Teams love advanced college pitchers and are quick to take them early, yet this group of right handers is thin at the top and none are threatening to go in the top five picks, with only three looking like locks for the first round. However, once you get past the thin first tier, there are quite a few names to choose from, and they come in about as many shapes and sizes as you could hope for.
Tier I: Jackson Rutledge, Alek Manoah, George Kirby
There's no debate that this is the first tier, as you would be hard pressed to find anyone listed here ranked below anyone listed in the next tier. Jackson Rutledge surpassed Carter Stewart as the top junior college arm available, and depending on who you ask, some (myself included) would say he's the best college right hander available period. Rutledge transferred from Arkansas to San Jacinto CC in Houston, and the results could not have possibly been any better for the 6'8" righty. The St. Louis native has bumped his fastball consistently into the mid 90's, topping out in the upper 90's with regularity and missing plenty of bats. It's not just the fastball, though, as he spins a curve and a slider to knock hitters off balance, both of which could be plus pitches. He needs to work on his changeup and command, as well as his overall consistency, but his upside is perhaps the highest among any pitcher in this draft. He should go in the top half of the first round. Alek Manoah has been downright incredible for West Virginia this year, posting a 1.85 ERA, an 0.88 WHIP, and a nasty 135/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings heading into the NCAA Tournament. Back in April, he had a three start stretch against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Kansas in which he tossed 26 shutout innings on just ten hits, no walks, and 41 strikeouts; that'll get it done. The big-bodied 6'6" Florida native sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, and his slider has improved into a true strikeout pitch while his changeup has become a usable third pitch and his command has improved as well. Still, Manoah needs to further refine his secondary pitches and command if he wants to be an ace or #2 guy, and while he has much less reliever risk than he did a few months ago, he's not the complete package quite yet as a starter. Like Rutledge, he'll go in the top half of the first round. Lastly, George Kirby is a hair behind Rutledge and Manoah, but he's a great pitcher in his own right, having finished his junior season with a 2.75 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 107/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings. He is actually the safest bet to remain a starter in this entire draft, combining a strong 6'3" frame with great command of a full arsenal. He throws in the low 90's but can reach back for more when he needs it, adding a good curveball and slider as well as a changeup. In today's game, where the three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, home runs) are emphasized, Kirby is especially dominant, having struck out 107 while allowing just six walks and three home runs all season. He lacks the ceiling of Rutledge or Manoah but projects as a strong #3 starter with less risk than other arms, and he projects to go in the middle of the first round, perhaps in the 15-20 range just a few picks behind the other two.
Tier II: Seth Johnson, Matt Canterino, Isaiah Campbell, John Doxakis, Drey Jameson
There is a big drop off after Rutledge, Manoah, and Kirby, with the second tier all coming with their fair share of concerns and little probability that more than one will be a first rounder. Seth Johnson is the most likely of that crew to end up there, raising his stock astronomically in the last calendar year. At this time last year, he was a light hitting shortstop at Louisburg College in North Carolina, but the wicked fastball/slider combination he displayed in his transition to the mound gives him a high ceiling. He posted a 4.72 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 77/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings against relatively weak competition in the Big South, but it was his first time pitching and he showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a good slider and a usable curveball and changeup. His command isn't pinpoint but he was able to find the strike zone consistently, and he should continue to improve in that respect down the road. With no track record to speak of, he's a risky pick, but he won't turn 21 until September and the 6'1" righty has a high ceiling if he can continue on his current trajectory. Over at Rice, Matt Canterino put up a second straight strong season by posting a 2.90 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 112/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 93 innings heading into the tournament. He's 6'2" with long arms and a bit of a funky delivery, but he repeats it well and throws plenty of strikes. Stuff-wise, he sits in the low 90's and adds a pair of very good breaking balls, though in pro ball he'll need to work on his changeup. He currently has mid-rotation starter projection but could be a #2 if he continues to command everything well, though the effort in his delivery could push him to the bullpen. He figures to go in the comp round or early second round. Isaiah Campbell could have gone in the top five rounds last year, but he was young for the class and stayed an extra year at Arkansas. After posting a 4.26 ERA in 2018, he dropped it to 2.50 in 2019 heading into the tournament with a 0.96 WHIP and a 97/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings. He still throws in the low to mid 90's from a high release point with a good slider, but what was fringy command last year has been tightened up to average this year. He adds a curveball and an interesting splitter, both of which need work, and the development of those pitches will likely be the difference as to whether he ends up a #3 starter or a power reliever. He'll probably be drafted in the same range as Canterino. John Doxakis has had an exceptional SEC career, and he capped it off with a 1.84 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 106/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings for Texas A&M this year. Doxakis is 6'4" but only throws around 90 with his fastball, instead relying on a good slider and better command to keep hitters off balance. He's got a little bit of effort in his delivery and while it doesn't impact his ability to spot his pitches, it creates some questions as to whether he can stick in the rotation long term. Still, he's built like a starter and has strong makeup, so he could add some velocity and end up a solid #3 or #4 starter long-term. He won't be 21 until August and he figures to go in the same range as Canterino and Campbell, but I like the other two just a bit better. Lastly, Ball State's Drey Jameson is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft, having posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 146/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings against relatively weaker competition in the MAC. He's only six feet tall and skinny at that, but he sits in the mid 90's and holds that velocity consistently, adding a pair of very good breaking balls. Jameson's live arm could help teams dream on a Sixto Sanchez-type player (though Sanchez has better command and ironically is almost a year younger), though like Sanchez he faces durability concerns due to his slight frame. His ability to hold his fastball velocity does give him a strong shot to remain a starter, and he could go anywhere from the comp round to the end of the second round.
