Saturday, June 8, 2019

2019 Draft Review: Oakland Athletics

First five rounds: Logan Davidson (1-29), Tyler Baum (2-66), Marcus Smith (3-104), Kyle McCann (4-134), Jalen Greer (5-164)
Also notable: Drew Millas (7-224), Colin Peluse (9-284), Sahid Valenzuela (13-404)

The A's like to go their own way when it comes to the draft, and this year was no different. They used an interesting strategy because they not only went for upside in their three Day Two high school draftees, but also looked for upside with their first three college selections in the first, second, and fourth rounds. Overall, though, I'm not a huge fan of this draft class because I feel that they lack enough true impact upside to justify the level of risk in their draftees. My personal favorite selection is 13th rounder Sahid Valenzuela out of Cal State Fullerton, which you can read about at the bottom.

1-29: SS Logan Davidson (Clemson, my rank: 32)
A year after taking Missouri State shortstop Jeremy Eierman in the second round, the A's grabbed a similar college performer in Logan Davidson. The three year starter for Clemson has also been a three year performer, capping it by slashing .291/.412/.574 with 15 home runs and a 61/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games as a junior. However, despite 42 home runs and an on-base percentage over .400 in his 187 games at Clemson, he struggled in the elite Cape Cod League, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games between two summers. The discrepancy between his performance in the ACC and with wood bats is not too dissimilar to his former teammate and 2018 first rounder Seth Beer, who is enjoying a strong season in the Astros' system (12 HR, .319/.416/.554), but there is reason to doubt Davidson just a bit more than Beer. While Beer didn't strike out much at Clemson, Davidson struck out in 20.7% of his plate appearances as a junior and he doesn't have the smoothest swing. That said, he is a strong defender at shortstop, which will buy his bat time, and that ACC track record still gives him the upside of a power hitting shortstop with 20-25 home runs annually and decent on-base percentages. It's just also a risky profile for a first round college bat. Slot value is $2.42 million, which seems fair for the Charlotte native.

2-66: RHP Tyler Baum (North Carolina, my rank: 100)
For their next pick, the A's travelled about four hours up I-85 to grab Davidson's ACC opponent Tyler Baum. Entering super regional play, the Orlando native has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings, showing major league stuff throughout his career at UNC but never quite pulling it all together. He's a 6'2" righty with a some extra movement in his delivery, which produces low to mid 90's fastballs as well as three good offspeed pitches in a slider, a curve, and a changeup. His command isn't pinpoint but it has gotten better throughout his time in Chapel Hill, with his unspectacular college performance stemming from inconsistency in his secondary stuff. It's not often that he has all three offspeeds working at once, with the curve and slider tending to blend into each other at times, and the changeup can flash plus but usually plays closer to average. Combine that with the extra movement in his delivery and he could be ticketed to the bullpen, but because they're drafting him in the second round, the A's must believe he can make it work as a starter. In my opinion, a small step forward in his stuff could really go a long way, and he could be a mid-rotation starter if his skinny frame can hold up over a full season. Slot value is $1 million, which also seems fair here.

3-104: OF Marcus Smith (Pembroke Hill HS [MO], unranked)
Marcus Smith is one of those athletic outfielders who can't really do much other than run, but every once in a while they can develop into stars. Smith, out of Kansas City, is a left handed slap hitter who uses his quick bat to spray line drives around the field, then uses his speed to do the rest of the work. For now, he's really only a singles hitter and he will take significant time to develop into something more, but the A's likely see a chance that Smith can develop at least some gap power, which he could turn into doubles and triples with his wheels. He's a strong defender due to that speed, but this pick overall comes with a lot of risk with some solid if unspectacular upside. Slot value is $560,000 and I honestly have no idea what it will take to buy him out of his Michigan commitment.

