Monday, August 21, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers played the bonus pool game to perhaps a more extreme extent than any other team. They went way below slot for their first three picks at #18, #33, and #54, giving them closer to the slot values for the #25, #43, and and #63 picks, respectively, saving over $1.7 million in the process. Sandwiched around a couple more below slot bonuses in the fourth and fifth rounds, Milwaukee dumped went about a million dollars above slot, each, on Eric Bitonti and Cooper Pratt, giving them closer to the slot values for the #49 and #60 picks, respectively, at #87 and #182. From there, they saved another $600,000+ in rounds 7-10, then took a unique approach to day three with seven high schoolers and a JuCo arm, reeling in all but three of them with another $1.3 million in above slot bonuses. Still with us? Looking back after the dust settled, I'm actually pretty impressed by the class they pulled together. Milwaukee looked for bats early and I really like the bats they did grab, then pivoted to pitchers later in the hopes that some of their high school arms could be sleepers ready to break out with pro instruction. I'm very interested to see what this unique strategy nets them.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-18: 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $4.02 million. Signing bonus: $3.15 million ($871,400 below slot value).
My rank: #22. MLB Pipeline: #25. Baseball America: #23. Prospects Live: #27.
The Brewers started off this draft with a bang, grabbing one of the best power hitters in the country and saving nearly $900,000 in the process. Brock Wilken has been a sensation ever since he stepped foot on campus at Wake Forest, blasting 17 home runs as a true freshman and in all taking just three seasons to set the all time ACC home run record at 71. Between seasons, he was a menace in the Cape Cod League, slashing .271/.400/.471 over 73 career games with wood bats against elite pitching, and in 2023 had his best year yet slashing .345/.506/.807 with 31 home runs and a 58/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. Yes, he was playing in a hitter-friendly home park at a time when offense was up across college baseball, but the point remains – Brock Wilken can hit. He's a hulking, 6'4", 225 pound slugger that could continue to get stronger, showing off plus-plus raw power that plays to all fields even when he doesn't square it up. It's some of the most natural juice in the class, which could help him hit 40 home runs a year in the majors. Wilken is also a very patient hitter that grinds out his at bats, rarely chasing and doing well to spoil pitches he doesn't like. He mashes velocity but if there's one drawback to the offensive profile, it's that he can get into trouble with breaking balls in some of those deeper counts especially with breaking balls because his bat to ball skills are just average. Fortunately, with his power all he needs is to get most, not even all, of his barrel onto the ball and he can send it a long way. Even though strikeout questions do persist, he dropped his strikeout rate from 24.2% as a sophomore to 18.1% as a junior largely on the back of that disciplined approach. In the field, the Tampa-area native shows off a cannon right arm that will help him stick at third base in the short run, though he's a well below average runner with stiffer actions that may end up at first base in the long run. Still, he has plenty of bat to profile there. Wilken has a chance to hit in the middle of the Brewers' order for a long time. He's already off to a hot start in the minors, slashing .301/.458/.479 with a pair of home runs and a 22/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Arizona Complex League and High A Wisconsin.

CBA-33: RHP Josh Knoth, Patchogue-Medford HS [NY] {video}
Slot value: $2.54 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($543,800 below slot value).
My rank: #45. MLB Pipeline: #98. Baseball America: #41. Prospects Live: #47.
After saving nearly $900,000 on Brock Wilken, the Brewers saved another half a million dollars on Josh Knoth by giving him roughly the slot value for the 43rd pick here at #33, signing him away from an Ole Miss commitment in the process. Knoth shot up boards this spring with an exceptional run through his Long Island competition, showing improved stuff, strike throwing, and mechanics. He sits in the low 90's but now touches 98 with his fastball, a pitch which plays up further due to its riding life from a somewhat low release. His breaking balls have really come into their own this spring. The curveball, his more established weapon, has gotten more consistent with nasty two plane bite, while his newer slider has been more effectively incorporated into the arsenal and in all his innate ability to rip through a breaking ball is ahead of most of the class. Knoth's changeup is a distant fourth pitch, so that will be next up for him in his development. The 6'1" righty isn't the most physical, especially not standing next to Brock Wilken, but he has smoothed out his delivery a bit this spring as he has maintained his balance better through his long trunk rotation, leading to more strikes. You can slap an average grade on the command with a chance for better as he continues to get accustomed to his nasty arsenal, and his extreme youth (he didn't turn 18 until a month after the draft) further improves the profile. Knoth has a chance to be a legitimate #2 starter if he can take the next step with his changeup and maintain his command, with a profile led by plenty of velocity and a couple of plus breaking balls.

