Friday, July 13, 2018

2018 Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

First 5 rounds: Matt McLain (1-25), Jake McCarthy (CBA-39), Alek Thomas (2-63), Jackson Goddard (3-99), Ryan Weiss (4-129), Matt Mercer (5-159)
Also notable: Tyler Holton (9-279), Nick Dalesandro (10-309), Blaze Alexander (11-339)

Not being able to sign first round pick Matt McLain was a big blow to the draft class, but I think they still managed to scrap together a very nice class, that competitive balance pick at #39 really helping. They focused on hitters for the first three picks before jumping to college pitchers for five picks in a row, and they were able to sign a couple of IMG Academy stars to large over-slot bonuses a bit later in the draft. Obviously, there's no headline pick in this draft class since they missed on their first rounder, but there's a lot of second tier talent spread around and D-Backs fans can look at this as a quantity draft.

1-25: 2B Matt McLain (my rank: 65)
Despite the ranking, I actually didn't mind this pick when the Diamondbacks made it because McLain is definitely a second round talent and one that I figured the D-Backs would try to cut a deal with to save slot space. However, they were unable to sign him, and I therefore am not a fan of this pick, which is hard to say because I do like McLain as a player, just a little lower in the draft. He's a high school infielder from Southern California, one who succeeds with average tools that play up due to his work ethic and feel for the game. He's skinny and probably won't hit for too much power, though there is some whip in his swing and it should spray lots of line drives once higher level coaching streamlines it to keep it in the zone longer. Defensively, he's nothing special, but he can play all around the infield and has a chance of sticking at shortstop in pro ball, though that's far from a given. He'll be eligible for the 2021 draft and in the meantime will hope to provide a spark for a UCLA program that has underperformed in recent years.

CBA-39: OF Jake McCarthy (my rank: 31)
I'm actually a big fan of McCarthy as a player and I really like this pick. The UVA outfielder was great in 2017 (.338/.425/.506, 5 HR, 27 SB, 35/26 K/BB) and was looking to build on that in 2018 when a broken wrist caused him to miss more than half the season. He still managed good numbers in his 20 games, slashing .329/.414/.415 with nine stolen bases and a 9/10 strikeout to walk ratio, though he failed to hit a home run. UVA plays in a pitchers' park and preaches a line-drive approach at the plate, so that explains his low power numbers in college, but I expect him to hit for more in pro ball due to his clean, explosive swing that should respond well to some loft. Defensively, he has the speed to stick in center field and could be a top of the lineup force in Arizona. Additionally, with a July birthday, he's young for the class, and he signed for $1.65 million, which is $184,500 below slot. He slashed .273/.333/.455 with a strikeout, a walk, and a stolen base in three games for the rookie level Arizona League before earning a promotion to the short-season level Northwest League, where he is slashing .231/.322/.346 with a home run, six stolen bases, and a 13/4 strikeout to walk ratio through 14 games.

2-63: OF Alek Thomas (my rank: 47)
Thomas is somewhat of a cross between McLain and McCarthy as a player, interestingly enough, playing McCarthy's position with his power potential but at McLain's age and with his noted game feel and attitude. Thomas comes from high school in Chicago, and where his dad is actually the strength and conditioning coach for the White Sox. I originally saw him as more of a fourth outfielder type but as he continued to show a very advanced approach at the plate, I warmed to him and moved him up about twenty spots on my rankings. At just 5'11" and fairly skinny, there isn't much power projection, but he could post high on-base percentages and steal lots of bases with his selective approach and plus speed. He's great defensively and should stick in center field, which will take some pressure off his bat, but adding power to his game would be big for him and would get him over the hump. He signed for $1.2 million, which is $164,500 below slot, and he's playing exactly as expected in the Arizona League, slashing .324/.400/.451 with six stolen bases and a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio through 16 games, hitting no home runs yet but knocking three doubles and three triples.

3-99: RHP Jackson Goddard (my rank: 109)
Goddard is one of those guys with great stuff who hasn't been able to put it together in college due to inconsistency and poor command. He pitched for Kansas, where this year he went 5-1 with a 4.10 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 60/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 52.2 innings. He's a 6'3" righty that throws in the low to mid 90's and also adds a good slider and a good changeup, showing an arsenal that could be nearly major league ready. However, he struggles to command it, with those issues often stemming from his high effort delivery. The Diamondbacks will probably continue to run him out as a starter at first but he's probably best off as a reliever, where he could consistently sit around 96 and buckle hitters with his offspeed stuff if he can command it. He signed for $550,000, which is $15,100 below slot, and he has allowed three earned runs through four innings on two hits, three walks, and two strikeouts in four appearances between the Arizona League and the Northwest League.

5-159: RHP Matt Mercer (my rank: 99)
Mercer has a similar story to Goddard, though I like him just a bit better. The Oregon pitcher finished his junior year 5-7 with a 4.16 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an 86/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 88.2 innings, showing a low to mid 90's fastball but not much in the way of offspeed pitches. While he, like Goddard, struggles with command, I like him better because he maintains his stuff throughout his starts and even though he's an inch shorter at 6'2", he looks to have a little bit more projectability. If the D-Backs can help him with that release point and get his offspeed stuff going more consistently, they could have stolen a back-end starter here in the fifth round. Otherwise, he's make a good reliever. Mercer signed for $314,800, right at slot, and he has allowed one earned run over four innings on three hits, one walk, and three strikeouts in three appearances between the Arizona League and the Northwest League.

Others: 4th rounder Ryan Weiss has been the ace of the Wright State pitching staff over the last two seasons, finishing 2018 9-2 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 92/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 innings. He has better command than both Goddard and Mercer, though his fastball sits in the low 90's and doesn't reach the mid 90's as often as those two. His curveball and changeup are there and he has the best chance of sticking in the rotation of the three, and while his ceiling is probably the lowest, it's not by much. 9th rounder Tyler Holton has been exceptional over three years at Florida State, going 13-7 with a 2.44 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 234/65 strikeout to walk ratio in 190.2 innings since his freshman season, but he missed all but one start of his junior season with Tommy John surgery and won't pitch until 2019. The D-Backs were able to jump in and buy low, and he might end up being better than the three pitchers I've already written about. His fastball sits in the upper 80's and doesn't get above 90 all that much, but it plays up due to deception as well as his slider/changeup combination, and if he can add just a little velocity, he could surprise a lot of people. Unfortunately, he just turned 22 in June, and he may be 23 before he throws his first professional pitch. 10th rounder Nick Dalesandro is a light hitting Purdue catcher who slashed .297/.400/.402 this year with a pair of home runs, 27 stolen bases, and a 31/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games. It's not your typical profile for a catcher, as he shows great speed and a patient approach at the plate without much power. Because he has the ability to stick behind the plate, Arizona will give his bat plenty of chances to catch develop and he could be the fastest catcher in the majors if he gets that far. 11th rounder Blaze Alexander is a high schooler out of the IMG Academy in Florida, with his $500,000 signing bonus taking up $375,000 of the Diamondbacks' slot space. He play shortstop and can stick there defensively, more-so because of his excellent arm (he can hit 95 on the mound) than because of his range. His bat takes some time to get into the zone, leading to contact and consistency problems, but he generates good bat speed and could have plus power to the pull side down the road if he taps into it enough. He's really a high-upside player who could be an impact player on the major league club if he does improve that contact, especially because he can play shortstop.

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