Friday, July 10, 2020

2020 Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

1-9: OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS (FL)
CBA-35: C Drew Romo, The Woodlands HS (TX)
2-46: RHP Chris McMahon, Miami
3-81: LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson
4-110: RHP Case Williams, Douglas County HS (CO)
5-140: SS Jack Blomgren, Michigan

I really like what the Rockies did here, especially at the top of the draft. Coors Field and Zac Veen's projectable power is is a match made in heaven, and they never expected him to make it all the way down to nine. While that pick really defines this class for me, I did like the next two picks as well. Drew Romo's glove looks like it could be hugely valuable for pitchers trying to work in high altitude, and I thought Chris McMahon had back of the first round value and he could be a steal in the second round. Later on, I'm really interested by Sam Weatherly's left arm but I'm far from sold on his strike throwing ability, and of course, I love a good hometown pick, so Castle Rock's Case Williams provides that (plus undrafted Blake Goldsberry). Lastly, Jack Blomgren and his utility profile rounds off the class pretty straightforwardly.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-9: OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS, FL (my rank: 7)
The Rockies were surprised but absolutely thrilled that Zac Veen was still available for them at the ninth overall pick. He was rumored as high as second overall to the Orioles and most mocks had him going somewhere in the four to seven range, but it was well known that there was no way the Rockies would let him slip past number nine. He's a perfect fit for Colorado with a gorgeous left handed swing with all the power projection in the world, which he has begun to tap into more and more. The power is true plus in batting practice and at this point plays above average in games, but with an uber-projectable 6'4" frame, it's easy to see him growing into plus-plus raw power that plays way up in Coors Field. Long and lean, his power comes from the tremendous loft and leverage he puts on the ball rather than elite bat speed (like Austin Hendrick) or elite strength (like Aaron Sabato), and that makes him perfect for Coors. Not a pure power hitter, he has actually played as hit-over-power at times in his prep career, as he has a very advanced approach at the plate with great pitch recognition and the ability to draw walks. The pure ability to make contact is perhaps a bit behind, but it's barely reason for concern given his plate discipline and youth. He's a solid defender that should be above average in right field, but the Rockies are clearly buying him for his bat. There's inherent risk with drafting any high school player, but the ceiling is high enough here that I won't even try to quantify it – I'll just say that his swing and overall game remind me of Cody Bellinger with a more normal glove. I'm excited to see him hit baseballs to the moon at Coors Field and you should be too. A native of the Daytona Beach area, he was committed to Florida but signed with the Rockies for $5 million, which was about $50,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

CBA-35: C Drew Romo, The Woodlands HS, TX (my rank: 46)
By ranking him 46th on my list, I was probably the low man on Drew Romo, because I'm really skeptical of high school catchers in general. If anyone else took him in this range, I wouldn't love the pick, but I actually think it makes a lot of sense for the Rockies. He was the best catcher left on the board and while you don't draft for need, the Rockies have struggled to find a reliable catcher for a long time. That doesn't justify this pick for me, but what does is that Romo projects to be the best defensive catcher in the entire class, high school or college, and that's critical in Colorado. Having a guy who can not only get the job done, but make his pitchers better in the process, is huge in a place where altitude will kill your confidence. If Romo can make the Rockies' pitchers better, he'll have at least fulfilled his value at the 35th pick. He's an excellent blocker and receiver with a cannon arm, which buys his bat all the slack in the world. His bat does need that slack this high in the draft, because it's fairly unremarkable at this point. A switch hitter, he shows an advanced approach at the plate befitting of a catcher and makes regular contact, and with a strong 6'1" frame, he projects for some power as well. With a simple, clean swing with some leverage, you could project him perhaps hitting 10-20 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages at Coors Field, which is definitely enough to keep him in the starting lineup given his glove. There's huge risk in developing high school catchers because so many of them have bats that just never come along, and Romo's bat isn't much different than many of those who built that poor track record of high school catchers, but given everything else, I like this pick for the Rox. Committed to LSU, the Houston-area native instead signed for $2.1 million, right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

