Thursday, July 18, 2019

2019 Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

First five rounds: Shea Langeliers (1-9), Braden Shewmake (1-21), Beau Philip (2-60), Michael Harris (3-98), Kasey Kalich (4-127), Stephen Paolini (5-157)
Also notable: Ricky DeVito (8-247), Tyler Owens (13-397), Joey Estes (16-487)

After failing to sign first rounder Carter Stewart in 2018, the Braves got the ninth overall pick this year in addition to their regular first round pick at #21, and they used them on two of the best college position players in Texas in Baylor's Shea Langeliers and Texas A&M's Braden Shewmake. They also signed several underslot deals early on, saving about $1.5 million between Langeliers and second rounder Beau Philip, and they spread that extra money around on several hard to sign high schoolers on Day Three. In fact, with $125,000 as the de facto slot value in rounds 11-40, the Braves signed four different players to bonuses above $250,000 in those rounds and a fifth at at just a hair under $200,000. They love to draft and develop young pitching, and it has worked out for them with guys like Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, Joey Wentz, and Bryse Wilson coming through the pipeline, so guys like Tyler Owens and Joey Estes will hope to join that group down the line. It's a high risk draft given all the high schoolers, but they hope that those early picks will mitigate some of that.

1-9: C Shea Langeliers (Baylor, my rank: 11)
Adley Rutschman was the clear best catcher (and near-consensus best player) in this year's draft as someone who was exceptional on both sides of the ball, but Shea Langeliers might actually be the better defender. The Dallas-Fort Worth area native has an absolute cannon behind the plate, and his exceptional defensive actions behind the plate make him a safe bet to not only stick as a catcher but provide serious positive value back there. Given how the Braves love to draft and develop young pitching, having Langeliers there to work with those kids will be an added bonus. However, his bat isn't as sure of a thing as his glove, especially as a top ten pick here. He had a big freshman season at Baylor and slashed .313/.388/.540, but that line dropped to .252/.351/.496 as a sophomore and a broken hand early in his junior season this year clouded his draft status. He bounced back very nicely and finished the year with a .308/.374/.530 line, ten home runs, and a 29/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games, including an incredible showing against Nebraska-Omaha in the NCAA regional in Los Angeles where he picked up five hits, including a single, a double, and three home runs, in six at bats. Overall, his 14% strikeout rate was fairly low, though so was his 8.7% walk rate, and his numbers across the board were more good than great. He has some power but may need some minor mechanical changes to tap into it more, though with average plate discipline and feel for the barrel, he ultimately projects for 15-20 home runs annually with middling on-base percentages if his bat develops as expected. His glove, though, will take a ton of pressure off that bat. He signed for $4 million, which was $950,000 below slot, and he's slashing .203/.294/.324 with a home run and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games at Class A Rome.

1-21: SS Braden Shewmake (Texas A&M, my rank: 40)
I remain a bit skeptical of this pick, but not as much as I was a month ago due to Braden Shewmake's hot start in the Class A South Atlantic League. Shewmake gives the Braves a second straight Texas college position player, as well as a second straight kid from DFW; Langeliers grew up in Keller on the Fort Worth side, while Shewmake comes from Wylie on the Dallas side. Oh, and they were born one day apart in November of 1997 in the same DFW metroplex. Anyways, Shewmake has been a consistent performer all three seasons down at Texas A&M, and he capped it off by slashing .313/.374/.474 with six home runs and a 27/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games this season. He finds the barrel extremely easily, as evidenced by just a 9.6% strikeout rate against tough competition this season, tending to spray line drives around the field with occasional over the fence pop. At 6'4", he's still projectable and could add additional power, but too often this season I felt that he lacked the ability to truly impact the ball consistently, especially given his size. I think the key to success for Shewmake as a first round pick will be developing that power, because otherwise he projects as a utility infielder with solid on-base percentages. He's also not a lock to stay at shortstop, as he's not the steadiest defender and may have to move to second or third base. His makeup and leadership are reportedly plusses, so that should help him maximize his ability. Shewmake signed at slot for $3.13 million, and he's off to a torrid .358/.404/.509 start with a home run and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games with Langeliers at Rome.

2-60: SS Beau Philip (Oregon State, unranked)
At 60th overall, Beau Philip was actually the first player drafted that I did not have ranked on my pre-draft list. The Sacramento-area native transferred from San Joaquin Delta College to Oregon State this season, then slashed .311/.369/.486 with five home runs and a 36/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games for the Beavers. Philip is an athletic kid with some solid raw tools, though with only 44 Division I games under his belt, he doesn't quite have the track record that some would like to see. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he's good at driving the ball into the gaps and he has enough speed to make things happen on the bases. That also helps him out defensively, where he has a strong arm and should be either a solid shortstop or a very good defensive third baseman. Overall, he hasn't really put it all together, but with his talent and age (he doesn't turn 21 until October, making him extremely young for the class), the Braves hope that pro refinement can make him a competent utility infielder or even a fringe starter who could hit for solid on-base percentages and ten or so home runs per season with positive defensive value. He signed for $697,500, which was $462,500 below slot, and he's slashing .123/.247/.233 with two home runs, three stolen bases, and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games at rookie level Danville.

