Wednesday, June 26, 2019

2019 Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

First five rounds: Quinn Priester (1-18), Sammy Siani (CBA-37), Matt Gorski (2-57), Jared Triolo (CBB-72), Matt Fraizer (3-95), J.C. Flowers (4-124), Grant Ford (5-154)
Also notable: Blake Sabol (7-214), Ethan Paul (9-274)

The Pirates took a couple of high-upside high schoolers at the start of the draft, then took ten straight college players as they followed the general trend in this year's draft. Interestingly, all of the college players they took early on actually come with risk/reward profiles that are more similar to high schoolers, so it looks like they really targeted upside overall in this draft. Given that they had competitive balance picks in both the A and B rounds and therefore five of the first 95 picks, I actually find their draft class to be a bit light, but we'll see how these upside guys turn out down the road.

1-18: RHP Quinn Priester (Cary-Grove HS [IL], my rank: 20)
The Pirates seem to like high school pitchers, and they grabbed another in Quinn Priester. The Chicago-area native entered the spring looking more like a comp round or early second round pick, but he pitched extremely well despite the nasty Chicago weather and pushed himself up boards. Most high school pitchers are much more "thrower" than "pitcher," but Priester is very much the latter, as he reportedly taught himself to pitch by watching YouTube rather than using a pitching coach. The results of his efforts are a low to mid 90's fastball and a very good curveball with solid command, though his changeup is still coming along. Given how much progress he made on his own, it's very easy to envision him taking another step forward with pro instruction, especially on the changeup and command fronts, and he even seems like the guy who could add a slider down the road. At 6'3", Priester is very athletic and does a very good job of getting his legs into his delivery to create velocity, and all together he is one of the more "starterish" high school pitchers in this draft. Priester has work to do, but he has a high ceiling and his feel for the game will help him make the most of his talent. He signed for $3.4 million, which was $80,000 below slot and diverted him away from a TCU commitment.

CBB-37: OF Sammy Siani (Penn Charter HS [PA], my rank: 48)
Siani hails from Pennsylvania, but he's not exactly a hometown player because he comes from the other end of the state in Philadelphia. His older brother, Mike, is currently at Class A Dayton in the Reds organization, though Sammy beat him by 72 picks after Mike signed over slot as a fourth rounder in 2018. Sammy is only 5'11" but he uses his smooth, uppercut swing to generate average power despite his size, and that should grow as he fills out his frame. That power also comes with an advanced hit tool, as Siani can make consistent hard contact from the left side of the plate and could be an all-around contributor at the plate. He's pretty fast and while he probably won't stick in center field, he should be a solid right fielder that produces some positive value out there. Overall, he projects for 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages, though as a 5'11" high schooler, he comes with his share of risk. It took $2.15 million, or $150,000 over slot, to sign him away from a Duke commitment, then he picked up two hits in ten at bats while striking out four times in his first two games the complex level Gulf Coast League.

2-57: OF Matt Gorski (Indiana, my rank: 137)
As you can tell by my ranking, I find this to be a questionable pick. Despite being a college junior, Gorski actually comes more with the risk/reward profile of a high school player. After a big sophomore season where he slashed .356/.404/.554 at Indiana, he regressed this year and dropped to .271/.374/.498 with 12 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 62/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. The Indianapolis native comes with plenty of tools, as he shows power and stole 57 bases over three years in Bloomington, also adding in a strong arm. However, his mechanics tend to break down at times and you have to question his feel for the game, as he regularly plays below his tools. He has a long swing and still needs to add some loft to it to get to his power more regularly, but the 6'4" slugger struck out in 23.7% of his plate appearances this year and his hit tool is fringy as is. Because he's 6'4" and has both power and speed, he still retains his high upside at 21 years old, but he'll need some work. At best, Gorski could hit 20-25 home runs per season with mediocre on-base percentages and solid outfield defense, but he comes with more risk than the typical college hitter. He signed for $1 million, which was $240,000 below slot, and has two hits in fourteen at bats with seven strikeouts over his first four games at short season West Virginia, adding three walks.

CBB-72: 3B Jared Triolo (Houston, unranked)
Triolo is a fairly average player all around, but he's interesting and has some upside. In 2019, he slashed .332/.420/.512 with seven home runs and a 30/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games for the University of Houston, and that came on the heels of a solid .276/.364/.423 run through the Cape Cod League. The Austin-area native shows good feel for the barrel to go along with strong plate discipline, though his power is slightly below average at this point because his swing is more geared towards line drives. His swing may be fine as is, and that would lead to solid on-base percentages along with ten or so home runs a season, but some adjustments could help him tap the power in his 6'3" frame and get him up to 15-20 home runs annually. He's a solid-average defender at third base, and overall he projects as a fringe-regular who may more likely end up as a part time starter at the major league level. However, if he takes well to mechanical changes, he has the hitting aptitude to turn himself into a solid regular. He signed for $868,200, or $2,500 below slot, and he's slashing .217/.269/.522 with a home run and a 4/2 strikeout to walk ratio through his first six games at West Virginia.