Tier III: Ryan Zeferjahn, Ryne Nelson, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Hess, Noah Song
Four of the five of these guys face serious reliever questions, and I find it unlikely that more than one of them aside from Song ends up a big league starter. Ryan Zeferjahn has perhaps the best shot after posting a 3.97 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings for Kansas, though he got blown up for nine runs in his last start against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament. Zeferjahn was a top three rounds prospect coming out of high school in Topeka and the scouting report is roughly the same now, as the 6'4" righty can sit in the mid 90's and add a very good slider, but his awkward mechanics impact his command and his consistency (he had tossed 7.1 shutout innings against the same Kansas State team a week earlier). Because of this, he probably only has a 50/50 shot at remaining in the rotation, though his fastball/slider combination could play up in the bullpen and be very effective. He should go in the second or third round. Ryne Nelson is more likely than not going to be a reliever, especially after a tough stretch late in the season. Nelson had a 4.29 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 104/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings for Oregon, showing premium mid to upper 90's velocity and a good slider from an athletic 6'4" frame. However, his poor command and lack of a reliable third pitch cause those first two to play down in the rotation, but in the bullpen he has the potential to hit 100 MPH. He just needs to clean up his command, and he'll probably be a third round pick. Ryan Pepiot had an up and down season for Butler, posting a 3.92 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 126/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings. This showed a little bit of regression from his strong 2018 (2.62 ERA, 101/32 K/BB), and he gets by with a four pitch mix headlined by a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup. His two breaking balls, combined with that changeup, helped him carve up Big East hitters, but they're a little bit too soft to be strikeout pitches against pro hitters. He also tends to lose his command of the strike zone from time to time, so a move to the bullpen might help him with his consistency and enable him to focus on either his curve or his slider instead of both, though pro coaching could make him a #4 starter. He looks like a third rounder. Zack Hess was eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and his scouting report has not changed much, but he has been as inconsistent as anybody this year with a 4.70 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 78/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings. Hess is 6'6" and can sit in the mid to upper 90's as a reliever, but he's been used mostly as a starter, where his fastball is more low to mid 90's. He also has a very good slider that can be a true out pitch out of the bullpen, but his mediocre command and lack of a reliable third pitch kept him from succeeding in the LSU rotation. There is still some talk of running him out as a starter in pro ball, but it seems like that experiment has played its course and he should become a full time reliever, where his fastball/slider combination could make him a strong set-up man and help him get to the big leagues quickly. He should be a third round pick. Lastly, Noah Song has one of the most unique profiles in college baseball. The 6'4" senior put up video game numbers at Navy this season (11-1, 1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 161/31 K/BB in 94 IP), but he's required by law to serve two years in the Navy before he can pitch professionally. On one hand, it's hard to pass on a guy who throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good slider as part of a full arsenal which he commands somewhat well, but on the other, he might not get to pitch professionally until after his 24th birthday. A team willing to be patient with him could get a fringe-first round arm somewhere later in the draft, so where he ends up is completely up in the air.
Others: Ryan Garcia, Ryan Jensen, Alec Marsh, Tyler Baum, Hunter Brown
*Carter Stewart has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and will not be draft-eligible. He would have fit into Tier II.
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