2019 if he keeps hitting the way he is.
Michael Bienlien (NC State Sophomore RHP)
2-2, 4.96 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 11/4 K/BB in 16 IP
Bienlien was a 40th round pick out of high school in Chesapeake, Virginia in 2016 (in fact the same Great Bridge program that produced Justin Upton), though he hasn't gotten great results quite yet with the Wolfpack. Bienlien started off strong on Thursday, but his command deteriorated each inning and he was knocked out in the third as Tech went on to score eight runs in the inning. Bienlien throws from a high three quarters arm slot and can run his fastball up to 95 while sitting 91-93, and it has good run on it that makes it tough to square up. His curveball is kind of slurvy and needs to be tightened, and the Hokies were able to get to him when they realized he struggled to throw strikes with it. When it comes to his fastball, his overall control is better than his within-the-zone command, but he has been able to keep his walks down throughout his career and that was apparent in the early going on Thursday. He just needs to tighten his breaking stuff and his junior year next year will be telling.
Patrick Bailey (NC State Freshman C)
3 HR, .309/.400/.485, 9/10 K/BB
Bailey was a heralded recruit out of high school in High Point, North Carolina, finding himself drafted in the 37th round in 2017 before coming to campus. He has lived up to his billing and more so far, showing power and a surprisingly keen eye at the plate. Despite being a true freshman who doesn't turn 19 until May, he has walked more than he has struck out and continued to select good pitches during this series. He gets his power from a clean swing with few holes, and his power should increase as he fills out his frame. Behind the plate, he shows the tools to stick at catcher, with a strong arm and good mobility. At times, he tried to do too much or rush himself, which led to a throwing error on Thursday, but it's important to remember that he's just 18. In Kinneman, Wilson, and Bailey, this team could have a top 100 or even a top 50 pick in each of the next three drafts.
Others
Joe Freiday Jr. (Virginia Tech): 6'4" catcher with a ton of power and arm strength, surprisingly good defense behind the plate but too much swing and miss at this point to be seriously considered as a pro prospect
Evan Edwards (NC State): JuCo transfer slashing .318/.438/.612 with 8 home runs this season, using a long, quick swing to generate plenty of power and hard contact. Does have swing and miss in his game due to the length of his swing
Brad Debo (NC State): Sophomore who only DH'd this weekend, put up big numbers as a freshman (.335/.387/.493) but has slumped a bit this year (.271/.386/.371). Value is in his bat, but his swing includes some arm bar and I think teams have taken advantage of that
Kent Klyman (NC State): Sophomore who has been dominant with a running high 80's fastball and a good slider, decent command and an imposing presence at 6'7"
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