Sunday, June 3, 2018

2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 Shortstops

Many shortstops end up moving off the position, but if they can stay there, their bats get a lot of slack and they can become extremely valuable players with just a little bit of offensive ability. This year's crop is extremely high school heavy, with the top five all coming from the prep ranks and the top college prospect being likely second or third rounder Cadyn Grenier. As usual, there is a lot of upside here.

1. Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA)
Turang is one of the tougher players to project in this year's draft. Entering his junior year of high school, he was an early favorite to go first overall in 2018, but his stock slipped with an unremarkable performance in the summer after that junior season and good but not great performance this spring. He still projects as a first round pick, potentially even approaching the top half of the round, due to his broad skill set including his feel to hit, possible power projection, and ability to play shortstop. Though he's very skinny, he has a whippy swing, and while I don't see him becoming a power hitter, his feel for the barrel should help him get to his power enough to where he hits 15 home runs per season. He has an advanced approach at the plate and runs very well, and when you combine that with good defense at shortstop, you have a guy that can set the table for the lineup. If he can regain the magic he had earlier in his high school career, he could be an All Star. He's committed to LSU.

2. Xavier Edwards (North Broward Prep, FL)
Edwards isn't as likely to stick at shortstop as Turang, but he's faster and can nearly match Turang's hitting ability. Despite being a switch hitter, he employs a very good approach at the plate and is a safer bet than most high schoolers to hit for high on-base percentages at the next level. Power is harder to project with high school switch hitters because their swings are often raw, and while Edwards won't hit 20 home runs in a season, there is enough power in that swing that he should hit plenty of doubles and triples in the majors. His excellent speed helps him get to everything at shortstop, but there is risk that he moves to second base if his arm doesn't improve. He is committed to Vanderbilt and is rumored to be a tough sign, though as a likely first round pick, it's hard to envision him attending college.

3. Jeremiah Jackson (St. Luke's Episcopal HS, AL)
Jackson is another player who risks not being able to stay at shortstop long term, but his bat is trending in the right direction. After a mediocre showing on the summer showcase circuit, he showed up for his senior year of high school with glasses and has seen his hitting improve tremendously, though there is worry that it could be an illusion as he faces inferior Mobile-area opponents. He employs an all-fields approach which has worked very well for him this spring, employing a long stride and quick hands to drive the ball to the gaps. He could start to hit for more power as he gets stronger, and if he can improve his defense at shortstop, he's got his ticket to the majors. However, he doesn't have the best reaction time out there, and may end up at second base. He's committed to Mississippi State.

4. Jonathan Ornelas (Kellis HS, AZ)
Ornelas is a fast rising prospect this spring, using his big swing and hard-nosed style of play to grow his ceiling. If he can make contact at an adequate rate, he could be a candidate to blast 20+ home runs per season, and when you combine that with his good defense and the ability to stick at shortstop, he's got a lot going for him. The only thing knocking him down is the volatility of his bat, as contact may be an issue at the next level, and while he generates a lot of power for his size, he's a skinny guy at 6' 165, and it's not true plus power. He should go in the second round and is committed to Tennessee.

5. Osiris Johnson (Encinal HS, CA)
Johnson is a very similar player to Ornelas, with the only real difference being that he's not as likely to stay at shortstop. He too has a big, powerful swing with at least some ability to make contact, and he has performed better and better as the high school season has gone on. He's also extremely young for a high school senior, not turning 18 until October, which buys him some slack if he doesn't develop immediately. His cousin is Jimmy Rollins, and he is committed to Cal State Fullerton.

Others: Cadyn Grenier (Oregon State), Blaze Alexander (IMG Academy), Jeremy Pena (Maine)

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