2-54: 3B Mike Boeve, Nebraska-Omaha {video}
Slot value: $1.55 million. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($296,100 below slot value).
My rank: #65. MLB Pipeline: #81. Baseball America: #61. Prospects Live: #84.
This is a fun profile for the Brewers, and it saves them nearly another $300,000 in the process. Hailing from the small town of Hastings in central Nebraska, he played his college ball at Nebraska-Omaha in the Summit League and has therefore never really been in the spotlight. However, he improved all three seasons at UNO and put together an exceptional 2023, slashing .401/.512/.563 with four home runs and a 9/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games. Simply put, Boeve was on another level compared to his peers. He utilized an exceptionally disciplined approach and elite bat to ball skills to strike out just 4.3% of the time and run a 90% contact rate, rarely chasing in the process and controlling the strike zone as well as anybody in the country. If you want to think of it as a product of average competition in the Summit League, he also slashed .278/.403/.339 in the elite Cape Cod League and ran a respectable 17.3% strikeout rate there too while walking at an excellent 15.8% clip. Boeve is not overly physical at 6'2",  but he has some sneaky power when he turns on the ball and has a tendency to spray hard ground balls and line drives around the field. The swing is certainly more geared for contact, prioritizing the ability to manipulate the barrel to meet the ball all over the zone and adjust to offspeed stuff. If the Brewers decide to change his game up a little, he does hit the ball hard enough to profile for fringe-average power, perhaps 12-15 home runs per season to go with his high on-base percentages. The defensive profile is more ordinary, as he has some arm strength and some range but not enough to shine on the infield. He'd make an adequate second or third baseman, which might stretch his range or arm a little bit, respectively. Boeve has hit the ground running in pro ball, slashing .370/.435/.630 with five home runs and a 14/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 games between the Arizona Complex League and High A Wisconsin.

3-87: SS Eric Bitonti, Aquinas HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $796,200. Signing bonus: $1.75 million ($953,800 above slot value).
My rank: #38. MLB Pipeline: #68. Baseball America: #59. Prospects Live: #57.
After saving on their first three picks, the Brewers began to unload those savings in a big way with Eric Bitonti, who signed for nearly a million dollars above slot value to drop an Oregon commitment. I'm a huge Bitonti fan, and I think he has a chance to be a really special player if things break right. Tall and athletic at 6'4", he has plenty of lean strength for now and projects to pack on plenty more as he develops. He does not get cheated at the plate, taking big, uppercut hacks from the left side that produce plus raw power right now and could get to plus-plus as he gets stronger. Right there, you already have something cooking. The overall polish in the box is a bit behind, as his barrel can get too steep at times when he's swinging for the fences and it's not all that accurate yet, either. On the bright side, he won't turn 18 until the offseason and is therefore one of the youngest players taken in the entire draft, which to me gives additional confidence that he'll make the adjustments he needs to make to acclimate to professional baseball. Defensively, his length and athleticism give him the a nice foundation at shortstop, but he'll likely move to third base as he fills out where his average speed and explosiveness will fit better. His plus arm will keep him on the left side of the infield. Overall, Bitonti is a bit rough around the edges and has not been quite as consistent as some scouts would like to see, but the upside is tremendous as a potential middle of the order threat that sticks on the infield. As expected, it's taking him a minute to acclimate to pro ball, slashing .179/.333/.410 with two home runs and a 15/9 strikeout to walk ratio through a dozen games in the Arizona Complex League.