4-134: C Kyle McCann (Georgia Tech, my rank: 108)
Even though they went to the college ranks here, the A's got some upside in this pick. Kyle McCann had a huge season for Georgia Tech, slashing .299/.468/.674 with 23 home runs and a 77/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games, and the numbers say it all for his offensive profile. The Atlanta-area native has big raw power that he got to regularly against tough ACC foes, and he draws a ton of walks (20.9% rate) to pad his on-base percentage. On the flip side, he strikes out even more (25.9%) and slashed just .219/.309/.344 with two home runs and a 36/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games on the Cape, leading to questions as to how well his offensive profile will translate to pro ball. Defensively, he remains a work in progress and is not a lock to remain a catcher, giving his profile another hit. With all of that said, McCann is a high upside, high risk college player who could figure it all out and hit 25 home runs a year in the majors while sticking behind the plate, or he could be forced to move off of catcher then fail to hit enough with the first base pressure on his bat. Still, in the fourth round, this is probably my favorite pick that the A's made in this draft just due to the upside. Slot value is $418,200, which also sounds about right.

5-164: SS Jalen Greer (St. Rita HS [IL], unranked)
In the fifth round, the A's grabbed a raw, toolsy high schooler out of Chicago's South Side. Greer has some pop from the right side, using the natural loft in his swing and 6'3" frame to make the ball jump off his bat. He has also improved his fringy hit tool to the point where scouts, especially in Oakland it seems, are more confident that he'll get to that power. Defensively, he has worked hard to remain at shortstop, but he's more likely a third baseman long term. He's young for the class and has been praised for his work ethic, and he's an interesting upside play here in the fifth round. Slot value is $312,400, and again I am not sure what kind of money it will take to buy him out of his Missouri commitment.

7-224: C Drew Millas (Missouri State, my rank: 128)
After he slashed .321/.416/.500 with seven home runs as a sophomore at Missouri State, Drew Millas looked like a potential Day One pick if he could build off that in his junior season. Instead, he hit .275/.370/.422 with five home runs and a 55/27 strikeout to walk ratio this year and dropped to the seventh round. Millas is a glove-first catcher with a great arm and exceptional actions behind the plate, making him a lock to not only stay there but positively impact the game every day. The real questions come with his bat, because in addition to the mediocre junior season, he slashed just .261/.327/.293 in 28 games on the Cape, having shown some power stemming from the loft in his swing and decent plate discipline, but nothing that stands out. The A's will work to help the 6'2" St. Louis-area native generate more impact at the plate, in which case he could be a Jeff Mathis-type backup for a long time with the potential to hit for a bit more power. Slot value is $191,500.

9-284: RHP Colin Peluse (Wake Forest, unranked)
After solid freshman and sophomore seasons at Wake Forest, Colin Peluse had a rough go as a junior, posting a 5.74 ERA, a 1.64 WHIP, and a 71/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings for the Demon Deacons. He slipped to the ninth round, where the A's took the 6'3" righty with the crossfire delivery with hopes of straightening him out. He doesn't throw overly hard but his slider, changeup, and command give him a shot at being a #5 starter if he can get just a bit more consistent and sharpen the stuff just a little. He struck out ten in seven innings on the Cape last summer, but he's much more of a safe bet than an upside play. Slot value is $149,300.

13-404: SS Sahid Valenzuela (Cal State Fullerton, unranked)
Sahid Valenzuela looked very promising after slashing .314/.366/.377 as a true freshman at Cal State Fullerton in 2017, but he regressed to .272/.313/.358 as a sophomore and has had a roller coaster ride since then. He slashed .286/.342/.410 in 26 games on the Cape to set himself up as an interesting draft prospect, but he hurt his arm in March and played much of the season hurt, slashing .288/.403/.370 with one home run and a 21/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games for the Titans before finally going down with Tommy John surgery on May 2nd. He's very good defensively and should stick at shortstop, and his feel for the barrel and strike zone awareness give him a good chance to hit for average in pro ball once he recovers from surgery. The 5'9", 165 pound switch hitter is also no stranger to roller coaster rides, having grown up in a small Arizona border town near Yuma before moving to California to pursue his baseball dreams, and his strong work ethic will help him make the most out of his skill set. He does plan to sign here in the 13th round according to the Santa Cruz Sentinel, and I also read an interesting article on NCAA.com about him a couple years ago that you should check out:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2017-06-17/college-world-series-cal-state-fullertons-sahid-valenzuela-fulfills

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