Monday, July 8, 2019

2019 Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays

First five rounds: Alek Manoah (1-11), Kendall Williams (2-52), Dasan Brown (3-88), Will Robertson (4-117), Tanner Morris (5-147)
Also notable: Cameron Eden (6-177), LJ Talley (7-207), Philip Clarke (9-267)

After grabbing two premium arms in Alek Manoah and Kendall Williams in the first two rounds, the Blue Jays switched to an offensive focus on Day Two and spent all eight picks on position players, including five infielders. There's not a ton of upside outside those first three or four rounds, as they opted mostly for utility guys and other bench pieces, but all of those guys have a track record of hitting and should assimilate smoothly to pro ball as a group. For good measure, they also popped a hometown product in Ontario native Dasan Brown in the third round.

1-11: RHP Alek Manoah (West Virginia, my rank: 15)
There's big power arms, then there's Alek Manoah. The 6'6", 260 pound righty put it all together in 2019 after struggling with inconsistency as an underclassman, posting a 2.08 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 144/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 108.1 innings for the Mountaineers. Manoah was also very effective in the elite Cape Cod League last summer, posting a 2.70 ERA and a 48/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings against the top competition in college baseball. The Homestead, Florida native uses his huge frame to pump mid 90's fastballs fairly easily, and he can run it up into the upper 90's if he needs to. While the velocity on his fastball is his main weapon, he also deploys a very good slider that took a step forward in 2019, and his changeup, once an afterthought, has improved to where it, too, can be an asset. Manoah also took a step forward with his command this year, and what was once a weak spot is now average or slightly above. Because he can fill the strike zone with an easy plus fastball and add a pair of good secondaries, he's a premium arm, but there is some risk here. Manoah has a bit of a cross-body delivery could make him less deceptive against left handed hitters. There's also the question of his secondaries, which are much better than last year but neither of which can be classified as a true strikeout pitch. Overall, if the Blue Jays can help Manoah get a little sharper there and maintain his command, he has top of the rotation potential, but a big fastball alone won't get you above the middle of the rotation and he could end up as a #3 or #4 guy if his command or secondaries take a step back. Manoah signed for full slot at $4.55 million.

2-52: RHP Kendall Williams (IMG Academy [FL], my rank: 44)
Make that two 6'6" righties at the top of the draft for the Jays. Kendall Williams pitched for the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida (near Tampa), but he is originally from the Memphis area. Williams is actually one of my favorite high school pitchers in this part of the draft due to his combination of projectability and current ability. He uses a high release point to get good angle on the ball and throw a low 90's fastball, also adding a good curveball, a decent slider, and a solid changeup. The plane he's able to get on the ball helps his pitches play up, and the fact that he can command four pitches at this age and at that height speaks of his aptitude for pitching. At 6'6", he has room to add more weight and velocity, and if he can sharpen that slider a little, he'll have four weapons at his disposal. Obviously, he has a lot of work to do as a high school pitcher who will turn 19 in August, but Williams has high upside as a top of the rotation starter and carries slightly less risk than some high school pitchers. He signed away from Vanderbilt for $1.55 million, which was $150,000 above slot.

3-88: OF Dasan Brown (Abbey Park HS [ON], my rank: 121)
Dasan Brown grew up a Blue Jays fan in Oakville, Ontario, a suburb of Toronto, so seeing him get drafted to his hometown team here is pretty cool. He's an exceptional athlete whose plus speed is his top tool, and he uses that speed to be a very good center fielder as well as a threat on the bases. However, his bat will need a lot of work. Brown currently employs a fairly choppy swing that leads to a lot of ground balls and soft contact, which he can beat out for infield singles for now but which will need to change against better defenses. He does have solid bat speed, so if the Blue Jays can successfully overhaul his swing, the 5'11" speedster could develop some gap power and become a doubles and triples machine. For now, though, he doesn't show much feel for hitting and will be a project if the Jays want to develop him into a leadoff hitter eventually. They had mixed results with Anthony Alford the last time they tried this with a similar player. On the plus side, Brown is very young and won't turn 18 until September, making him more than a year younger than Williams. Brown signed away from a Texas A&M commitment for $800,000, which was $121,400 above slot.

4-117: OF Will Robertson (Creighton, my rank: 88)
Will Robertson rounds out the Blue Jays draft class after they took a college pitcher, a high school pitcher, and a high school hitter, as gives them the fourth major demographic as a college hitter. Robertson grew up in the small town of Westphalia, Missouri, which is near Jefferson City in the middle of the state, and he was a relative unknown and ended up at Creighton. There he turned himself into an impact hitter, slashing .333/.412/.641 as a sophomore before hopping over to the Cape Cod League and slashing .300/.380/.435 with four home runs and a 28/16 strikeout to walk ratio. Expectations were high coming into his junior season, though he wasn't quite as dominant a force as he was his sophomore season and he finished with a .311/.408/.599 line, 15 home runs, and a 39/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games while playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly park. Robertson can hit for both contact and for power, and he has proven that not only at Creighton but on the Cape as well, so he has a good chance to hit in pro ball. However, his aggressive approach at the plate limits his walks, and because he's only a so-so defender that will be just adequate in left field, his bat will have to carry him. He has enough in that bat to potentially succeed as is with 20-25 home run potential and middling on-base percentages, but getting more patient and drawing more walks would make him a more well rounded hitter as well as help him solve the advanced pitching he'll face in pro ball. Robertson signed for $422,500, which was $70,200 below slot, and he's slashing .186/.305/.243 with 14 strikeouts to nine walks through his first 19 games at short season Vancouver.

