Phillies Sign Jake Arrieta

Jake Arrieta: 14-10, 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 163/55 K/BB, 168.1 IP
Three years, $75 million. Opt-out after two years, $55 million, team option for two years, $40 million (or more based on Cy Young related escalators) that cancels opt-out

Many of the players who have signed in March have gotten well below-market deals, unfortunately, However, that is not the case for Jake Arrieta, who signed for three years and $75 million to go pitch in Philadelphia. He has an opt out after two years and $55 million, but the Phillies can "void" the opt out by "extending" him by two years and $40 million, meaning the contract could be as large as a five year, $115 million deal. The guarantee within the contract is probably not as long as he would have liked, but at this point he made out pretty well considering the circumstances of this awful offseason. Arrieta is no longer the ace he was in 2015, as his ERA has jumped from 1.77 to 3.10 to 3.53 in the past three seasons, but he's still a solid #2 arm that can really help a Phillies team that is trending in the right direction. $25 million per season actually strikes me as a bit much for Arrieta (well actually $30 million, then $25 million, then $20 million), but it does make up for the lack of longevity in the deal as well as being able to bring him to a team that's not contending...yet. Having also added Carlos Santana on a three year deal this offseason, I don't see Philadelphia winning a Wild Card in 2018, but they could compete by 2019 with that young core growing up. Arrieta himself still has some left in the tank, having put up a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 30 starts last year, and he'll only be 32, 33, and 34 for the guaranteed portion of this contract, which isn't too bad. However, do expect his ERA to jump a little, due in part to natural decline but also due to the Phillies' more hitter-friendly home park as well as their inferior defense when compared to that of the Cubs. For his career, the former TCU Horned Frog is 88-56 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 197 games (191 starts); however, since he was traded to the Cubs in 2013, he is 68-31 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 128 starts.