Friday, June 7, 2019

2019 Draft Review: New York Yankees

First five rounds: Anthony Vople (1-30), T.J. Sikkema (CBA-38), Josh Smith (2-67), Jake Sanford (3-105), Jake Agnos (4-135), Ken Waldichuk (5-165)
Also notable: Hayden Wesneski (6-195), Kevin Milam (14-435), Jack Leiter (20-615), Joey Lancellotti (34-1035)

Using an interesting draft strategy, the Yankees stayed away from raw tools like power and velocity (third rounder Jake Sanford aside) and instead went for gritty, high-makeup players whose competitiveness helps their limited tools play up. That is certainly the case with first rounder Anthony Volpe and competitive balance pick T.J. Sikkema, but it can also be applied to second rounder Josh Smith, sixth rounder Hayden Wesneski, and even Sanford, who was completely unheard of just a few months ago. Volpe has a very strong commitment to Vanderbilt, but the New Jersey native grew up a Yankees fan and was picked higher than he was expected to go (he ranked 52nd on Baseball America, 58th on my list, and 63rd on MLB Pipeline). There isn't much upside in this draft, but the entire group will be interesting to follow through the minors.

1-30: SS Anthony Volpe (Delbarton HS, my rank: 58)
Anthony Volpe, a Yankees fan from New Jersey, is one of the more interesting high schoolers in this draft class. Volpe has no loud tools; he's quick but not that fast, he lacks power, and his arm is just average. Watching video on him while building my notes, he didn't stand out. However, those who have seen him in person can't stop talking about him. MLB Pipeline writes that he "gets an 80 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale for his work ethic and makeup," and if you understand that scale, they don't just give out 80's to anybody. Volpe plays hard, works tirelessly to improve his game, and is a true leader in the dugout. Those intangibles make him a prime candidate to outplay his tools by a wide margin. That said, the tools are just average and this is the first round that we're talking about. Volpe does a good job of getting the barrel to the ball and spraying line drives around the field, though he's just 5'11" and has shown no interest in selling out for power. Defensively, he isn't the best athlete on the field, but he makes all the plays he can reach and reaches a few extra due to his strong instincts, giving him a shot but no guarantee to stick at shortstop. If he has to move to second base, he could be excellent there, and he could start as a high OBP regular with 5-10 home runs per year. He has a very strong commitment to Vanderbilt, and it will likely cost the Yankees more than the $2.37 million slot value to divert him away from Nashville, but they wouldn't have drafted him in the first round if they didn't think they could get a deal done.

CBA-38: LHP T.J. Sikkema (Missouri, my rank: 70)
Like Volpe, T.J. Sikkema plays the game hard and is a prime candidate to outplay his average skill set. Sikkema is the next in a line of great Missouri performers, following Tanner Houck's first round selection by the Red Sox in 2017. Sikkema has been fantastic over his career in Columbia, and he capped it off with an unreal junior year where he went 7-4 with a 1.32 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 101/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, mostly against tough SEC competition (though his ten unearned runs make his RA9 a slightly more believable 2.33). He doesn't have explosive stuff, but he has been described as a "bulldog" on the mound and that makes his low 90's fastball, good slider, and present changeup play up despite average command. He's stocky at six feet tall and therefore lacks projection, and his present stuff pegs him for the back of the rotation, so the Yankees will hope his feel for pitching helps him outplay that projection. He's young for the class with a July birthday, and if he has to move to the bullpen, his competitiveness will help him there. He has already signed for just over $1.95 million, right at slot value.

2-67: SS Josh Smith (Louisiana State, my rank: 83)
Keeping with the theme, the Yankees grabbed what is essentially a college version of Anthony Volpe, though he's more just a gritty player than the second coming of the media's depiction of Derek Jeter. Prior to the start of super regionals, Smith is slashing .346/.436/.533 with nine home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 42/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games, showing no plus tools but an overall game that should translate up. He keeps his strikeouts down but also doesn't draw a huge number of walks, which will become an important part of his game if he wants to cut it as a starting infielder because his power will be average at best and likely below that. He's pretty good at shortstop, though he's not a lock to stay there and may be forced over to second base, where he would be a very good defender. Overall, he projects more as a utility man than a future starter, one who could hit for high averages but not provide much else at the plate. He's fast, but the speed isn't game changing. Slot value here is $976,700, and I wouldn't be surprised if a little bit of that didn't go to Volpe.

3-105: OF Jake Sanford (Western Kentucky, my rank: 131)
Jake Sanford is a really interesting one. Completely un-scouted out of a high school in Nova Scotia, he received exactly zero offers to play college baseball. Only Dalhousie University in Halifax came calling – about a volleyball scholarship. Instead, Sanford packed it up and headed west to the tiny town of McCook, Nebraska and walked on at McCook Community College. He then proceeded to bat .364 with 23 home runs over two seasons but was still hardly noticed out on the high plains, so he transferred to Western Kentucky to play for the Hilltoppers in 2019. There, he finally got noticed and then some, slashing .398/.483/.805 with 22 home runs and a 50/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, impressing a lot of scouts not only with the numbers but with his batting practice performances. He has easy plus raw power that played up in games in the Conference-USA (he slashed .439/.521/.862 in conference against schools like Southern Miss, Rice, Florida Atlantic, and Louisiana Tech), though with no track record against higher level pitching, he's hard to project in pro ball. I couldn't find much video on him before the draft so I didn't feel right moving him much higher than I had him, but once he gets under pro coaching, he has a higher ceiling than most college bats in this part of the draft and he could be a real impact bat. Despite above average speed, he's only average defensively. He has already signed right at slot value, which is $554,300.

