First five rounds: Kody Hoese (1-25), Michael Busch (1-31), Jimmy Lewis (2-78), Ryan Pepiot (3-102), Brandon Lewis (4-131), Jack Little (5-161)
Also notable: Aaron Ochsenbein (6-191), Jeff Belge (18-551), Brennan Milone (28-851)
I really like the job the Dodgers did with this draft, taking advantage of their extra first round pick (compensation for not signing 2018 first rounder J.T. Ginn) to grab two low-risk, potential impact hitters right away. After potentially reshaping the middle of their order for years to come, they took pitchers with five of their next six picks, and I especially like second rounder Jimmy Lewis's upside. Combine them with potential fast-moving relievers in fifth rounder Jack Little and sixth rounder Aaron Ochsenbein, and the Dodgers could get a lot of impact out of this class in the relatively near future.
1-25: 3B Kody Hoese (Tulane, my rank: 28)
Kody Hoese was a 35th round pick after slashing .291/.368/.435 as a draft-eligible sophomore at Tulane in 2018, but nobody expected what happened this year, when the Chicago-area native from the Indiana side slashed .391/.486/.779 with 23 home runs and a 34/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games for the Green Wave. Hoese emerged out of nowhere to show big power from a simple swing and a 6'4" frame while bumping up his walk rate but not his strikeout rate. Without much of a track record, it's hard to call Hoese a safe bet even as a college hitter, but if he can continue to build off the strides he made in 2019, he could be a true impact hitter for the Dodgers with 25-30 home runs annually and solid on-base percentages. Defensively, he's nothing special but his strong arm means he'll stick at third base, but the Dodgers are buying the bat here and hope to get a middle of the order hitter. Some recent examples of college hitters to explode from out of nowhere in their draft year are Andrew Benintendi (2015, Arkansas), who worked out extremely well for the Red Sox, Drew Ellis (2017, Louisville), who is still working things out in the Diamondbacks system, and Jonathan India (Florida, 2018), for whom it's too early to evaluate, as well as fellow 2019 first rounder Hunter Bishop. Hoese signed for $2.74 million, right at slot.
1-31: 2B Michael Busch (North Carolina, my rank: 23)
As you can tell by the rankings, I actually like Busch better as a hitter than Hoese. The Minneapolis-area native has a longer track record of hitting in a more difficult conference as well as in the elite Cape Cod League (6 HR, .322/.450/.567, 17/19 K/BB), though Hoese's raw 2019 numbers were more impressive. In 2019, he slashed .284/.436/.547 with 16 home runs and a 39/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games, holding a .273/.369/.531 line against tough pitching in ACC conference games. Busch, like Hoese, hits for plenty of power, and as a very selective hitter, he was able to draw far more walks than strikeouts throughout his college career as well as on the Cape. He features a similar offensive outlook to Hoese, though I expect his on-base percentages to be slightly better. Defensively, his future is much more uncertain, as he lacks much in terms of foot speed or arm strength, and he's been mediocre at first base and in left field. The Dodgers drafted the solidly built six footer as a second baseman, which could conceivably work if he continues to work hard to improve there as he has at his other two positions, though he'll likely always be below average there. Slot value is $2.31 million, which is about fair.
2-78: RHP Jimmy Lewis (Lake Travis HS [TX], my rank: 52)
The Dodgers didn't get to pick until after the second round because they signed A.J. Pollock but also lost Yasmani Grandal, and they went after a high ceiling high school arm. Jimmy Lewis was teammates with Mets' first rounder Brett Baty at Lake Travis High School in the Austin area, and as a 6'6" righty, he offers plenty of projection. Lewis currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a somewhat inconsistent curveball that looks like a plus pitch at its best as well as a fairly advanced changeup for a high school pitcher. He throws with easy arm action and a fairly clean delivery, which allows him to throw plenty of strikes, and he should only get better with pro coaching. I like this pick a lot, as it's easy to peg him with mid-rotation upside, but as a Louisiana State commit, he'll likely require more than the allotted $793,000 to sign.
3-102: RHP Ryan Pepiot (Butler, my rank: 86)
Ryan Pepiot had a fantastic sophomore season at Butler (2.62 ERA, 101/32 K/BB), but his junior season this year was more up and down. He finished with a 3.92 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 126/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, looking dominant at times (13 K's over 6 shutout innings against Xavier) and struggled at others (allowed 18 runs [16 earned] over 12.2 innings over his next three starts against Seton Hall, Villanova, and Air Force). Pepiot is a 6'3" right hander with a low 90's fastball and a full set of secondaries, though it was his plus changeup that allowed him to rack up all those strikeouts. His curve and slider look good at times but likely won't be putaway pitches in pro ball, so the effectiveness of his changeup as well as his ability to sharpen his command will likely dictate whether he can stick in a professional starting rotation. The Indianapolis native comes with some reliever risk due to the command and breaking ball inconsistencies, but his durable frame and possession of four pitches will give him every chance to crack it as a potential #4 starter. Slot value is $571,400.
