Wednesday, June 20, 2018

2018 Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

First 5 rounds: Trevor Larnach (1-20), Ryan Jeffers (2-59), DaShawn Keirsey (4-124), Cole Sands (5-154)
Also notable: Charles Mack (6-184), Chris Williams (8-244), Regi Grace (10-304)

Aside from their first pick, the Twins seemed to avoid most of the conventional names, instead going for less well known, perhaps bargain picks so they could save money and go over slot on a couple of high schoolers at the back end of the first ten rounds. From the surface, it doesn't look like a great draft for Minnesota, but only time will tell if they were onto something and found talent hiding in plain sight.

1-20: OF Trevor Larnach (my rank: 14)
Larnach, who is still playing in the College World Series for Oregon State, was their only big name selection and is by far my favorite pick of theirs. After hitting just three home runs in his first two seasons in Corvallis, Larnach broke out in a huge way this year by slashing .336/.466/.645 with 18 home runs and a 54/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games heading into the CWS. He lacks much defensive value, profiling as a decent left fielder or a mediocre right fielder, but the bat can definitely carry him. The power is real, as his exit velocities have been exceptional this spring coming from a quick left handed swing that gets the barrel into the zone in a hurry. The strikeout rate is high at 19.5%, but so is the walk rate at 17.3%, and he profiles as a guy who can hit 25 home runs per season in the majors while maintaining on-base percentages north of .350. He's your typical number five hitter in a lineup. Slot value is $3.12 million, but he obviously hasn't signed yet as he plays in Omaha.

2-59: C Ryan Jeffers (unranked)
UNC-Wilmington was known as the premier mid-major offense school for a few years until Tennessee Tech took over this year, and right in the middle of it was catcher Ryan Jeffers. The 6'4" Raleigh native capped his three year career with a huge junior season, slashing .315/.460/.635 with 16 home runs and a 44/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games. Though his track record with wood bats isn't all that great, his frame will be very conducive to helping his power play up at the next level. Behind the plate, he's a decent defender, showing a good chance to stick as a catcher but no guarantee. He already signed for $800,000, which is $340,600 below slot, and knocked a pair of singles in his minor league debut at rookie level Elizabethton.

4-124: OF DaShawn Keirsey (unranked)
The Twins didn't have a third round pick, but they went over slot in the fourth round to pick up Utah outfielder DaShawn Keirsey. His sophomore season ended with a violent crash against an outfield wall and a mangled hip, but he still put together a great junior year by slashing .386/.440/.609 with four home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 32/15 strikeout to walk ratio. He shows pretty good contact ability, as evidenced by the 14.2% strikeout rate, though he doesn't walk much (6.7%) and doesn't hit for much power. That power is mostly to the gaps right now, as he did hit 23 doubles and five triples as opposed to the four home runs, and he may add more as he fills out his frame, though likely not much. He was a plus runner before the injury, and while it took him a while to get going this year, he still shows good speed. Personally, I think the overall package is a little light, especially considering that his $600,000 signing bonus was $157,400 over slot.

5-154: RHP Cole Sands (unranked)
Sands was a well-regarded prospect coming out of high school in 2015, and while he hasn't really built on his stock at Florida State, it hasn't faded too far. He's been fairly inconsistent, and this year he went 7-4 with a 4.54 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an 88/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 75.1 innings. He has the talent to be a major league starter, and he has flashed it frequently, but his inconsistency has kept him from putting it all together for stretches at a time. He throws in the low to mid 90's and flashes a plus slider at times, and his changeup is decent. When he's going right, he has three good pitches that could lead him to a mid-rotation future, but when he's not, his stuff flattens out and he struggles to throw strikes. Hopefully pro coaching can iron it all out. He hasn't signed yet, with pick value sitting at $330,400.

Others: 6th rounder Charles Mack is very raw as a player, which is understandable because he's a high schooler out of Buffalo. He'll be a project for the Twins, because his hands start low and won't be able to climb fast enough to catch up to pro pitching. He does hit for plenty of power when he gets into one, which is the incentive here, and he may be able to stick in the infield as a second or third baseman. 8th rounder Chris Williams was a big time power hitter in the middle of the Clemson lineup, slashing .281/.401/.562 with 18 home runs and a 52/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 63 games. He's a stocky 6'1" guy who will have to hit for more contact, but he brings a lot of established power for an eighth rounder. He's not a lock to stick behind the plate, with a pretty decent chance he ends up at first base, putting pressure on his bat. 10th rounder Regi Grace was one of two overs-slot signings at the end of the top ten rounds, showing an improving fastball that's up into the mid 90's at this point and an improving breaking ball as well. The 6'1" high school lefty from the Jackson, Mississippi area is definitely a project, considering his mechanics are mediocre, but he has high upside.

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