Friday, July 26, 2019

2019 Draft Review: Miami Marlins

First five rounds: JJ Bleday (1-4), Kameron Misner (CBA-35), Nasim Nunez (2-46), Peyton Burdick (3-82), Evan Edwards (4-111), Evan Fitterer (5-141)
Also notable: Bryan Hoeing (7-201), Zach King (13-381)

The Marlins went bats early, starting off with five straight to really inject some offense into their farm system. JJ Bleday, Kameron Misner, Peyton Burdick, and Evan Edwards bring a ton of power to the table, while Misner and Nasim Nunez will help them on the defensive side. They then grabbed three straight pitchers starting in the fifth round, most notably Evan Fitterer, a projectable high school arm who received second round money to divert him away from UCLA.

1-4: OF JJ Bleday (Vanderbilt, my rank: 5)
JJ Bleday entered the season a potential first round pick, one who had power potential and plate discipline but who hadn't quite put it together. He slashed .368/.494/.511 with four home runs as a sophomore then .311/.374/.500 with five home runs in the elite Cape Cod League that summer, giving hope that the power might show up in 2019. Well, it did. The Panama City, Florida native was the star power bat for the College World Series-winning Vanderbilt Commodores, slashing .347/.465/.701 with 27 home runs and a 58/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games, leading the nation in home runs despite playing through Vanderbilt's tough SEC schedule. He's a 6'3" left handed hitter that generates a ton of power from a smooth, quick swing, and the ball really jumps off his bat. With his combination of power, feel for the barrel, and plate discipline, he should be a safe bet to be an impact hitter at the next level, one who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he's decent in right field but has a cannon arm. Bleday signed for $6.67 million, about $10,000 above slot, and he's slashing .148/.179/.259 with a home run and a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over eight games in an aggressive assignment to High A Jupiter.

CBA-35: OF Kameron Misner (Missouri, my rank: 29)
Kameron Misner, like Bleday, came into the season a potential first round pick, but his up and down junior season left evaluators feeling like they knew less about him than when the season started. He slashed .360/.497/.576 as a sophomore last year but broke his foot shortly into conference play and never got to prove himself against better pitching, so this year was going to be his chance. However, he dipped to just .286/.440/.481 with ten home runs and a 58/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for the Tigers, including a head-scratchingly bad .222/.353/.315 line in SEC play. Misner is a great athlete at 6'4" that shows power from a quick bat, and given his size you can only imagine him adding more. He also has good plate discipline and his patience at the plate enabled him to walk in 20.3% of his plate appearances this year, though he did also strike out in 21.8%. He's also a great defender in the outfield and could stick in center field with his speed and arm strength, giving all the more reason to project him as a potential five tool player. That's why the bad run through SEC play is just so frustrating, because Misner is so close to being a star. However, because he's a college bat that has struggled against advanced pitching, there are questions as to whether he'll actually figure it out, and the Marlins will hope to get him there. Misner signed for $2.12 million, about $20,000 above slot, and he's slashing .118/.375/.118 with a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over five games in the complex level Gulf Coast League.

2-46: SS Nasim Nunez (Collins Hill HS [GA], my rank: 68)
Nasim Nunez, aside from having an 80-grade baseball name, is fun to watch. The Atlanta-area high schooler is one of the best defenders in the class, easily gliding around the infield and making highlight-reel plays at shortstop. That defensive ability will give his bat all the time in the world to develop, and if he hits at all, he should be at least a utility man. However, the bat does have a long way to go. Listed at 5'9" and 160 pounds, Nunez lacks the ability to impact the ball consistently, and he likely won't ever hit for much power at all. He's a switch hitter with a smoother swing from the right side, but it's still a ground ball and line drive oriented swing. Getting on base will be the key for helping him deploy his easy plus speed, so we'll see how his plate discipline develops in pro ball. Originally committed to Clemson, Nunez signed for $2.2 million, which was $580,000 above slot, and he's slashing .227/.350/.278 with 12 stolen bases and a 27/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games in the Gulf Coast League.