4-119: RHP Jason Woodward, Florida Gulf Coast {video}
Slot value: $557,900. Signing bonus: $247,500 ($310,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Jason Woodward went unranked on every public board I've seen, so this is certainly a bit of a surprise pick even if he signed for less than half of slot value. Woodward has been a three year contributor at Florida Gulf Coast and was off to a hot start in 2023, dominating Hofstra and UMass Lowell to the tune of a combined eleven shutout innings with fifteen strikeouts. However, he left his third start of the season early against Florida State and eventually had Tommy John surgery, so the Brewers clearly liked what they saw in February. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and I saw one video of a nice breaking ball, but otherwise there is not much information or video out there on his stuff. In the video of one pitch that I saw, he doesn't throw with a ton of effort and should be able to provide at least average command going forward, which is an extra boon with his high velocity. At 6'1", he still has some projection remaining and he's very young for the class, only turning 21 shortly before the draft. The Florida native did get some exposure in the Cape Cod League last summer, and even though his 8.10 ERA was a little ugly, he controlled the zone nicely and put up a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings. It's likely that additional development of his secondaries will do him well to miss barrels against more advanced hitters. Woodward has beaten bone cancer twice, which is amazing for so many more important reasons off the field but also shows his fortitude to overcome adversity in professional baseball settings going forward.

5-155: RHP Ryan Birchard, Niagara County JC [NY] {video}
Slot value: $392,700. Signing bonus: $322,500 ($70,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #227.
The Brewers continued to save money with Ryan Birchard, a late-rising JuCo arm out of Upstate New York with a fun profile. After putting up two dominant seasons for Niagara County JC, where he produced a 1.43 ERA and a 171/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 combined innings, he really opened eyes in the MLB Draft League on the back of nine innings of one run ball, with sixteen strikeouts to just three baserunners over four appearances. Birchard is a power arm that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 98 in short stints with cut and ride. It's a plus pitch that carries the arsenal for now. His curveball shows plenty of bite and looks above average at its best, though he doesn't always get on top of it and it could use another tick or two of power. He's begun using a sweepier slider later in the season and it's quickly looking like another weapon for him, and at this point his changeup is a distant fourth pitch. The 6' righty has a bit of a stiff delivery that features effort and leads to fringy command, so that fact combined with his lack of a quality changeup and the tendency for his velocity to dip later in starts likely points him to the bullpen. He's also very young for a college sophomore and only turned 20 shortly before the draft, giving him plenty of time to clean up the rougher edges of his profile. Previously committed to UConn, he'll instead have a chance to work his way up as a power armed reliever. 

6-182: SS Cooper Pratt, Magnolia Heights HS [MS] {video}
Slot value: $309,900. Signing bonus: $1.35 million ($1.04 million above slot value).
My rank: #47. MLB Pipeline: #45. Baseball America: #63. Prospects Live: #50.
There were rumors that Cooper Pratt was going to be a very tough sign away from a hometown Ole Miss commitment, and after he lasted into the middle of day two, it appeared that was the reality. However, the Brewers used their massive savings to this point on the draft to go over a million dollars above slot value to swoop in and sign him away, ironically giving him even a little bit less than he might have been expected to get in his projected second round range. In doing so, Milwaukee gets a stud here in the sixth round. Pratt is a long bodied, 6'4" shortstop that has earned comps to Gunnar Henderson from area scouts in the Deep South, though he's not quite at that level. He's an extremely selective hitter with one of the more polished approaches in the high school class, which should enable him to transition pretty smoothly from his northern Mississippi high school competition to pro ball. His big frame and long limbs give him great leverage in his right handed swing, which gives him average power for now but promises to provide at least above average power in the future as he fills out. Pratt does have some length in his swing and his pitch selection is ahead of his pure bat to ball skills, so there can be some swing and miss in the zone especially against well spotted breaking balls and high fastballs, the usual culprits. Overall, it's a very well-rounded offensive profile for a kid his age that could produce 20+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages at peak. An average runner, he may not have the range for shortstop but he does have the arm, with the ability to get plenty of carry on his throws even from a shorter arm stroke that enables him to get rid of the ball quickly. If he can retain his first step quickness, those supplemental tools could help him stick rather than move over to third, where he would be an above average defender. Pratt is a little bit old for the class, having turned 19 shortly before this article was published, a break from the Brewers' trend in this class. He's already swinging a hot bat down in the Arizona Complex League, slashing .356/.426/.444 with an 11/5 strikeout to walk ratio through a dozen games.

