First five rounds: Greg Jones (1-22), J.J. Goss (CBA-36), Seth Johnson (CBA-40), John Doxakis (2-61), Shane Sasaki (3-99), Graeme Stinson (4-128), Ben Brecht (5-158)
Also notable: Nathan Wiles (8-248), Cam Shepherd (20-608)
The Rays had four of the first 61 picks and used them to their advantage, hauling in a pitching-heavy class that saw them take six arms in a span of seven picks between their first competitive balance pick and the sixth round. After getting a potential leadoff man in Greg Jones, they grabbed a couple of high-upside arms in J.J. Goss and Seth Johnson before pivoting back to mostly safety arms like John Doxakis, Ben Brecht, Colby White, and Nathan Wiles. It's a really talented class and I think the Rays will get a lot of impact out of it with a potential leadoff man, two potential impact starters, and a lot of guys who could fill out the back of the rotation.
1-22: SS Greg Jones (UNC Wilmington, my rank: 38)
More of a third rounder early in the season, Jones pushed himself up boards with a strong sophomore season and looked like a second rounder for much of the spring, then made a mad rush at the end and landed here at the 22nd pick. After hitting a respectable .278/.412/.370 as a freshman in 2018, the Raleigh-area native got better and better throughout his draft-eligible sophomore season and finished with a .341/.491/.543 slash line, five home runs, 42 stolen bases, and a 44/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. Though he's a sophomore, Jones turned 21 back in March, making him the age of a typical junior, but he also hit like much more than the typical junior so it all evens out. He's exceptionally fast, as evidenced by those 42 stolen bases this year as well as 20 in 37 Cape Cod League games (where he slashed a respectable .259/.374/.353). He's also a very patient hitter, as evidenced by his 18.9% walk rate this year (as well as 15% on the Cape), and that patience becomes even more valuable because more walks gives him more chances to deploy his speed on the bases. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, though he's a skinny 6'2" and could eventually grow into enough to keep pitchers honest, but his real calling card will be his ability to spray line drives from gap to gap and let his wheels do the rest. He has the potential to turn into a true leadoff hitter with high on-base percentages and game-changing speed. Defensively, he's just decent at shortstop and some evaluators believe he would be better off moving to center field, where his speed could make him very valuable. Jones signed at slot for $3.03 million and is 4-8 with a double and a stolen base over his first two games at short season Hudson Valley.
CBA-36: RHP J.J. Goss (Cypress Ranch HS [TX], my rank: 24)
I really like this pick, as J.J. Goss has the chance to be a true impact starter. The 6'3" righty from the Houston suburbs checks all the boxes as a high school pitcher, showing a low to mid 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a good changeup, all of which he can command fairly well. He has room to fill out that 6'3" frame and add velocity, and his fluid delivery and whippy arm bode well for both adding velocity and continuing to improve his command. Even though nothing stands out as a true plus for him, he's very well rounded for a high school pitcher and could be a #2 starter. The Rays do extremely well with these kinds of pitchers, so I'd expect Goss to rise up prospect rankings throughout his time in the Tampa system. They managed to sign him at slot for just $2.05 million, which surprised me given his Texas A&M commitment and that pick #36 is a little lower than some projected him to go.
CBA-40: RHP Seth Johnson (Campbell, my rank: 30)
Johnson may be a college pitcher, but his profile is more similar to most high school pitchers given his risk, upside, lack of track record, and even age to a point. Johnson is a 6'1" righty who began his college career as an unheralded shortstop Louisburg College in Northern North Carolina, but some impressive bullpen sessions and a grand total of six innings on the mound led to Campbell, a Division I school off I-95 in Buies Creek, taking a chance on him as a pitcher. His statistics showed mixed results as he posted a 4.61 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an 81/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66.1 innings against mediocre competition, but if you watched him pitch, you would know why he went from a nobody to a competitive balance draft pick. The Charlotte-area native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, none of which are consistent but all of which can look very good at their best. While nobody would mistake him for Greg Maddux, Johnson already throws his fair share of strikes, and his smooth, low-effort delivery bode well for improving that command. To top it all off, Johnson is very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until August, so he's not as old as most college projects, which typically fall farther in the draft. Johnson hasn't gotten results yet, but his ability to turn himself into a real pitcher that flashes premium stuff with athleticism and some command virtually overnight has the Rays betting that he'll continue on this rapid upward trajectory in pro ball. He's far from a sure thing, though, and while his ceiling puts him as a #2 or #3 starter, a lot can go wrong along the way. Johnson signed for $1.72 million, $140,000 below slot.
