1-2: OF Heston Kjerstad, Arkansas
CBA-30: SS Jordan Westburg, Mississippi State
2-39: OF Hudson Haskin, Tulane
3-74: SS Anthony Servideo, Mississippi
4-103: 3B Coby Mayo, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)
5-133: RHP Carter Baumler, Dowling Catholic HS (IA)
The Orioles' story is well known at this point. They went way under slot to bring on Heston Kjerstad, a fringe-top ten talent, at second overall, with plans to draft Nick Bitkso at #30. The Rays swooped in and took Bitsko at #24, though, throwing the Orioles' plans for a loop. They could have gone after a guy like Jared Kelley, Cole Wilcox, or JT Ginn at that spot instead, but it looks like they didn't really have a plan B and waited until the back of the draft to go significantly over slot. Personally, I would call this my least favorite class in the draft, just because I feel a team with picks #2, #30, and #39 should have picked up a lot more talent than they did. Coby Mayo and Carter Baumler are nice over slot finds in rounds four and five, but I don't think they nearly justify passing over Austin Martin or Asa Lacy at second overall. I know they didn't plan it to turn out this way, but it had to have been a very realistic probability in their minds. I tend to give teams the benefit of the doubt with their picks because the draft is such a crapshoot, but I think the Orioles blew this one. And that's nothing against Heston Kjerstad – I don't feel like I'm dissing him by saying he clearly was not a top five talent. The Orioles also did not end up spending their entire bonus pool, which to me is a very clear indictment that this didn't work.
On the class itself, it's a bat-heavy class with Baumler being the only pitcher in the class, right at the end of their draft. They went for upside over safe bets here, and while Baumler has actually been noted for his clean delivery, the Orioles seemed to have an affinity for funky swings here. Kjerstad is such a natural hitter that you might not want to mess with what he's got going too much, but Jordan Westburg, Hudson Haskin, and Coby Mayo will almost certainly need swing changes in pro ball. Lastly, the Orioles apparently went for a Southern theme here, grabbing their players out of Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, and Iowa (never mind that last one) in order.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-2: OF Heston Kjerstad, Arkansas (my rank: 12)
I gave my opinion on the Kjerstad situation in the intro, so I don't want to dwell on that here. He's not the second best and definitely not one of the top five or six players in this draft, that's a given, but he's still a very good player and I would be raving about his bat if he was taken six to ten picks later. So I will give him his due as if he were drafted in the range in which he fits. Kjerstad grew up in Amarillo, Texas, and headed west across the plains to Arkansas for school. He has absolutely raked for three years in Fayetteville, slashing .345/.425/.587 with 35 home runs and a 125/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 career games, and that's going up against a lot of really tough SEC pitching staffs. He was off to an even hotter start in 2020 at .448/.513/.791 with six home runs in 16 games, and that's likely what convinced the Orioles he was their under slot guy. Kjerstad possesses huge raw power from the left side that he has absolutely not trouble getting to, blasting home runs with consistency everywhere he's gone. His swing is pretty handsy and his bat path is not ideal, but his elite hand eye coordination enables him to deploy his extremely strong wrists and 6'3" frame into that huge power consistently. In addition to the awkward swing, he's a very aggressive hitter who doesn't draw a ton of walks and strikes out fairly often, and while that's generally a red flag for college bats, Kjerstad has been so productive so consistently and against such good competition that it might not be an issue at all. To me, it's pretty clear that he was born to hit, no matter the peripherals, and he should be an impact bat who can pop 35-40 home runs a year at Camden Yards. He's a decent defender that should be solid in right field or above average in left field, but the bat is 100% the calling card. Kjerstad's $5.2 million signing bonus was about $2.59 million below slot value, much closer to the pick value at #8. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-30: SS Jordan Westburg, Mississippi State (my rank: 43)
I wasn't a huge fan of this Bitsko replacement, but we'll see. Jordan Westburg is another Texan who grew up outside of San Antonio before heading back east to Mississippi State, and he's been a solid hitter with a .298/.408/.468 with eight home runs and an 84/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 games over the last two seasons. He was actually better in the Cape Cod League, where he hit .326/.385/.516 with four home runs, giving us a glimpse of his true upside. Westburg is extremely athletic at 6'3" and shows off above average raw power in addition to above average speed, and his strong Cape line shows that the hit tool isn't completely raw. However, his swing is a bit choppy and his power doesn't really play up in games at this point, so despite only ten career home runs, he has 38 doubles. The athleticism and frame, in addition to his quick hands, give hope that he can start to tap it more with some mechanical adjustments. Westburg also doesn't control the strike zone particularly well, but at least he has a lot of experience facing higher level pitching. An above average runner, he is athletic enough to stick at shortstop, though he does need a little refinement if he wants to stick there full time. He strikes me as a guy who could end up a starting shortstop or second baseman down the line, but one with inconsistent batting lines that fluctuate between very productive and so-so. At best, I see him popping 20-25 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, though he could dip into the teens some years and put up fringier OBP's. The Orioles hope to build him into something that spends more time at the upper end of his projection than the lower end, betting on his Cape line being the real deal. Westburg's $2.37 million signing bonus was right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
