Season Preview: AL Central

Division Crown Contenders: Indians, Twins
Unlikely to Contend: White Sox, Royals, Tigers

Like most divisions this year, the AL Central has a clear favorite, and in this case it's the Cleveland Indians. It's not that the Indians are necessarily on the same level as the Yankees or Astros – I think they actually peaked in 2016 – but that the division is overall pretty weak as usual and that they are the only real powerhouse in the division. The Twins had a great offseason and have a better chance at catching the Indians than most people think, but it doesn't change the fact that all smart bets would be on Cleveland. I do think the Twins have a very good chance at capturing a Wild Card, and it'll be a fun three-way battle between them, the Angels, and whoever is in second place between the Red Sox and Yankees. The White Sox will be a fun team to watch, given that the fruits of their rebuild are now beginning to reach the majors, and some of them are ready to make a serious impact. Down at the bottom, the Royals and Tigers look unlikely to make much noise, given the personnel losses suffered in Kansas City and the rebuild occurring in Detroit.

Cleveland Indians
Notable Additions: Yonder Alonso, Rajai Davis, Carlos Torres
Notable Losses: Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson, Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, Boone Logan
Summary: A very good team that isn't quite a super team, but they can hold their own against the league powerhouses with a multitude of big bats and high level arms.

The Indians lost their fair share of players this offseason, most notably on offense and in the bullpen. They were able to replace Carlos Santana with Yonder Alonso and Austin Jackson with Rajai Davis, but the offense will otherwise lean heavily on a bounce-back from Michael Brantley if it wants to be as good as last year's. Fortunately, having a healthy Brantley could be better than any free agent addition, as he has played just 101 games over the past two seasons but was worth 9.6 fWAR from 2014-2015 when healthy. Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, and the aforementioned Alonso form a very good core for the lineup with a healthy Brantley, and a breakout from Bradley Zimmer could be icing on the cake for a very good team. They do lack some depth though, as I would not be too confident in a bench made up of Brandon Guyer, Tyler Naquin, Giovanny Urshela, Yan Gomes, and Francisco Mejia, especially in the inevitable case of injuries when one or more will need to step up. On the mound, the rotation looks as good as ever, with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin, and Mike Clevinger holding down the fort until Danny Salazar returns from a shoulder injury. The bullpen did take heavy losses, losing Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, and Boone Logan, all productive relievers, while replacing it with an inferior contingent of Carlos Torres, Matt Belisle, Craig Breslow, and Neil Ramirez. That said, Cody Allen and Andrew Miller form one of the best one-two bullpen punches in baseball, and Dan Otero is another high-level arm. This team has some holes, so I wouldn't classify it as a super team, but they're primed for another deep postseason run.

Minnesota Twins
Notable Additions: Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Logan Morrison, Erick Aybar
Notable Losses: Hector Santiago, Glen Perkins, Bartolo Colon, Matt Belisle
Summary: Extremely improved team with balanced offense and rotation, lack star power but will contend for a Wild Card spot

The Twins look like they'll be one of the most improved teams of 2018. A very good offseason saw them lose no big pieces, save for Glen Perkins if only because of his service time, but plenty of cost effective additions. Logan Morrison adds a 30 homer bat to an offense that already has some nice pieces in Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Joe Mauer, and Byron Buxton, who doubles as arguably baseball's best defensive outfielder. Losing Jorge Polanco for half the season hurts, but the team has a deep lineup with quite a few guys who are capable of stepping up into larger roles if necessary. It doesn't quite match up with Cleveland's offense, but it's not blown out of the water either. On the mound, Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn are welcome additions to slot in with Jose Berrios, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson, and the Twins do have a few arms in the high minors that could step in if necessary. Again, it lacks the true ace the Indians have in Corey Kluber, but they should get consistent quality efforts out of each of their starters. The bullpen could be better, but Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke are big additions that at least make this year's edition better than last year's. Overall, the Twins improved significantly on what wasn't a great team last year, and they have a very good shot at a Wild Card spot. I wouldn't, however, expect them to challenge the Indians unless a lot went right.

