Monday, July 15, 2019

2019 Draft Review: San Francisco Giants

First five rounds: Hunter Bishop (1-10), Logan Wyatt (2-51), Grant McCray (3-87), Tyler Fitzgerald (4-116), Garrett Frechette (5-146)
Also notable: Dilan Rosario (6-176), Trevor McDonald (11-326), Brooks Lee (35-1046), Will Rigney (38-1136)

The Giants employed an interesting draft strategy here, grabbing two elite college bats in the first two rounds before signing a bunch of overslot high schoolers with the $1.1 million they saved on those first two picks. Those two bats, Hunter Bishop and Logan Wyatt, have a chance to make up the middle of their order for years to come, then they got plenty of upside later on. I particularly see massively overslot eleventh rounder Trevor McDonald, who signed for almost as much as Wyatt, as a sleeper to keep an eye on.

1-10: OF Hunter Bishop (Arizona State, my rank: 10)
Hunter Bishop was projected to possibly go a couple of slots higher, so the Giants were ecstatic when the hometown kid fell to them at pick number ten. Bishop grew up in San Mateo and went to Junipero Serra High School, where he was considered a potential top five round pick and ranked 106th on my list. Instead, he packed it up and went to Arizona State, where he hit just .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore and then .233/.369/.350 with four home runs in 39 games in the elite Cape Cod League. However, he put everything together in a huge way in 2019, slashing .342/.479/.748 with 22 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 61/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for the Sun Devils. Bishop more than quadrupled his home run output while cutting his strikeout rate from 30.3% to 21.8% and bumping his walk rate from 10.9% to 17.9%. He produces a ton of torque with his 6'5" frame, and the fact that he was able to improve his plate discipline so dramatically while adding all that power speaks volumes to the legitimacy of his breakout. However, he slashed just .264/.395/.529 with a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio in conference games, combining with his swing and miss to lead to questions as to just how well his bat will profile at the next level. Despite his size, he's a good defender and may be able to handle center field, and he should be above average in left or right field. Overall, he has a ceiling of 30+ home runs and solid on-base percentages, though he's could become more of a 20-25 home run guy with middling on-base percentages if his swing and miss questions catch up to him. He signed for $4.1 million, which was $640,000 below slot, and he is slashing .250/.375/.550 with a home run and an 11/4 strikeout to walk ratio through six games in the complex level Arizona League.

2-51: 1B Logan Wyatt (Louisville, my rank: 27)
I really like this pick. I always thought Logan Wyatt was being underrated throughout the lead-up to the draft, and the Giants are going to get borderline first round/comp round value here in the second round (for a third round price tag). Wyatt didn't play much during his freshman year at Louisville but followed a big sophomore season with another big junior season this year, where he slashed .283/.445/.449 with nine home runs and a 48/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, a late season slump dragging down his numbers a bit. Despite the late season slump, I believe in Wyatt's bat. At 6'4", 230 pounds, he's built like a slugger, and he actually slashed .304/.421/.571 in conference play in a tough ACC, as well as .305/.458/.438 with four home runs and more walks (29) than strikeouts (24) on the Cape, which is where my enthusiasm comes from. The kid from just outside of Louisville has an excellent eye at the plate that both helped him perform so well in the ACC as well as on the Cape, and it will continue to help him in pro ball. However, his power plays only average for now, and as a first baseman with little defensive value, that won't cut it in the long run. He has the eye to continue to find the barrel consistently even if the Giants change his swing to help him hit for more power, and with all the walks he draws (21.2% this year), he could be a 20-25 home run hitter with solidly high on-base percentages. However, he did slump at the end of the season and the pressure will be on the bat to develop. He signed for $997,500, which was $442,500 below slot, and he is slashing .450/.500/.500 with three strikeouts to three walks through six games in the Arizona League.

3-87: OF Grant McCray (Lakewood Ranch HS [FL], unranked)
Grant McCray's stock has been rising steadily throughout the spring as he begins to manifest his high upside. He's still very raw, but he's also very athletic and possesses the plus speed that scouts love. That athleticism also plays into his other parts of his game, as he uses his strength to generate leverage on the ball and hit for some power, with possible 20 homer pop in the tank. The Tampa-area high schooler won't move quickly, but he has the chance to develop a power/speed combination that is hard to come by. As a fun aside, his father, Rodney McCray, is famous for crashing through the outfield wall in a 1991 minor league game in Portland and played parts of three seasons in the majors with the White Sox and Mets. Grant signed away from a Florida State commitment for $697,500, which was $8,200 above slot, and he's slashing .206/.365/.265 with a 23/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the Arizona League.

4-116: SS Tyler Fitzgerald (Louisville, unranked)
65 picks after grabbing Louisville first baseman Logan Wyatt in the second round, the Giants went back to the Cardinals' infield and took shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald in the fourth round. Fitzgerald was a highly regarded recruit who ranked #116 on my 2016 list while in high school near Springfield, Illinois, but he took some time to adjust to college ball and hit just .208/.303/.272 as a freshman and .264/.344/.378 as a sophomore. However, he figured it out as a junior, slashing .315/.391/.483 with eight home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 50/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games, and that came on the heels of a .298/.370/.415 line over 43 Cape Cod League games. He doesn't stand out in any facet of the game, but he knows how to play and has hit well both on the Cape and in the ACC, so he has a high floor as a utility infielder. However, given his lack of loud skills, he also has a limited ceiling, and he ultimately projects for mediocre to average power with decent on-base percentages. If he can find a way to stick at shortstop, he may be able to start in the long run, but that's not a given and that utility infielder path is by far his most likely one. The fact that he's 6'3" and does have that competency for the game does give him the chance to outplay his current projection and end up as something more. He signed for $495,000, which was $2,500 below slot, and he's slashing .281/.351/.438 with a home run and a 2/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight games between the Arizona League and short season Salem-Keizer.