4-131: 3B Brandon Lewis (California-Irvine, unranked)
After taking three Midwesterners and a Texan with their first four picks, the Dodgers plucked UC-Irvine's Brandon Lewis out of their own backyard, as Lewis grew up in the San Fernando Valley just north of Dodger Stadium and Downtown LA. Lewis weighed 285 pounds coming out of high school, so rather than accept his only offer at Cal State Northridge just down the road from his house, he spent two years losing weight and honing his skills at Pierce College, also just down the road from his house. He then transferred to UC-Irvine weighing in at 215 pounds, still in the LA area but at least on the other side of the city this time, and put up a monster season despite a pitcher-friendly home stadium, slashing .315/.408/.598 with 14 home runs and a 58/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He has easy plus raw power and was able to get to it consistently against average competition in the Big West, though there are questions about his approach and hit tool that are likely made worse by his significant pre-swing bat wrap. Because he also struggled at times against better fastballs, I think that bat wrap will have to go, and the Dodgers will have to hope that doesn't sap his power. Defensively, he has gotten more athletic as he has lost weight, but he still may have to move off third base and over to first base. Lewis is raw, but he's very young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until October, so the Dodgers are betting on his high upside here. Slot value is $430,800.
5-161: RHP Jack Little (Stanford, unranked)
Third rounder Ryan Pepiot was a starter for Butler in a small conference, while Jack Little is a reliever for Stanford in a big conference, but the two actually are fairly similar pitchers. After posting a 0.61 ERA and a 56/8 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2018, Little, like Pepiot, took a small step back as a junior, posting a 3.37 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 55/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.2 innings out of the Cardinal bullpen. Little is a 6'4" righty from Las Vegas that comes from a lower arm slot that produces a ton of run on his pitches, but he still commands everything pretty well. Like Pepiot, he throws four pitches starting with a low 90's fastball, with his changeup being his best pitch with significant fade and his two breaking balls falling behind a bit. Because of the lack of a plus breaking ball and his current status as a reliever, I think it is less likely that he could transition to starting and that makes Pepiot the better prospect, but Little could be an effective reliever who could potentially be stretched out to multiple innings due to his four pitch mix and relatively easy delivery. Slot value here is $321,100.
6-191: RHP Aaron Ochsenbein (Eastern Kentucky, unranked)
After back to back selections from California schools, the Dodgers went back out east to grab Aaron Ochsenbein from Eastern Kentucky University in the state's bluegrass region. The Lexington native put up video game numbers out of the Colonels' bullpen this year, posting a 0.83 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 90/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings, a massive improvement over the 4.70 ERA he carried as a redshirt junior in 2018 and the 7.90 mark he had as a redshirt sophomore in 2017. He also pitched pretty well on the Cape this past summer, posting a 3.42 ERA and a 43/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.2 innings. The 6'3" righty has some deception in his delivery, using it to help his low to mid 90's fastball, excellent splitter, and average slider play up. The splitter is what enabled him to strike out 90 batters over 54.1 innings at EKU this year as well as 43 batters over 23.2 innings on the Cape, and it will be his out pitch in pro ball as well. He's exclusively a reliever and there are no plans for him to try starting, but he could move very quickly and be in the majors by 2020 if everything goes well. As a fifth year senior this year, he's already 23 and will turn 24 at the start of next year's spring training, so he'll definitely want to move quickly. Slot value is $249,000, but he'll likely get significantly less than that as the Dodgers try to save cap space to buy Jimmy Lewis away from LSU.
18-551: LHP Jeff Belge (St. John's, unranked)
It's been a wild ride for Belge, who was a potential top five rounds pick out of a Syracuse high school in 2016 (he ranked #128 on my list that year) but who opted to attend St. John's instead. Despite struggling with command issues, Belge put himself on the radar to go in a similar spot after a strong sophomore season (2.83 ERA, 79/40 K/BB) sandwiched between two solid summers in the Cape Cod League (combined 3.75 ERA, 70/37 K/BB in 62.1 IP). However, his already shaky command completely fell apart in 2019, where he posted a 5.25 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and a 73/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings. Really, that K/BB/IP ratio tells you all you need to know; big stuff, no command. The big bodied, 6'5" lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball when he's at his best, adding three inconsistent secondary offerings, all of which will need refinement, but they were enough to generate chases and miss bats in the Big East. He may not sign here and instead opt to return to Queens to work on his command and pull it all together.
28-851: SS Brennan Milone (Woodstock HS [GA], my rank: 117)
Like Belge, Brennan Milone (not to be confused with Diamondbacks first rounder Brennan Malone) is unlikely to sign here. Milone will likely instead take his South Carolina scholarship and head to Columbia and build his stock for the 2022 draft. Presently, the Atlanta-area high schooler features a plus hit tool that stands out above the rest of his game. He gets the barrel into the zone quickly and can make consistent line drive contact even against better pitching, making him a fairly safe bet to hit in pro ball once he gets there. However, he's a skinnier guy and he's not guaranteed to generate much power, especially with his line drive swing, and he currently projects for about 10-15 home runs per season, albeit with good on-base percentages. He was drafted as a shortstop, but with his mediocre speed, he looks more like a second or third baseman, either of which he will be adequate at. If he can add some pop or at least further prove his hit tool, he could come out of South Carolina a potential Day One prospect.
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