3-95: OF Matt Fraizer (Arizona, unranked)
The Arizona Wildcats may have finished fifth in a tough Pac-12 this year with just a 15-14 in-conference record, but in the third round of the draft, Matt Fraizer was already the third Wildcat hitter drafted after Cameron Cannon (#43, Red Sox) and Nick Quintana (#47, Tigers). Fraizer slashed just .266/.352/.359 as a sophomore in 2018 then dropped to .165/.240/.187 over 31 games on the Cape, but he came out of the gate a different hitter in 2019. In March, the Fresno, California native was slashing .412/.452/.565 with a home run and a 6/6 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games, but he broke his hand and that marked the end of his season. The Pirates obviously liked what they saw in those 19 games, and they'll hope that the breakout was for real. Fraizer has a quick, line drive swing that can spray balls around the park, and at 6'3", he should be able to tap some power at the next level. He's also fast, allowing him to impact the game in yet another way, and that makes him a solid center fielder. Given Fraizer's lack of a track record, he comes with more risk than the typical college player, but he also has a high ceiling and this pick could turn into a steal if that breakout truly was for real. He signed for $525,500, which was $85,800 below slot.

4-124: RHP J.C. Flowers (Florida State, unranked)
Flowers was both Florida State's starting center fielder and its closer, and although he slashed .268/.374/.500 with eleven home runs as a hitter this year, the Pirates look like they prefer him as a pitcher. The Jacksonville native had actually never pitched at the collegiate level prior to this season, as he broke his jaw as a sophomore and decided to take to pitching after his subsequent struggles. On the mound this year, he posted a 1.66 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.2 innings, also saving eleven games. He's a 6'3" righty without the typical velocity you'd like from college relievers, sitting in the low 90's, but he adds a solid hard slider and a present changeup despite being new to pitching. You'd typically think a pitcher like this would be confined to relief, but by taking him the fourth round, the Pirates must be taking into account his inexperience and his athleticism and concluding that he has a good chance to start. For now, he looks more like a back-end starter, but he definitely has the chance for more if he takes well to starting. Slot value is $460,000 and he has not signed yet.

5-154: RHP Grant Ford (Nevada, unranked)
Well, Grant Ford went unranked on both the MLB Pipeline top 200 and the Baseball America 500, and YouTube has no video on him since high school, so I'll admit I don't know much about him and I'll do my best here. He's a 6'1" righty from San Jose who posted a 2.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 51/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings for Nevada, a massive improvement over his poor 2018 season. Video from high school shows long arm action with a riding fastball, a solid changeup, and a fringy breaking ball, though he has historically struggled with his command at Nevada and seemed like he finally figured out the strike zone in 2019. He's likely a reliever at the next level and he signed for $422,500, which was $79,100 above slot, then allowed three runs over 1.2 innings in his first appearance at West Virginia.

7-214: OF Blake Sabol (Southern California, unranked)
Blake Sabol is a very talented player who hasn't quite gotten it together during his time at Southern California, and as a junior he slashed just .268/.346/.368 with three home runs and a 40/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. However, he showed what he can really do with a white hot run through the Cape Cod League over the summer, where he slashed .340/.445/.573 with seven home runs and a 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games. Like Gorski and Triolo, he's a big guy at 6'4" but hasn't quite tapped his power as much as he should, as his mechanics get out of whack at times and he'll need a lot of refinement. There's a high ceiling here as a starting outfielder, but as a college junior, he has to make the adjustments quicker than a high schooler would. He signed for $247,500, which was $41,000 above slot, and he is slashing .227/.370/.364 with a 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over six games at West Virginia.

9-274: SS Ethan Paul (Vanderbilt, unranked)
If you're watching the College World Series like I am as I write this, you've probably heard Ethan Paul's name as Vanderbilt's senior shortstop and three hitter. This year, he was a key cog in the Vandy offens, slashing .311/.382/.495 with nine home runs and a 64/31 strikeout to walk ratio through 70 games coming into the last game of the season. He's average across the board, showing some contact ability, mediocre but present power, and some speed. Defensively, he probably won't stick at shortstop but he'll be able to handle second base just fine, and he ultimately projects as a utility infielder. Slot value is $152,300, but as a senior who will be 23 in August, it will take less than that for him to sign.

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