Tuesday, July 18, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies

Full list of draftees

Lacking a third and a fifth round pick after signing Trea Turner in the offseason, the Phillies bet big on three high school bats with their first three picks, including arguably the best all-around hitter in the class outside of the consensus top two, Walker Jenkins and Max Clark. That Aidan Miller fell into their laps at the end of the first round and only required a small over slot bonus is a huge boon for Philadelphia. Behind Miller, their class is filled with players that were in that next batch of names I would have liked to research if I had more time. Beyond there, it's a physicality-laden class with fourteen of their final seventeen overall picks listed at 6'2" or taller and six coming in at 6'4" or taller.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-27: SS Aidan Miller, J.W. Mitchell HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $2.97 million. Signing bonus: $3.1 million ($131,200 above slot value).
My rank: #17. MLB Pipeline: #13. Baseball America: #20. Prospects Live: #22.
The Phillies successfully floated Aidan Miller down to their first pick, injecting a consensus mid-first round talent into their system at the back of the round. Miller is one of the best all-around hitters in the prep class, perhaps the single best high school bat after the consensus top two. He already packs tremendous strength into his 6'2" frame, helping him produce plus power that shows up consistently in games and against high level competition. Though he has an excellent track record of performance, there are some questions about his load, which includes a sizable hitch that entails pointing his bat straight in the air, stabbing backwards, and pulling his hands back into a hitting position before his swing. Though some scouts are concerned by this, others see it more as a timing mechanism and point to his ability to catch up to velocity with no trouble. The Tampa-area native can chase high fastballs at times, but generally sees the ball very well east-west and takes strong at bats. This is a hitter that could hit for both power and average at a high clip in the majors. Beyond the bat, there are some minor questions. He's not a quick twitch athlete and will have to work hard to stick at third base, where his plus arm is plenty but his range will have to hold where it's at to avoid a move to first base. Miller also missed most of his high school spring season with a broken hand and hasn't been seen much since last summer, and lastly, he's very old for the class, having turned 19 back in June. Committed to Arkansas, it took over $100,000 above slot value to pull him away from Fayetteville (between the slot values of the 25th and 26th pick) which honestly looks like a steal to me.

3-98: SS Devin Saltiban, Hilo HS [HI] {video}
Slot value: $685,100. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #182. Baseball America: #149. Prospects Live: #172.
Devin Saltiban is a split-camp prospect due to his track record. Not much of a prospect before the season, a strong senior season pushed him up boards and he came stateside to the MLB Draft Combine and MLB Draft League to get more exposure against advanced pitching. He held his own, slashing .262/.354/.405 with a pair of home runs and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games in the league, leading the Phillies to be comfortable enough to take him in the third round. Though undersized at 5'10", Saltiban stands out for his physicality and athleticism, with the ability to generate big bat speed and potentially above average power from the right side. That eleven game run through Draft League represents the majority of his exposure to higher level pitching, so how his bat plays in pro ball is still a question, one the Phillies are confidently rolling the dice on. Drafted as a shortstop, Saltiban has mostly played the outfield to this point. As an outfielder, he's a good runner that has a shot to stick in center field with further refinement and the right kind of physical development, and at worst looks like an average corner outfielder if he slows down. The Phillies will see how that skill set works on the infield, where his innate body control and athleticism could make him an interesting candidate to stick. It's a real boom or bust pick for Philadelphia, who are plucking him away from a hometown commitment to the University of Hawaii.

4-130: OF TayShaun Walton, IMG Academy [FL] {video}
Slot value: $501,600. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #168. Baseball America: #262. Prospects Live: #236.
The Phillies made it three straight prep bats with TayShaun Walton, like Devin Saltiban a powerful, athletic outfielder who wasn't seen much on the showcase circuit. Unlike Saltiban, who played way off the beaten path in Hawaii and was hard to get eyes on, Walton played on a loaded IMG Academy squad alongside two of the top 103 prospects in the country by my list, Cameron Smith and Zion Rose. He's bigger than Saltiban, standing 6'3" with plenty of present strength and physicality. The swing is more geared for line drives than fly balls right now, but he already puts up high exit velocities and it's easy to dream on more power as he learns to elevate the ball more. He made a lot of contact and controlled the zone well against strong Florida high school competition this spring, which should help him make the swing adjustment without too much of an issue. More known for his bat than his glove, the southern Virginia native is an above average runner that plays average outfield defense, with left field his most likely long term destination. As a right handed hitter with a left field profile, pressure will be on his bat to develop, but the upside is very high here. He is committed to the University of Miami.