Chicago White Sox
Notable Additions: Welington Castillo, Miguel Gonzalez, Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, Hector Santiago
Notable Losses: Derek Holland, Jake Petricka, Zach Putnam, Mike Pelfrey
Summary: Very young team that is just now beginning to come out of its rebuild, not quite ready yet but they do have a lot of potential future stars to watch

The White Sox won't contend, but I think this will be the year they get themselves up out of the cellar and at least play some competitive baseball. Behind slugger Jose Abreu, breakout hitter Avisail Garcia, and the newly signed Welington Castillo, the offense has a lot of young guys to watch, including Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson, Ryan Cordell, Eloy Jimenez, and a personal favorite of mine, Nicky Delmonico. It could really go in any number of directions given the inexperience of most of the hitters, but it will definitely be interesting and should be trending up. The rotation is the same story, as James Shields may be the worst Opening Day starter in baseball this year, but up-and-comers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Carson Fulmer, and if we're lucky, Michael Kopech, will all get a chance to make their marks this year. Additionally, once Carlos Rodon returns from his shoulder injury, we can see the former 3rd overall pick try to work his way up to stardom as well. The bullpen is rebuilt with Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan coming in to replace Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam, and more young guys should push their way through the cracks to join that duo as well as Nate Jones and Danny Farquhar. It's not a great bullpen, but the White Sox aren't looking to contend anyways. I could definitely see them finishing near .500 though.

Kansas City Royals
Notable Additions: Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, Ricky Nolasco, Wily Peralta, Jesse Hahn
Notable Losses: Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Melky Cabrera, Brandon Moss, Jason Vargas, Mike Minor, Ryan Buchter, Scott Alexander, Chris Young
Summary: The Royals are about to enter into another rebuild, but management did decide to build at least a somewhat competitive team for 2018 and they at least won't roll over and play dead as they begin to sell off assets

The Royals' window to contend seems to have closed, but they got a World Series Championship in 2015 so they have to be happy with how it went down. Now, they're left with a shallow MLB roster and an even shallower farm system after two of the franchise faces, Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain, left via free agency. It's time to start rebuilding, which the Royals have been to a small extent, so it wouldn't be surprising to see some moves at the deadline. The team isn't terrible, as the front office clearly put some effort into trying to be competitive by bringing back Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar while signing Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, and Ricky Nolasco, among others, so there is at least something to look forward to in 2018. The Hosmer and Cain-less offense is now led by Moustakas, Duda, Whit Merrifield, and Salvador Perez, plus hopefully a long, long awaited breakout from Jorge Soler. The defense is pretty good, too, with Perez and Alex Gordon owning some of the best gloves in baseball and Jay and Escobar being capable of some highlight reel plays as well. Ricky Nolasco replaces Jason Vargas in the rotation, with Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Hammel sitting atop the veteran unit. The Royals also have plenty of big league-ready prospects who can step in, such as Jake Junis (not technically a prospect after throwing 98.1 innings last season), Eric Skoglund, and Scott Barlow. The crop of prospects isn't nearly as good as the that of the White Sox, but it will be interesting nonetheless, at least on the mound. The bullpen saw significant turnover too and will likely not be as good this year, one major weakness for the team. Overall, they won't contend, and it's likely the beginning of another rebuild in Kansas City.

Detroit Tigers
Notable Additions: Francisco Liriano, Mike Fiers, Leonys Martin, Travis Wood
Notable Losses: Ian Kinsler, Alex Presley, Bryan Holaday, Tyler Collins, Bruce Rondon
Summary: Rebuilding team that lacks impact players outside of Miguel Cabrera, Nicholas Castellanos, and Michael Fulmer, likely to continue rebuild through the season

It was a quiet offseason in Detroit, as the rebuild is on and the team is set to go dormant for a couple of seasons. Justin Verlander and J.D. Martinez were shipped off during the season, and Ian Kinsler is gone to Los Angeles, leaving Miguel Cabrera as the sole star remaining on the team. If nothing else, Cabrera is a fun one to watch, sitting 38 home runs shy of 500 for his career and already possessing a Hall of Fame resume. He was one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball last year and should bounce back from his .249/.329/.399 slash line from last season. Joining him on offense will be Nicholas Castellanos and fellow long, longtime veteran Victor Martinez, who is 39 and entering his 17th major league season. One guy to watch will be third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who came over from Chicago in the Justin Wilson trade and who looks like an early AL Rookie of the Year candidate. Mike Mahtook, Dixon Machado, and Victor Reyes are more guys who could see increased playing time this year and try to make their mark. The rotation is definitely a weak spot, led by Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann, Francisco Liriano, and Mike Fiers, of which only Fulmer can be considered above average at this point. Daniel Norris as well will try to bounce back from a tough 2017. The bullpen has a couple of nice pieces at the top in Shane Greene and Alex Wilson, but it's otherwise pretty barren and will rely on a lot of young guys to step up. Fortunately, the Tigers seem to be hoarding right handed pitching prospects, so we could see guys like Beau Burrows, Franklin Perez, and even Kyle Funkhouser try to break through onto the weak pitching staff. Rookies are fun to watch, but they don't always win games, so don't expect Detroit to finish much higher than .400.