4-135: LHP Jake Agnos (East Carolina, unranked)
Jake Agnos is from my neck of the woods in Virginia and pitched against my team in a high school playoff game, so it's always cool to see someone like that drafted this high. Agnos had a fantastic breakout junior season, entering super regional play 11-2 with a 2.02 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 140/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 innings for the Pirates. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a pretty good curveball and an improving changeup, all of which helped him set an ECU record with 140 strikeouts and counting. However, none of his pitches grade out as plus and with average command and little projectability (he's a stocky 5'11"), he'll have to work hard to remain a starter in pro ball, with a limited ceiling as a #4 or a #5. If he gets moved to the bullpen, his fastball/curveball combination could play up from the left side. Slot value is $414,000.

5-165: LHP Ken Waldichuk (St. Mary's, unranked)
Waldichuk comes from St. Mary's College in California and was better as a sophomore (2.05 ERA, 118/21 K/BB) than as a junior this year (3.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 106/32 K/BB in 92.2 IP), but he still has plenty of starter traits for a fifth rounder. I couldn't find much video of the San Diego native from college but he throws in the low 90's from a low three quarters, nearly sidearm arm slot while adding three solid offspeed pitches, all of which he does a pretty good job of landing for strikes. As a 6'4" lefty with four pitches and solid command, he has a pretty good shot of making it to the majors as a back-end starter, and he has a chance to outplay that projection if he can sharpen some of his offspeed stuff while spotting his pitches to the corners a bit better. Like Sikkema and Sanford, he has already signed right at slot value, which is $309,500.

6-195: RHP Hayden Wesneski (Sam Houston State, unranked)
While Waldichuk throws from a very low arm slot, the rest of his delivery is fairly conventional. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have Hayden Wesneski, a 6'3" righty from Sam Houston State with a funky, sidearm delivery that produces sinking low 90's fastballs and a decent slider with surprisingly solid command. The Houston native was very good in 2019, posting a 3.32 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 110/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.2 innings, though many of those innings came against mediocre Southland Conference opponents. Some scouts think Wesneski's competitiveness gives him a chance to stick as a back-end starter in the minors, but the overall package points to the bullpen, where he could sharpen his slider and become a funky sinker/slider reliever. Slot value is $241,000.

14-435: 2B Kevin Milam (St. Mary's, unranked)
I haven't seen any news regarding Milam since the draft (re: signability/position), but he's a really interesting prospect to speculate on. Ken Waldichuk's teammate has been fantastic for three years at St. Mary's, including a 2019 junior season in which he slashed .308/.416/.488 with seven home runs and a 49/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games while also posting a 5.73 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and a 70/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings on the mound. The Yankees drafted him as a second baseman, but I'd speculate that there is at least an outside chance that they deploy him as a two way player in the minors. He's a well rounded hitter with some pop and consistent performance over three years in the West Coast Conference combined with the ability to play a solid second base, but he also sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a cutter and a slider from a 6'1" frame. I think the Yankees would be better off letting him just focus on his bat, but you never know. I am not sure if he is signable here in the 14th round or if it would require more than the allotted $125,000 to divert him away from his senior season at St. Mary's.

20-615: RHP Jack Leiter (Delbarton HS, my rank: 31)
Leiter, who is teammates with Anthony Volpe at the Delbarton School in New Jersey as well as the son of former pitcher Al Leiter, is almost certainly unsignable here in the 20th round. If he were signable, it would take a significant overpay to divert him away from a Vanderbilt commitment, and the chances of the Yankees changing his mind are very low. That said, Leiter's feel for pitching might be the best of any high school pitcher in the country, and he would have been a sure-fire first round pick if he were signable. The 6'1" righty throws in the low 90's with a very good curveball as well as a good slider and changeup, all of which he commands and mixes like a professional. His father and uncle (Mark Leiter) might have something to do with that, and Leiter should be an important contributor on Day One in Nashville, where he'll likely slot into Vanderbilt's weekend rotation as a true freshman. The one knock on Leiter is his age, as he turned 19 in April and was the second oldest high schooler with Day One aspirations behind Brett Baty. He'll be draft eligible as a 21 year old sophomore at Vanderbilt and should be a first round prospect for the 2021 draft.

34-1035: RHP Joey Lancellotti (North Carolina, unranked)
Lancellotti, like Leiter, is a year older than typical for his class, which is why he was draft eligible as a sophomore at UNC after posting a 2.08 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 56/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings heading into super regional play. I doubt that Lancellotti is signable here, as his talent dictates that he should have gone in the top ten rounds, but he could make for a useful bullpen piece if the Yankees can pull off an overslot deal. Lancellotti was also a well-known prospect out of his Philadelphia high school, and today he throws mid 90's with a good slider, though his command plays closer to average. At 5'11" and with effort in his delivery, he's likely a reliever at the next level.

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