First 5 rounds: Nolan Gorman (1-19), Griffin Roberts (CBA-43), Luken Baker (2-75), Mateo Gil (3-95), Steven Gingery (4-123), Nick Dunn (5-153)
Also notable: Lars Nootbaar (8-243), Brandon Riley (14-423), Connor Coward (26-783)
The Cardinals always seem to draft well with too many homegrown stars to count, and this year looks no different. They got some really good players, especially for where their picks were, and it wouldn't surprise me if a couple turned out to be stars. They drafted high schoolers in the first and third rounds but otherwise stuck with college players, not taking a third high schooler until the 22nd round. They also split it up between hitters and pitchers, leaning a little heavier on the hitters in the first ten rounds but overall striking good balance. With the hitters, they did seem to focus on power early, and this draft could fill out the middle of their lineup a few years down the road. As always, a good job by St. Louis.
1-19: 3B Nolan Gorman (my rank: 13)
Gorman is a high schooler from the Phoenix suburbs, showing perhaps the best raw power in the entire high school class. The left handed hitting third baseman generates huge exit velocities and can hit the ball a mile, though the rest of his game could use some work. He takes some time to get his hands going and his swing is somewhat long, but his hands are so quick once they're moving that he shouldn't have too much trouble in the low minors. The Cardinals will surely work with him on shortening that swing in order to help him catch up to quicker fastballs in the mid and upper minors. At this point, he struggles a bit with breaking balls and looks a bit uncomfortable in the box against better pitching, so the Cardinals do have their work cut out for them. On defense, he could stick at third base, but first base is also a possibility. That's not the most glowing report, but Gorman's power is so great that it makes up for all of that and his upside is that of a 30-40 homer per year slugger. He signed for just over $3.2 million, right at slot, and he's slashing an excellent .313/.432/.597 with six home runs and a 16/14 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games after an aggressive assignment to the rookie level Appalachian League.
CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (my rank: 55)
This is a pick I wouldn't be thrilled with if I were a Cardinals fan, but Roberts does have a lot of upside for a college arm. The 6'3" righty out of Wake Forest had an interesting college career, pitching great as a reliever in 2017 (2.19 ERA, 80/32 K/BB, 53 innings) but regressing a little as a starter this year (3.82 ERA, 130/38 K/BB, 96.2 innings). As a starter, his fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and he throws an excellent put-away slider and a decent changeup, though that fastball bumps into the upper 90's as a reliever. He does throw with some effort and his command isn't always there, but he continued striking guys out in bunches even with the transition to the rotation this year. He also dominated the Cape Cod League as a starter (1.97 ERA, 35/6 K/BB, 32 innings), and he just may be able to stick as a starter. He'll have to tighten that command and improve that changeup, but the upside is high here for a college pitcher. His age is a minor negative, as he already turned 22 in June and he is really the age of a young college senior. He signed for a little under $1.7 million, right at slot.
2-75: 1B Luken Baker (my rank: 51)
Baker is a slugger, plain and simple, and if he hadn't suffered a pair of freak, season-ending injuries in the past two seasons, I think he could have easily gone in the top 50 picks. Baker was one of the top recruits to make it to college for the 2016 season, setting the world on fire as a freshman both on the mound (3-1, 1.70 ERA, 41/16 K/BB, 47.2 innings) and at the plate (.379/.483/.577, 11 HR, 39/45 K/BB) at TCU. The Horned Frogs slugger gave up pitching after his freshman year, though he never matched his freshman numbers. This year he was slashing .319/.443/.575 with nine home runs and an 18/24 strikeout to walk ratio before going down with a broken leg 31 games into the season, a year after he had ended his sophomore season with a fractured arm. Baker is a huge, huge person, listed at 6'4", 265 pounds, and he looks it. As you'd expect, he's a bottom of the scale runner and isn't a great fielder either at first base, though he does have a cannon arm. His head jerks a bit when he swings, though the rest of his swing is clean, and he manages the strike zone exceptionally well for such a burly hitter (12.9% K rate, 17.1% walk rate). I would like to see just a little more power given his lack of defensive value, though I'm confident the Cardinals will bring it out of him. He signed for $800,000, which was a whole $400 over slot, and he is 1-4 with a home run, a strikeout, and a walk in his first two games in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.
3-95: SS Mateo Gil (unranked)
Gil is a high schooler from the Fort Worth area, showing power potential as well as the possibility of being able to play shortstop. He'll need a lot of work, as he swings and misses a lot and has not proven he can make his power play to the opposite field, something pitchers will take advantage of immediately. If the Cardinals can improve his pitch recognition and clean up his swing, Gil could be a dynamic contributor for the team. He signed for $900,000, which is $312,400 above slot, and he's slashing .254/.371/.288 with no home runs and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 16 games in the Gulf Coast League.
