Saturday, June 16, 2018

2018 Draft Review: Cleveland Indians

First 5 rounds: Noah Naylor (1-29), Ethan Hankins (1-35), Lenny Torres (CBA-41), Nick Sandlin (2-67), Richard Palacios (3-103), Adam Scott (4-133), Steven Kwan (5-163)
Also notable: Raynel Delgado (6-193), Antoine Duplantis (19-583), Cody Farhat (23-703)

The Indians like to mix up their drafts and grab some of the less conventional players in the early rounds, then move on to high floor guys as the draft moves forward. While first rounder Noah Naylor isn't an ultra-unique player, the next three picks definitely fit that description, and this strategy usually works well for them. Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, and Shane Bieber are their best recent draft picks, showing that they do well with pitchers (Brady Aiken aside), and they'll look to add to their success this year. Interestingly the players they selected early from college all had great strikeout to walk ratios, with pitchers Nick Sandlin (2nd round) and Adam Scott (4th round) combining for a 281/36 ratio and hitters Richard Palacios (3rd round) and Steven Kwan (5th round) combining for a 31/100 ratio.

1-29: C Noah Naylor (my rank: 29)
I'm not a fan of taking high school catchers early, but I am okay with this Noah Naylor pick in the first round. The younger brother of Padres prospect Josh Naylor, Noah as plenty of power but also shows advanced plate discipline for his age, giving him the opportunity to be an impact hitter at the major league level. While most catchers who have to move off the position usually end up at first base, he has the athleticism to play third base, and that really helps his stock if he doesn't stick as a catcher. He has room to add power, in my opinion, if he can gain more ground with his swing, though his defense could use work. He has a strong arm but needs to improve his receiving; as with all high catchers, there is risk here, but I think the risk is less than most and he has the potential to be an impact player in Cleveland. The Toronto-area native has not signed yet, with the slot-value sitting just over $2.3 million.

1-35: RHP Ethan Hankins (my rank: 22)
The Indians made a somewhat similar pick with Brady Aiken with the 17th selection in 2016, but they'll hope Hankins performs a bit better. He's a very interesting prospect (a theme you'll notice in this Cleveland draft), as he had top five buzz entering the spring but found his stock bouncing all over the place throughout the season. Hankins is a high school pitcher from the Atlanta area that throws his fastball in the mid 90's, touching 98, and the lateral movement on that fastball makes it a plus-plus pitch. On top of that, he can command it well, making it nearly un-hittable. His changeup is also advanced for a high schooler, with his breaking ball being the only question for him, stuff-wise, when he's healthy. He throws a slider and a curve, and while neither has been particularly special, I do like the shape on the curve and I think it could develop into a usable pitch. He's projectable at 6'6" and is younger for the class with his 18th birthday coming less than a month ago in May, and together that adds up to a top ten profile. However, there are some significant downsides in his profile beyond just his breaking ball. He missed a month earlier this season with shoulder issues, which are a very big deal for young pitchers. The effects of the injury caused his stuff to be very inconsistent this year, with his fastball dipping below 90 at times and his changeup occasionally flattening out. Hankins has a wide range of possible outcomes as a pitcher, anywhere from becoming an ace to a high leverage reliever to an A-ball could-have-been that blows out his shoulder and never is the same. Time will tell, but the Indians did have three of the first 41 picks and could afford to take a risk on this one. He has not signed, but will likely require more than the just over $2 million slot in order to be drawn away from Vanderbilt.

CBA-41: RHP Lenny Torres (my rank: 43)
Torres is another guy with a bit of a unique profile, as he is a skinny, 6'2" high school right hander from Beacon, New York, about 50 miles north of the Bronx. He gets great arm speed in his delivery, truly unleashing his pitches rather than forcing them, and he runs his fastball up to the mid 90's consistently. The live armed righty also has a pretty good slider which should get better with pro coaching, and he has a decent changeup as well. Like Hankins, he's a high risk pick due to the fact that he's just so raw as a player, which is understandable coming from New York, but he's very young for the class and won't be 18 until October. He also hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting just over $1.7 million.

2-67: RHP Nick Sandlin (unranked)
Sandlin is a fascinating player who had a fantastic season at Southern Miss in a very interesting way. The 5'11" righty went 10-0 with a 1.06 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 144/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 102 innings, turning in one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory. He is the ultimate deception pitcher, sometimes throwing overhand, sometimes, submarine, and everywhere in between. He doesn't throw particularly hard, sitting anywhere from the upper 80's to the low 90's, but the fastball is so hard to hit due to its life and the fact that you'll have no idea where it's coming from. He throws a slider, curve, and changeup, and all of them can come from any arm slot. He has the stamina to last as a starter, averaging almost seven innings per start and throwing three complete game shutouts this year, but pro hitters might be able to pick up on the deception. He did dominate the Cape Cod League as well, putting up a 1.99 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 39/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, though that was as a reliever. The Indians will run him out as a starter, but his stuff will play up in relief and that may be his ultimate destination. Fun fact, he was the first Indians selection this year to have been born in the 20th century. Feel old yet? He signed for $750,000, which his $189,700 under slot.

3-103: SS Richard Palacios (unranked)
Palacios has played shortstop at Towson University, but he's probably a second baseman at the next level. He has the bat to profile there, putting up a .301/.457/.515 line with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 16/52 strikeout to walk ratio as a junior. That strikeout to walk ratio stands out the most, as he is very selective and gets on base at a great clip while also avoiding swinging through bad pitches. That should help him advance fairly quickly through the minors, with the rest of his offensive game showing average or better. Because speed and plate discipline are his only plus tools, he'll probably end up a utility guy who plays second base and some outfield, but the ability to move quickly makes him an attractive option. He already signed for $475,000, which is $69,200 below slot.

Others: 4th rounder Adam Scott is coming off a breakout senior year at Wofford where he went 8-5 with a 3.14 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an excellent 137/18 strikeout to walk ratio. The polished left hander will try to work his way up as a back-end starter, but his biggest contribution so far has been signing for just $50,000, saving the Indians $356,300 against their bonus pool. 5th rounder Steven Kwan plays center field at Oregon State, and I'm actually watching him in the College World Series as I type this. Kwan is a similar player to his teammate, fourth overall pick Nick Madrigal, showing great bat to ball and speed abilities from a skinny, 5'8" frame. He slashed .357/.465/.463 with a pair of home runs, 14 stolen bases, and an excellent 15/48 strikeout to walk ratio. He'll never hit for power, but the combination of patience, contact, and speed should get him a job as a fourth outfielder. 6th rounder Raynel Delgado is a switch hitting high schooler from Florida who generates power from a big, powerful swing that causes his eye level to change as he swings. He was drafted as a third baseman but his position at the next level remains unclear; the bat is the attractive piece here, and the ceiling is high if Cleveland can streamline his swing. He did sign for $900,000, which is $664,400 over slot. I'm not sure 19th rounder Antoine Duplantis signs here, possibly heading back to LSU for his senior year. He's well known to college fans as a three year starter in Baton Rouge, putting up three very similar seasons that combined for a .324/.381/.420 slash line, six home runs, 51 stolen bases, and an 88/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 203 games. He's a contact hitter with the ability to get on base, steal bases, and play solid defense in center field. 23rd rounder Cody Farhat is another well-known college performer, manning center field for Texas Tech. He was better as a sophomore (.343/.438/.569, 3 HR, 21/16 K/BB) than as a junior (.294/.420/.443, 5 HR, 36/31 K/BB), but the biggest value is in his glove, as he is an excellent defensive center fielder. 

No comments:

Post a Comment