2-39: OF Hudson Haskin, Tulane (my rank: 101)
Haskin is a really hard hitter to get a read on, and that's evidenced by the disparity in his rankings: #74 on MLB Pipeline, #101 on my list, and #211 on Baseball America. While it's easy to poke holes in Haskin's profile, it's also very easy to see why the Orioles loved the bat. A New York City native and a product of Avon Old Farms School in Connecticut, Haskin was a full year older than his classmates and was already 20 years old when he began his freshman season at Tulane. He hit the ground running anyways, slashing .363/.457/.612 with 11 home runs and a 39/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games in his short Tulane career, absolutely tormenting AAC pitching along the way. However, watch one video of him hitting, and you'll understand why he's a divisive prospect. He begins from a very upright stance, but his long stride drops his eye level by perhaps a foot and puts him in a really awkward hitting position. His swing itself is quick and powerful, but it's also pretty rigid and it requires him to be right on time and right on target. Haskin's elite hand eye coordination enabled that swing to work exceptionally well for him in college, but pro pitching is another animal. He naturally gets compared to Hunter Pence a lot and I think that's a fair comparison, though Haskin doesn't have quite as much power. Pence proves that a funky swing can work in today's game, and the Orioles are betting on Pence not being a one of a kind player. Personally, I'm a little skeptical and I want to see the Orioles implement some changes to get his head more level and help him stay back a bit better on the ball, but there is no question that he can hit. That feel for hitting will be the key as he moves through the minors. Swing aside, Haskin generates some nice raw power out of his skinny 6'2" frame, but he's probably a little more hit over power if we're splitting hairs. Because he doesn't swing and miss much, he doesn't draw a ton of walks, but nobody out there is questioning his ability to control the strike zone. Defensively, he figures to stick in center field with the necessary speed, range, and arm strength to be an asset out there. Baltimore was all in at the $1.91 million slot value here and bought him out of returning for his junior season.
3-74: SS Anthony Servideo, Mississippi (my rank: 95)
Anthony Servideo is a really interesting one. The South Florida native was solid as a sophomore at Ole Miss (.287/.429/.388, 3 HR), but he absolutely cratered in the Cape Cod League and hit just .149/.277/.228 with a 37/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games. He was viewed as a nice mid round utility infield type heading into the season, but then he busted out and led all Division I baseball players with 51 times on base in the shortened season. Starting with a two hit performance off Angels first rounder Reid Detmers, he slashed .390/.575/.695 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 16/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games, up there as one of the hottest starts by any player this year. The flashy shortstop revealed a power stroke scouts had never seen before from him, albeit often punishing mistake pitches rather than showing true projectable power, and generally made contact with everything in sight while taking his walks when he didn't get hittable pitches. He's a high energy player who, in keeping with Ole Miss shortstop tradition, bleached his long hair blond this year, and Orioles scouts are confident he'll keep up his hot hitting into pro ball. Since he's only 5'10" and shows more game power than raw power, he probably projects for good on-base percentages and perhaps 10-15 home runs a year, though his glove does buy his bat some slack. Servideo is a very good shortstop who will definitely stick at the position, and if he hits enough to start, he'll probably push Jordan Westburg to second or third base. There's a nice floor here as a utility infielder and some upside if the continues to hit for the kind of impact he showed in 2020. He signed for $950,000, which was about $105,800 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
4-103: 3B Coby Mayo, Stoneman Douglas HS, FL (my rank: 107)
This is where the Orioles started using their extra bonus pool money they saved on Kjerstad. Coby Mayo is a power hitting infielder out of Stoneman Douglas High School in South Florida, using the natural strength in his 6'5" frame to drop some really impressive home runs. As you might expect for a power hitting high schooler outside the top 100, though, his hit tool could use some work. There is significant swing and miss in his game, partially stemming from a bit of an awkward swing path where his barrel is not in the zone for long and also just due to the fact that he's young and still needs to grow into his body a little bit more. There are lots of these types of players all over the place, and in this draft the Orioles could have gone for a kid like AJ Vukovich (Diamondbacks 4th round), Kala'i Rosario (Twins fifth round), Yohandy Morales (undrafted), or Cayden Wallace (undrafted). While all of these kids have huge raw power that they haven't proven they can get to, the Orioles must think that some mechanical tweaks are all he needs to shoot forward, and that his hit tool is really only inhibited by the awkward swing. They're also buying strong plate discipline in addition to a flashy, high-confidence style of play that will no doubt be fun to watch down the line. Defensively, Mayo shows an absolute cannon of an arm from third base, but as a bigger guy, he doesn't quite have the range to handle third base, at least not yet. The arm strength will buy the glove opportunities to grow, and perhaps he might not need to be the most agile defender to stick over there, but third basemen are being asked to cover more and more ground nowadays with shifts and it will be an uphill climb. If the mechanical changes prove to be the magic touch for Mayo, then it won't matter where he plays because the power is completely legitimate. Committed to Florida, he signed for $1.75 million, which is front half of the second round money and roughly $1.18 million above slot value.