4-123: LHP Steven Gingery (my rank: 70)
This is a great buy-low get for the Cardinals. Gingery was absolutely lights out at Texas Tech in 2017 (10-1, 1.58 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 107/29 K/BB, 91 innings) but blew out his elbow in his first start of 2018 and needed Tommy John surgery. When healthy, the 6'2" lefty throws his fastball right around 90 but he commands it well and gets hitters out with possibly the best changeup in a draft stacked with changeups. He lacks much projection, but if he can make his fastball and curveball tick up just a little, he should have no trouble stepping into a major league rotation. The fact that he's very young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September also buys him time to return from surgery and still be on track. He signed for $825,000, which is $378,100 above slot.
26-783: RHP Connor Coward (unranked)
I watched plenty of Connor Coward at Virginia Tech, where he just finished his senior year 2-7 with a 5.19 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 76/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 78 innings for the Hokies. He never put up big numbers, with his 4.75 ERA in 2017 marking his career best in Blacksburg, but he does have the chance to make something of himself as a minor leaguer. He's fairly inconsistent but throws his fastball in the low 90's and when his curve is working, it's a pretty good pitch. His delivery is easy, though he could use to take a step forward with his average command, and he has no trouble maintaining his stuff deep into starts. However, because his stuff is fringy overall, he'll be best off going to the bullpen where it can play up and give him a shot at major league middle or long relief. He signed for an undisclosed amount and is currently dominating the Gulf Coast League, tossing eleven innings and allowing one run (0.82 ERA) on five hits, no walks, and 13 strikeouts while averaging nearly three innings per appearance.
Un-drafted Free Agent Signing: C Joe Freiday (unranked)
The Cardinals also picked up Coward's battery mate, catcher Joe Freiday, as an un-drafted free agent. Freiday has always been a fringe-prospect, showing great tools but never quite putting it together on the field. Standing 6'3" and weighing 240 pounds, he's got plenty of power, but his aggressive approach leads to too many swings and misses. He struggled mightily on the Cape after his sophomore year in 2016 (.105/.105/.316, 1 HR, 11/0 K/BB) and hit mediocre as a junior in NCAA play in 2017 (.225/.315/.423, 8 HR, 53/13 K/BB). As a senior this year, his power dipped, and he finished at .250/.338/.400 with five home runs and a 33/15 strikeout to walk ratio. What stands out to me is the improvement in his plate discipline, which was visible if you watched him play, as he dropped his strikeout rate from 32.3% to a more reasonable 20.6% while upping his walk rate from 7.9% to 9.4%. He chased fewer pitches and was more willing to go the other way, but he can really turn on balls on the inner half. On defense, he moves well and can block his share of balls in the dirt, but he really stands out for his excellent arm strength that generated consistent pop times below 2.00. He'll have a long road to the bigs because even with the improvement in his plate discipline, he still swings and misses far too much and will be exploited by pro pitching. So far in the Gulf Coast League, he's slashing .286/.500/.286 with no extra base hits and a 5/6 strikeout to walk ratio in four games.
Others: 5th rounder Nick Dunn comes from the University of Maryland, where he finished his junior year slashing .330/.419/.561 with ten home runs and a 19/32 strikeout to walk ratio. He plays second base and uses his very advanced approach at the plate and clean swing to help his average offensive tools play up. He also performed very well on the Cape over two years (.321/.394/.415, 2 HR, 35/34 K/BB in 81 games) and should be able to get to the majors quickly. He doesn't have too much upside but could be a fringe-starter who focuses on on-base ability. 8th rounder Lars Nootbaar comes from the University of Southern California, where he was much better as a sophomore (.304/.416/.473, 5 HR, 32/35 K/BB) than as a junior (.249/.357/.373, 6 HR, 37/34 K/BB). He's a contact hitting outfielder with good plate discipline that will help him transition well to pro ball, but the ceiling is that of a fourth outfielder, basically a cheaper Nick Dunn at the plate. 14th rounder Brandon Riley, a utility man from UNC, was also better as a sophomore (.317/.406/.496, 7 HR, 34/37 K/BB) than as a junior (.284/.386/.416, 5 HR, 47/45 K/BB), upping both his strikeout and walk rates this year. He has some speed and will provide more defensive value than Dunn and Nootbaar, and he should be a high floor, low ceiling prospect for the Cards that could get to the majors quickly.
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