2-46: RHP Chris McMahon, Miami (my rank: 26)
While I don't know how great a fit Chris McMahon is for Coors Field in general, I do think he is an excellent get in the second round regardless of stadium. McMahon, who was a potential top 100 pick out of high school in the Philadelphia area, is one of the most complete pitchers in the college class outside of the top tier. He put up a solid sophomore season at Miami (2.90 ERA, 67/23 K/BB) before getting off to a red hot start as a junior, where he put up a 0.82 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 38/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings in what was not an easy non-conference schedule. The 6'2" right hander has above average stuff across the board, showing a low to mid 90's fastball that has been up as high as 98, an above average slider that can flash plus, and a great changeup that plays extremely well off his fastball. He has a durable frame, an easy, repeatable delivery, and above average to plus command that all give him a very good chance to wind up in a big league rotation. He's often been labeled more of a "safe bet" guy than a "high ceiling" type, and while there is some truth to that, I do think the stuff is loud enough that he's going to be more than a back-end starter. I see him more as a high-probability mid-rotation guy, and that's why I put first round grades on him. While the stuff is more above average than plus, I think it will be enough to miss bats and find success at Coors Field. This is great value in the second round, and his $1.64 million signing bonus was only about $20,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

3-81: LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson (my rank: 106)
This is definitely an interesting arm with some really exciting stuff. Weatherly grew up about halfway between Detroit and Lansing but headed south to Clemson for college, where he has improved significantly each season. After putting up a 6.64 ERA as a freshman swingman and a 3.37 mark as a sophomore reliever, he transitioned to the rotation full time in 2020 and put up excellent numbers over his four starts with a 0.79 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 43/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings. As I mentioned, the stuff is exciting. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 96, and he adds a filthy frisbee slider that dives all the way across the plate in addition to a mediocre changeup. A great athlete, he has a really loose arm that makes the baseball very difficult to pick up out of his hand, and that deception makes both the fastball and slider play way up and miss a ton of bats. However, he struggles mightily with his strike throwing, as his poor 14.9% walk rate in 2020 was actually an improvement over 2019, when he walked 22.7% – 30 in 29.1 innings. There are no glaring mechanical flaws in his delivery, rather, he just lacks the overall feel to repeat his arm slot and throw strikes. From an onlooker's perspective, he's really just slinging the ball towards the plate.  That fastball/slider combination is really hard to ignore from an athletic 6'4" lefty though, and the Rockies will hope to slow him down and get him more deliberate in his arm path. If he can't throw enough strikes to start, I could see that fastball slider combination playing way up in the bullpen if he can just get close to average command. Interesting arm for sure. Weatherly signed for $755,300, right at slot value.

4-110: RHP Case Williams, Douglas County HS, CO (unranked)
If you follow my draft reviews, you know I love a hometown pick, and while Colorado isn't the world's biggest hotbed of baseball talent, the Rockies still managed to pull one off. Case Williams is a pitcher from Douglas County High School in Castle Rock, about 27 miles south of Coors Field, so of all the pitchers who dread pitching there, this one might actually be excited about it. Williams is a 6'3" righty with a sturdy frame and a relatively low effort delivery, usually sitting around 90 with his fastball and adding a solid average curveball and decent changeup. However, he touched as high as 95 in spring bullpens, and the potential uptick in stuff had Rockies scouts excited. It certainly helps to bring on a player who is comfortable pitching at altitude, and if his curveball is solid average in Castle Rock, it's a potential above average or even plus pitch at sea level. A solid strike thrower, there are a lot of starter traits to like here, and the Rockies definitely think they can develop him into a workhorse mid-rotation guy if he continues the trend he's on. Committed to Santa Clara, he instead signed with his hometown team for $450,000, which was $77,800 below slot.

5-140: SS Jack Blomgren, Michigan (unranked)
For their last pick, the Rockies picked up a safe bet infielder out of Michigan. Jack Blomgren has been a solid performer for the Wolverines, slashing .309/.420/.399 with four home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 62/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games since the start of the 2019 season. The Janesville, Wisconsin native makes regular line drive contact from the right side but doesn't project for a ton of power, even at Coors, because the hit tool plays around average, I don't really see him hitting enough to start. He's a good defender who will stick at shortstop, which takes a lot of pressure off his bat and maximizes his value in the utility role that would fit him best down the line. He's not a flashy player, more a steady player on both sides of the ball who will get the job done at the big league level. His gritty, get-it-done style of play worked really well in a starting role in college, and it should continue to work well in a reserve role in pro ball. His $394,300 signing bonus was right at slot value.

Undrafted: RHP Blake Goldsberry, Kansas (unranked)
Case Williams won't be the only hometown pitcher heading to home to Colorado. Though Blake Goldsberry spent the past five seasons pitching for the Kansas Jayhawks, he grew up in the Denver area and attended Cherry Creek High School in Greenwood Village (though the Kansas website lists Highlands Ranch as his hometown). He's a 6'4" redshirt senior who has worked mostly in relief, and over the past three seasons he has a 3.33 ERA and a 51/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 innings (including ten shutout innings in 2020). There's not much video available, but he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 95 in relief, adding a slider and a changeup as well. Given that he already turned 23 in May, it's probably a straightforward relief profile.

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