5-133: RHP Carter Baumler, Dowling Catholic HS, IA (my rank: 147)
Here's the other big over slot deal. As I mentioned in the intro, Baumler is the trend-buster here. He's the only pitcher, the only non-Southerner, and unlike some of the hitters, he actually has very clean mechanics. Iowa isn't the biggest baseball state in the country, but they've quietly produced some solid pitching talent from Jeremy Hellickson and Joel Hanrahan to, more recently, current prospects AJ Puk, TJ Sikkema, and Cardinals 2020 fourth rounder Ian Bedell. Baumler, from Des Moines, is a 6'2" righty with the building blocks to be a future impact starting pitcher. His fastball sits in the low 90's at present, though it dips into the upper 80's more than scouts would like to see at this point. His curveball is probably his best pitch for now, with tight spin and nice depth at times but in need of just a little more consistency, while he doesn't use his changeup as often but it can be a sneaky good pitch. Partly owing to his smooth delivery, he's a solid strike thrower that projects as above average in that regard, and there is some projection remaining in his 6'2" frame. That makes for a fairly ordinary right-now product, but proponents see him needing less development than most high school pitchers and instead only needing to add strength. The stuff is a little bit slight right now, but if he tacks on a few pounds, he could be more consistently in the low 90's with his fastball, perhaps touch the mid 90's more often, and put a little power on that curveball. If he sharpens his command a little bit to above average, that's a really nice mid-rotation starter profile. He's committed to TCU and the Orioles believe that had he followed through, he would have hit the ground running and come out a star on the other end, so they snapped him up here. He hasn't put pen to paper yet but he's reportedly agreed to a $1.5 million bonus, which would be about $1.08 million above slot value. The Orioles have over $1.7 million left in their bonus pool.
Undrafted: RHP Thomas Girard, Duke (unranked)
Girard was high school teammates with second rounder Hudson Haskin at Avon Old Farms School just outside Hartford, Connecticut, and he's been a lights out closer in his sophomore and junior seasons at Duke: 2.58 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 84/19 K/BB in 59.1 innings. He's undersized at 5'11" and has pitched exclusively in relief for the Blue Devils, and that's where he'll stay with a max effort delivery. I haven't been able to find velocity numbers on his fastball, but it plays up coming from that loud delivery that features a lot of moving limbs and head whack, but his best pitch is an above average slider that routinely misses bats. He's done an excellent job of limiting baseunners at Duke and allowed just 32 hits in 59.1 innings over the past two seasons, and despite his max effort delivery, he's a solid average strike thrower. Girard has the opportunity to move quickly in a relief role.
Undrafted: OF Dylan Harris, North Carolina (unranked)
Harris, a native of the Knoxville suburbs, raked for two years at Walters State CC in Tennessee before transferring across the mountains to UNC. With the Tar Heels, he's slashed .266/.406/.465 with eleven home runs and a 47/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 games. Just 5'9", he's been noted for his exceptional strike zone judgement that will aid him significantly in pro ball. He finds the barrel consistently with a compact left handed swing, which led to a fairly ordinary junior year at UNC (.263/.407/.426), but he was driving the ball much more consistently as a senior (.274/.404/.575) and knocked five home runs in 19 games. A good defender who should stick in center field, he'll probably work his way up in a fourth or fifth outfielder capacity, but he has the kind of bat that won't lose much potency when transitioning from the ACC to professional baseball.
Undrafted: 1B J.D. Mundy, Radford (unranked)
I saw a lot of Mundy when he was an underclassman at Virginia Tech, though he slashed a fairly unremarkable .247/.377/.450 with 12 home runs and a 71/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games in those first two seasons. A lack of guaranteed playing time under new head coach John Szefc (pronounced "sheff") lead to him transferring half an hour down Peppers Ferry Road over to Radford, where his bat really came alive. Between his junior and senior seasons, the Roanoke native slashed .323/.425/.606 with 17 home runs and a 58/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games, leaving the Highlanders on a real high note – over his final five games, he went 11-20 with three home runs and 14 RBI against Canisius, George Mason, and Notre Dame. Mundy is on the shorter side for a slugger, standing an even six feet tall, but he packs a lot of strength into that frame and can really drive the ball when he connects. Though his power is more a product of brute strength than of bat speed, he controls the strike zone well with a patient approach that should enable him to handle pro pitching. He'll probably have to get a little bit looser with his swing to handle upper minors pitching, especially since he's a first baseman only who won't provide much value on that side of the ball, but the lefty fits well at Camden Yards and could hit his way into a platoon role.
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