3-82: OF Peyton Burdick (Wright State, unranked)
Peyton Burdick has consistently gotten better at Wright State despite missing all of 2017, what would have been his sophomore season, with Tommy John surgery. This year, as a redshirt junior, he slashed  an incredible .407/.538/.729 with 15 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 35/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. Burdick has a ton of whip in his swing that produces plenty of power, and he also has strong enough plate discipline and feel for the barrel that he can get to it more often than not. While the great numbers came against weaker competition in the Horizon League, the Cincinnati-area native also held his own on the Cape, where he slashed .252/.351/.435 with five home runs in 38 games. He also runs well and plays good defense in the outfield, and showing a good all-around game. On the down side, he turned 22 in February, giving him less development time than some of his peers drafted in the same range. Overall, because his skills were amplified a bit in the Horizon League, Burdick profiles as an average all-around player who can hit 20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages if everything breaks right and he can adjust to pro pitching well. He signed for $397,500, which was $346,700 below slot, and he's slashing .299/.385/.500 with four home runs and a 34/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games between short season Batavia and Class A Clinton.

4-111: 1B Evan Edwards (North Carolina State, unranked)
One of the best hitters in a stacked NC State lineup this year, Evan Edwards brings more power to this power-heavy draft class. As a senior this year, the Greensboro, North Carolina native slashed .330/.455/.604 with 14 home runs and a 47/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, leading the team in on-base percentage and finishing second to Angels first rounder Will Wilson in just about everything else. Edwards has a fairly long swing, but his quick hands help get the bat through the zone and help him hit for plus raw power, which he gets to in games and against quality ACC pitching. As a first baseman, the pressure will be on his bat, but with his combination of power and plate discipline, he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with middling on-base percentages if things break right. One thing to watch will be his strikeout rate, as the length in his swing does cause some swing and miss and will be exploited in pro ball. He's also a senior who turned 22 shortly after the draft and stands at "just" six feet tall, so he's not quite a guarantee. Edwards signed for $122,500, which was $400,100 below slot, and he's slashing .272/.359/.419 with four home runs and a 47/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games between Batavia and Clinton.

5-141: RHP Evan Fitterer (Aliso Niguel HS [CA], my rank: 78)
This was the big overslot signing, as the Marlins gave Evan Fitterer second round money here in the fifth round. Fitterer was a high schooler from Southern California armed with a low 90's fastball, two breaking balls, and a changeup that might be his best pitch. He's projectable at 6'3" and with a quick arm, and he also commands everything pretty well. The changeup and command are both very advanced for a high school pitcher, though he did turn 19 in June and is old for the class. He also occasionally sees velocity dips, though that should be alleviated once he fills out a little more and gets on a pro throwing program. Overall, he doesn't have the biggest upside but profiles as a mid-rotation starter if everything comes together, with a key for him being sharpening one or both of his average breaking balls. Committed to UCLA, Fitterer signed for $1.5 million, over $1.1 million above slot, and he has a 1.04 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and an 8/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.2 innings in the Gulf Coast League.

7-201: RHP Bryan Hoeing (Louisville, unranked)
Bryan Hoeing has been great in a swingman role for Louisville, but the Marlins are likely to use him as a full time reliever. In 2019, the Batesville, Indiana native had a 3.00 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 75/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 innings, making 17 relief appearances and five starts. He's a big guy at 6'6" and he uses that size to fire a low 90's fastball, a decent curveball, and a good splitter. He doesn't throw with much effort, but the stuff is just a bit light if he wants to remain a starter in pro ball and it will play up in the bullpen full time. A redshirt junior, he already turned 22 in October. He signed at slot for $229,700, and he has a 1.50 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 3/2 strikeout to walk ratio through six innings for Batavia.

13-381: LHP Zach King (Vanderbilt, unranked)
Zach King never quite put it together for Vanderbilt, but he has some upside if the Marlins can help him get on track. The Tennessean from just outside the Nashville area had a 6.18 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and a 47/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings, showing very good stuff but ultimately getting hit harder than he should have. He's a 6'6" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider, albeit one without that sharp break that you want, and those two pitches enabled him to get a bunch of strikeouts in the SEC. However, his command comes and goes and he was hit when he fell behind in the count, so the Marlins will want him to improve there to end up a middle reliever down the line. King signed for $125,000 and has thrown three shutout innings, striking out three, in the Gulf Coast League so far.

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