6-193: RHP George Klassen, Minnesota {video}
Slot value: $282,900. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($17,100 above slot value).
My rank: #172. MLB Pipeline: #190. Baseball America: #217. Prospects Live: #204.
In George Klassen, the Phillies are getting one of the most electric arms in the class. That said, the lightning in his right arm is yet to manifest into results. Tommy John kept him off the mound during his true freshman season in 2021, then in 2022 he either walked or hit 21 of the 50 batters he faced (42%) and finished with a 14.09 ERA. He cleaned things up a little in 2023 and actually earned his way to a rotation spot, where he pitched to an unremarkable 5.72 ERA and a 49/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings. The numbers, of course, are nothing to write home about, but the stuff is. Klassen sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and has run it as high as 102 in short stints, giving him some of the best velocity in the entire country. While the pitch can show some riding life in short stints, it's more of a running fastball over longer outings. He has flashed plus with his hard slider that reaches the upper 80's, and this spring has shown more of a curveball, cutter, and changeup than in the past, though the changeup lags behind the rest of the arsenal. His stuff has looked better in relief than it does over longer starts, when it gets inconsistent and can flatten out. Additionally, the Wisconsin native has well below average command, with his 17.9% walk rate this spring actually showing a dramatic improvement from 2022, when he had absolutely no feel for where the ball was going. At this point, he has an idea, but that's where we're at, an idea. He has cleaned up his delivery a bit this spring but it still features considerable head whack, and overall it's almost certainly a relief profile. Klassen has some similarities to so-far-successful Phillies 2021 fifth rounder Griff McGarry, though McGarry's fastball has better shape profile and he had a few great starts down the stretch during his draft season, which Klassen did not. I'm interested to see how Klassen's stuff eats when he's pushed back to the bullpen.

7-223: RHP Jake Eddington, Missouri State {video}
Slot value: $222,900. Signing bonus: $225,000 ($2,100 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #216. Prospects Live: #286.
Jake Eddington spent his freshman season at Alabama, then missed the 2022 season with an injury and transferred back to his home state in 2023. He was up and down in his lone season at Missouri State, posting a 4.20 ERA and a 59/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.2 innings, including gems against Illinois State and Murray State and ugly starts against Bradley and Indiana State. Eddington sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 97 with average movement. He stands out most for a potentially plus slider with deep two-plane bite that missed a ton of bats in 2023. He also shows a changeup, but it's a third pitch. The 6'2" righty native struggled to throw strikes in 2023 and often found himself behind in the count, walking 15.6% of his opponents, but he has a loose, athletic delivery and could conceivably creep closer to average command as the Phillies smooth him out. Eddington will likely move to the bullpen and let his fastball/slider combination eat, though the Phillies may initially run the southern Missouri native out as a starter. Though he's a redshirt sophomore, he's very old for the class and turned 22 back in April.

10-313: RHP Cam Brown, Texas Christian {video}
Slot value: $164,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #191. Baseball America: #201. Prospects Live: #184.
Back in the summer of 2019, Cam Brown was one of the most dominant arms on the high school showcase circuit and had pushed his way into second round consideration. However, he didn't look quite right during his brief senior season before the COVID shutdown and made it to campus at TCU. There, he has continued to tantalize with big league stuff but has struggled to string together any kind of consistency, falling to the Phillies in the tenth round here. My eighth ranked prospect in the Big 12 heading into the 2023 season, he entered the season with a lot to prove but wound up showing more of the same, posting a 5.20 ERA and a 62/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.1 innings. It was nice to see him improve his strikeout rate from 20.6% to 24.4%, though his walk rate also jumped from 13.0% to 15.7%. Brown sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, regularly touching 97 and holding his velocity consistently. His best pitch is an above average slider in the mid 80's that functions as his primary out pitch, while his firm changeup is a third pitch at this point. The 6'3" righty is sturdily built and looks like he can handle 200 innings in the majors, but he struggles to repeat his delivery, which can get stiff, and is prone to regular bouts of below average command. Unless the Phillies can smooth something out in that regard, he likely ends up a reliever, where he may approach triple digits and can lean hard on his slider. The talent is certainly there, though, and it's not out of the question that the Phillies could find a way to keep him in the rotation.

11-343: C Kehden Hettiger, Sierra Canyon HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($250,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #177. Baseball America: #322. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Phillies went way over slot in the eleventh round, giving Kehden Hettiger fifth round money to sign away from an Oregon commitment. Hettiger is physically imposing at a filled-out 6'2", which is befitting of a prospect that is very old for a high school senior, having turned 19 back in May. A switch hitter, he has significant raw power that plays better from the left side, though he's not elevating the ball consistently yet. The swing is long with some moving parts, including a hitch in his load, but he performed well this spring regardless and generally takes good at bats with strong pitch selection. Defensively, he shows an above average arm behind the plate but will need significant work on his glove in order to remain a catcher as he moves up the ladder. In this case, the Phillies are buying into the Los Angeles native's power and feel to hit and hoping the finer aspects of his game follow along, especially given the spotty track record of high school catchers.

Undrafted: OF Keaton Anthony, Iowa {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #326. Prospects Live: #372.
Keaton Anthony has a chance to be one of the better undrafted free agent signings in the class, though it should be noted that he was suspended at the end of the season as part of the investigation into gambling accusations against the Iowa baseball program. Anthony got just one at bat as a freshman, but has absolutely raked over the past two seasons for a combined .373/.477/.688 slash line and 23 home runs in 96 games. Additionally, he dramatically cut his strikeout rate from 16.4% as a sophomore to 11.1% as a junior. Here, the Phillies are purely buying the bat. Built like a slugger at 6'4", he has plus raw power to all fields and has shown the ability to tap it in games for two years now. His swing can get a bit grooved, but he did a great job of making contact in 2023 even against the stronger arms in the Big Ten, though the B1G is admittedly not quite the level of competition of the SEC or ACC. Anthony is a non-defender, mostly playing DH at Iowa and occasionally seeing time on the mound, in fact throwing twenty innings for the Hawkeyes this spring with a 4.95 ERA. The Phillies may try him at first base, left field, or right field, where his arm strength will hopefully make up for his lack of speed.

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