3-98: OF Michael Harris (Stockbridge HS [GA], unranked)
After three straight college picks from major programs, the Braves turned back to their own back yard to grab high schooler Michael Harris out of Stockbridge High School on the south side of the Atlanta suburbs. Jeff Francoeur (Parkview HS, 2002), Brian McCann (Duluth HS, 2002), and Jason Heyward (Henry County HS, 2007) were all early draft picks as high schoolers from the Atlanta area that went on to star for the Braves, and Drew Waters (Etowah HS, 2017) is on the way as well while Lucas Sims (Brookwood HS, 2012) didn't quite work out. Harris was actually a two-way player in high school, but the Braves are betting on his offensive upside and will stick him in center field. Offensively, he's a switch hitter whose swing is a bit quicker from the right side than the left, but he has some power in his quick hands. He's going to need mechanical refinements in both of his swings, as he lacks much extension at this point and also has his fair share of swing and miss. He'll be a project, but he has high upside as a potential power/speed guy who can play a good center field. Committed to Texas Tech, he instead signed for $547,500, which was $43,600 below slot, and he's slashing .383/.453/.468 with a pair of stolen bases and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League.

4-127: RHP Kasey Kalich (Texas A&M, unranked)
Going back to College Station, the Braves took Shewmake's teammate Kasey Kalich in the fourth round. The South Texas native from Victoria began his collegiate career at Blinn College but transferred down the road to A&M for his sophomore season this year, where he posted a 3.18 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 51/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings out of the bullpen. Though he's a sophomore, he turned 21 in April and was draft-eligible this year, and he uses his mid 90's fastball and solid slider to generate a ton of swings and misses. He'll have to refine that slider a bit in pro ball to get more bite on it, but his loose arm and present velocity give the Braves something to work with and gives him the upside of a solid set-up man. The command isn't pinpoint, but it shouldn't be an issue going forward. He signed for $347,500, which was $99,900 below slot, and he has a 1.69 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and an 8/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.1 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Rome so far.

5-157: OF Stephen Paolini (St. Joseph's HS [CT], unranked)
Stephen Paolini, a high schooler in Trumbull, Connecticut, was little-known on draft day and there isn't much information available on him anywhere. He's a 6'2" outfielder with some leverage in his left handed swing, though he'll need mechanical refinements to help him get to his power more consistently. Matt Powers over at Talking Chop wrote that Paolini "is a plus runner who should hit for some power." Together, it looks like the Braves are hoping that pro coaching can help him grow into a power/speed threat who can play center field, not too unlike third rounder Michael Harris. Committed to Elon, he signed for $597,500, which was $264,200 above slot, and he's slashing .159/.283/.159 with a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 games in the Gulf Coast League.

8-247: RHP Ricky DeVito (Seton Hall, my rank: 130)
Ricky DeVito was dominant as a sophomore at Seton Hall in 2018, posting a 1.88 ERA and a 67/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 starts, then he went on to put up a 2.45 ERA and a 35/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.1 innings in the elite Cape Cod League that summer. He entered 2019 with a chance to push himself into the first round conversation with a good spring, but DeVito ultimately took a step back as a junior this year. The Staten Island native put up a 3.92 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 68/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.1 innings, looking great some days but getting hit hard on others. DeVito used a low to mid 90's fastball and a good curveball and changeup for his big 2018, but his velocity was down a tick in 2019 and his command took a step back as he struggled to keep his mechanics together consistently. From the Braves' perspective, getting him back to being consistent with those mechanics should help his stuff tick back up in pro ball, where he could be a #4 starter, and not turning 21 until August gives him a bit of extra time. However, he's trending in the wrong direction as it stands and he carries reliever risk if he can't figure out his command. DeVito signed for $167,500, which was $1,400 above slot, and he has a 5.79 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.1 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Danville.

13-397: RHP Tyler Owens (Trinity Catholic HS [FL], unranked)
Tyler Owens is a high schooler from Ocala, Florida, who brings premium velocity from a short stature. Despite standing only 5'10", he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can blow it by hitters when he wants to. He's also got a slider and a changeup, though both lack the consistent finish that he will ultimately need in pro ball. Owens does a good job of transferring his power from his legs to his arm, but ratcheting a fastball up to 94-95 from a 5'10" frame still requires some effort regardless. It's kind of a reliever profile, but the Braves will hope to get his secondaries refined enough to get him into the back of a rotation. Owens was committed to Florida but signed for $547,500, which counted for $422,500 against the Braves' bonus pool, and he has a 4.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.2 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Danville.

16-487: RHP Joey Estes (Paraclete HS [CA], unranked)
Going well overslot again, the Braves grabbed Joey Estes from high school in Lancaster, California in the 16th round. He's a 6'2" righty with a live arm that produces running low 90's fastballs as well as a solid breaking ball with good depth, and he has shown feel for a changeup with some fade. Like a lot of kids his age, he needs to get more consistent with his mechanics and get more extension in his delivery as well as get more consistent with his arm slot, but he's got the talent and the Braves will hope to bring it out of him consistently. There is significant reliever risk here, though he also doesn't turn 18 until October and is very young for a high school senior. Committed to Long Beach State, he signed for $500,000, which counted for $375,000 against the Braves' bonus pool.

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