2-61: RHP John Doxakis (Texas A&M, my rank: 47)
The Rays went and grabbed another college pitcher in the second round, but Doxakis is very different from Johnson. He had a fantastic season statistically, posting a 2.06 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 115/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings against a tough schedule, including a 2.23 ERA and a 62/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings in SEC play, where he faced some of college baseball's best lineups. The Houston native is 6'4" but actually sits around 90 with his fastball, instead relying on his above average slider, good command, and deceptive delivery to keep hitters off balance. With that average stuff, it's hard to project him as anything more than a back-end starter in pro ball, but his feel for pitching as well as his projectability with a skinny 6'4" frame give the Rays hope that he can add some velocity and get past that. Doxakis also has a bit of a funky delivery that might push other pitchers with similar skill sets to the bullpen, but he has the feel for pitching and the makeup to avoid that, at least in most potential outcomes. He signed for $1.13 million, right at slot.
3-99: OF Shane Sasaki (Iolani HS [HI], unranked)
Sasaki is a raw high school outfielder from Honolulu, one with a good all around game but also plenty of risk. Sasaki is a skinny six footer but generates some power with a big swing from the right side, as the torque and loft he generates could give him some pull side home runs. However, he probably won't ever hit more than 15-20 home runs per season in a best case scenario, so contact will also have to be a part of his game. It's questionable right now, and the length of his swing doesn't help ease those questions. Defensively, he uses his speed to be an above average center fielder, so all the pressure won't be on his bat. Obviously, the Rays believe they can make the power play up while maintaining his contact ability, and they're hoping to have gotten a solid every day player with this pick. Slot value is $587,400, but he has not signed yet.
4-128: LHP Graeme Stinson (Duke, my rank: 74)
Very few players saw their draft stock nosedive quite like Stinson's did in 2019. After posting a 1.89 ERA and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore reliever in 2018, he struck out twelve over five shutout innings in his one Cape Cod League start and positioned himself as a potential top ten pick if he could prove he could hang as a starter. Long story short, he didn't. The Atlanta native lasted just five starts before a hamstring injury ended his season with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings. Stinson is a 6'5" lefty who can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball when healthy while adding one of the best sliders in the draft class, one that could probably miss major league bats today. The Rays may give him another shot as a starter, but he'll have to get a few things done to stay there. He'll have to continue to develop his changeup and he'll have to prove his durability. Many scouts are worried that the hamstring injury was not an isolated incident, as he checks in at 250 pounds and doesn't have the strongest frame. Even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could prove lethal if he's healthy, and I think gambling on the upside was a great move by the Rays here. He signed for $440,400, which was actually $2,500 below slot.
5-158: LHP Ben Brecht (UC Santa Barbara, my rank: 123)
Despite being a tall college left handed pitcher like Stinson, Brecht actually shares very little with the man drafted a round before him. The 6'7" lefty from the Chicago suburbs had a fairly unremarkable season for UC Santa Barbara, posting a 4.10 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 101/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings. Despite his height, he's more about command and control as his fastball sits just a hair over 90 and his offspeeds do more to keep hitters off balance than to really miss bats. However, he uses his height to get good angle on his pitches, and when you combine that with his feel for pitching and command, he can really control the strike zone like a pro. The Rays are banking on that pitchability aspect and will hope that his stuff and velocity can take the small step forward they need to get him into the back end of a major league rotation. He signed for $297,500, which comes in $32,600 below slot.
8-248: RHP Nathan Wiles (Oklahoma, unranked)
In the eighth round, the Rays grabbed a generic right handed college pitcher out of Oklahoma in Nathan Wiles. This year, he posted a 4.40 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an 83/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings for the Sooners, though nine earned runs in his last start inflated his ERA by almost a run. The Kansas City-area native sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a decent slider and a changeup, with his command sticking out more than anything else. He's durable at 6'4" and with his strong track record of throwing strikes, the Rays will hope to sharpen his stuff a little bit and get him into the back end of the rotation, though he has a bit more work to do than Brecht. He signed for $162,900, which was $2,500 below slot.
20-608: SS Cam Shepherd (Georgia, unranked)
I'm not sure if Shepherd is going to sign here after what was a disappointing junior season for Georgia. He came to Athens as a highly regarded recruit who ranked #118 on my 2016 draft list then slashed .307/.354/.452 as a true freshman, but his line dropped to .244/.357/.385 as a sophomore then this year he hit just .231/.333/.386 with eight home runs and a 51/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. That line was dragged down by an awful .185/.244/.315 line through SEC play, further putting into question whether the Atlanta native can hit higher level pitching. It's his hit tool that stands out for him offensively, and he draws plenty of walks to boost his on-base percentage, but with below average power, Shepherd has a lot to prove at the plate. Fortunately, he's a good defender and may be able to stick at shortstop, otherwise he'll make a very good second baseman.
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