5-147: SS Tanner Morris (Virginia, my rank: 107)
It was a down year for the Virginia Cavaliers, and as a result, 2019 marked the first time since 2009 that UVA had no players selected in the first four rounds. At pick 147 in the fifth round, Morris was the first Cavalier drafted, and he'll give the Blue Jays a potential utility infielder with some offensive upside. He's just a sophomore but because he turned 21 in September and is the age of a college junior, he's eligible this year. The Charlottesville native has a great track record of hitting, as he slashed .331/.404/.449 with a pair of home runs and a 23/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games on the Cape before a big sophomore season where he hit .345/.452/.507 with five home runs and a 38/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at UVA. Given all that production in multiple high level leagues, there are no questions about Morris' hit tool, but the rest of his game is fairly fringy. He has a quick bat but his approach is more slap-heavy and catered towards line drives, so the Blue Jays' goal may be to turn all his doubles into home runs by adding more lift to his swing. He's a so-so defender that should be able to stick at second base and be adequate there, though he could end up in left field. Overall, Morris projects as a bat-first utility guy, but if he can add a little pop, it could help him earn a starting role when combined with his high on-base percentages fueled by strong plate discipline. Morris signed for $397,500, which was $30,600 above slot, and he's slashing .211/.371/.296 with a home run and a 14/17 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games with Vancouver.

6-177: SS Cameron Eden (California, unranked)
Cameron Eden actually isn't too dissimilar a player to Tanner Morris, though Eden's plate discipline doesn't quite match up with Morris'. The Yuba City, California native had a rough sophomore season at Cal and hit just .247/.306/.292, but he turned it around as a junior and bumped that line up to .365/.435/.555 with eight home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 45/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games. Eden has some pop, some contact ability, and some speed, but his overall offensive game at this point is just a bit too light if he ever wants to start at the major league level. He struck out in 19.2% of his plate appearances and walked in 9.4%, so the so-so plate discipline will have to take a step forward in pro ball if he wants to succeed. Given that he has solid tools across the board, that may be the only thing holding him back, but for now he profiles as a utility man. He's average defensively and should be able to handle shortstop in a reserve role, though probably not as a starter, and his speed helps him be a good defensive outfielder. Eden signed for $222,500, which was $57,000 below slot, and he's slashing .234/.330/.260 with an 18/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 games at Vancouver.

7-207: 2B LJ Talley (Georgia, unranked)
Aside from being a year older, LJ Talley is actually a fairly similar player to both Cameron Eden and Tanner Morris. The South Georgia native from the small town of Folkston had a big senior year for the Bulldogs, slashing .332/.435/.489 with eight home runs and a 36/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. The senior has quick hands and produces some power, though his plate discipline took a step forward this year and he finished with a low 12.6% strikeout rate and a high 14% walk rate. He's also a very competent defender, one who may not stick at shortstop but who could be well above average at second base. Talley's kind of a sleeper as a senior sign who turned 22 in May, but I like him better than Eden and think he has a very good shot to hit his way up as a utility infielder. Talley signed for $22,500, which was $196,000 below slot, and he's slashing .146/.268/.229 with a home run and a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games at Class A Lansing.

9-267: C Philip Clarke (Vanderbilt, unranked)
I was a fan of Philip Clarke coming out of a Nashville high school and ranked him #122 on my 2017 list, but his high price tag led him to Vanderbilt, where he has had mixed results. As a draft-eligible sophomore this year, he slashed .308/.388/.480 with nine home runs and a 43/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games, helping lead the Commodores to the National Championship as the starting catcher. He's bat-first for sure, as he uses his clean swing to produce plenty of quality contact, and overall he projects for both average contact and power, which comes out to about 15-20 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages. His defense will decide his future role, as he's steadily improving behind the plate but still grades out as so-so. If he can continue to improve and make himself an average defender, he will be a starting catcher in the majors, something that's hard to come by. However, if his defense remains fringy like it currently is, he may be forced to move off of catcher, in which case he would be a below average left fielder or first baseman at 5'11", as his bat doesn't profile as quite strong enough to justify the defensive value. Hopefully he can remain behind the plate and add to the Blue Jays' deep crop of young catchers led by Danny Jansen. He signed for $500,000, which was more like fourth round money and $345,100 above slot, and he picked up five hits in eleven at bats (including two home runs) over his first two games with Vancouver.

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