5-146: 1B Garrett Frechette (Orange Lutheran HS [CA], unranked)
Garrett Frechette grew up in San Diego and originally enrolled at Cathedral Catholic High School, famous for producing 2014 first overall pick Brady Aiken, but he moved up to the LA area for his senior year so he could be a part of the prestigious Orange Lutheran High School program that produced 2011 first overall pick Gerrit Cole (after he went on to UCLA). Frechette's calling card is his bat, but unfortunately, he wasn't quite able to show it off at its full potential this year. He battled a few nagging injuries as well as a bout with mono, and he ultimately did not perform the way scouts were hoping he would. Still, he's 6'3" and shows a quick, strong, left handed swing that produces good power when he's on, and it's easy to love a quick swing with power. Because he's mediocre with the glove and will be confined to first base or left field, the Giants are banking on his bat coming alive with pro coaching and refinement as well as just consistent reps on the field. Committed to San Diego State, he instead signed for $797,500, which was $425,900 above slot, and he's slashing .333/.362/.407 with an 11/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the Arizona League.

6-176: SS Dilan Rosario (Leadership Christian HS [PR], unranked)
Dilan Rosario, like Frechette, comes with a lot of questions with his bat, though that's where the similarities end. The Puerto Rican high schooler has quick hands, but his bat path is somewhat long and causes his hit tool to play down towards average, and at this point he's not strong enough to hit for much power. That's not a very promising outlook for his bat, but the Giants will hope to shorten his swing and get him more directly to the ball, where the 6'2" shortstop can then let whatever power he has come naturally. Defensively, he's very competent and has a good shot to stick at shortstop, and if he's forced off the position, he should still be a plus defender at second or third base. That will buy the bat time, and if he can stick at short, he has a chance to start as a line drive, bottom of the lineup guy, though the more likely outcome is utility infielder. Rosario was committed to Southern California but signed away for $650,000, which was $368,200 above slot, and he's slashing .238/.269/.524 with four home runs and a 29/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games in the Arizona League. Honestly, complex level statistics don't mean much, but he has still hit for much more power than expected, though that strikeout to walk ratio is a bit scary.

11-326: RHP Trevor McDonald (George County HS [MS], unranked)
Here's a sleeper for you. Trevor McDonald comes from the small town of Lucedale, Mississippi, about halfway between Hattiesburg and Mobile, Alabama, but he's yet another top prospect to come out of George County High School's regionally famous baseball program. McDonald sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has an incredibly loose arm that could easily add some velocity as he gets stronger, and he also adds three inconsistent but present secondary pitches at this point. His slider is the most advanced at this point, but his aptitude for pitching should help him develop all three as well as his command. On the flip side, he's not the most projectable guy with a skinny 6'2" frame, and he has yet to prove his durability at this point. There's a lot of upside here and that's why the Giants signed McDonald away from a South Alabama commitment for $800,000, which counts for $675,000 against their bonus pool.

35-1046: SS Brooks Lee (San Luis Obispo HS [CA], my rank: 41)
As you would expect, Brooks Lee did not sign here, and he'll instead attend Cal Poly and play for his dad in the Mustangs baseball program. Lee's a very interesting prospect and a good spring pushed him into the fringes of the first round discussion and certainly into the competitive balance round discussion, but ultimately he was not signable. The San Luis Obispo native has excellent feel for the game, and it shows on both sides of the ball with his knack for finding the barrel and his consistency in the infield. On the flip side, his swing sucks, to be frank, as he often gets choppy with it and/or leaks out over his front foot, sapping his power. That makes it all the more impressive that he performed well against elite competition on the showcase circuit, and he smooths out his swing either at Cal Poly or in pro ball down the line, he could have a true plus hit tool. He's 6'1" and it remains to be seen how much power comes out of it, though you never know with mechanical changes. Defensively, he's competent enough to handle shortstop, but his athleticism is a little stretched there and he may end up at third base, where he would be a plus defender.

38-1136: RHP Will Rigney (Midway HS [TX], my rank: 94)
Like Lee, Will Rigney will attend his hometown college rather than signing with the Giants, in this case Baylor. Rigney wasn't quite as highly touted as Lee, instead projecting more as an early Day Two pick, but he has high upside as well. The Waco-area native sits in the low 90's with his fastball and shows an inconsistent slider that can flash true plus, and at 6'5", he's plenty projectable enough to add more velocity. He also uses his big frame to get good angle on the ball, and his command is currently average. However, he fell because a forearm injury kept him out for most of the spring, and if not handled right (or even when handled right), those things can lead to Tommy John surgery. We'll have to see how his health holds up at Baylor, but if he does indeed come back healthy, he could get more consistent with that slider and add a changeup and emerge as a potential first round pick.

No comments:

Post a Comment