11-332: RHP Bishop Letson, Floyd Central HS [IN] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $482,600 ($332,600 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #179. Baseball America: #204. Prospects Live: #105.
The Brewers entered day three with plenty of unspent bonus pool money, so they made Bishop Letson the first of five over slot high school signings in the last ten rounds by giving him late fourth round money to sign away from a Purdue commitment. Letson is all about projection at this point. Previously sitting in the upper 80's, he came out with a low 90's fastball at the PBR Super 60 in February (video link) and regularly reached that velocity this spring, though he can dip back below 90 later in starts. The pitch has running life on it and figures to continue to add velocity. He spins a short, tight slider with both sweeping and diving action, and it has gotten more consistent this spring as he's gotten more comfortable with it. There's a changeup, too, which has taken a step forward. While it's not a particularly loud arsenal at present, he's extremely skinny at 6'4" with a ton of room to add good weight and the Brewers are jumping in early. The Louisville-area native has a reasonably smooth delivery and throws plenty of strikes, having performed very well against southern Indiana high school competition this spring and possessing all the building blocks for a #3 or #4 starter.

12-362: LHP Bjorn Johnson, Lincoln HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $420,500 ($270,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #248. Prospects Live: #406.
Milwaukee's next over slot bonus went to Bjorn Johnson, who picked up fifth round money to sign away from an Auburn commitment. He's another guy without loud "now" stuff that the Brewers will hope to bring along as an impact starter. He has an upper 80's fastball that gets up to around 92 at best, with running life from a lower slot. The breaking ball is fringy to this point and needs work, while his changeup gets nice fade and plays well off his fastball due to his arm slot. Johnson's delivery features heavy pelvic rotation that turns his arm into a bit of a whip, sometimes affecting his release point and his command. The Seattle native likely projects as a reliever but given the money Milwaukee gave him, they're likely interested in his potential to start long term.

14-422: RHP Hayden Robinson, Berwick HS [LA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($197,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
One of the more off-the-radar picks out of the high school class this year, Hayden Robinson comes from the small Atchafalaya River town of Berwick in deep southern Louisiana. Originally committed to Nicholls State just up the road in Thibodaux, he instead signed for early sixth round money to join the Brewers' system. Robinson is a smaller kid at a skinny six feet tall, currently sitting in the upper 80's with his fastball and touching 91 with riding action from a low release point. He can really spin a breaking ball, getting nice two-plane bite on his high spin slider, and shows feel for a changeup. Robinson does pitch with some effort, rocking back and forth throughout his delivery, and overall he'll need to find another gear to stick in the rotation. The Brewers are buying his athletic frame and ability to spin the breaking ball, hoping that velocity will come as he gets stronger even if he's not the tallest kid in the world. It's a fairly unique profile that makes for an interesting follow at the very least.

20-602: LHP Justin Chambers, Basha HS [AZ] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $547,500 ($397,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Brewers' final over slot pick was their largest of day three, handing Justin Chambers fourth round money here in the twentieth round to steer away from a Washington State commitment. Like Hayden Robinson, he's way off the radar and did not rank on any major lists, but the Brewers are clearly convicted here. He sits in the upper 80's and tops out around 92, with a fairly low launch and some carry on the pitch. His sweeping slider is ahead of his big, slow curveball, though both are inconsistent and require further refinement. Right now, I'd argue his best pitch is his changeup, with great fading action and plenty of feel to locate it, unlike many other high high schoolers. The 6'2" lefty has a bit of a stiff delivery at times but for the most part pounds the strike zone with authority. If Milwaukee can help him tack on some velocity and develop the offspeed stuff, Chambers looks like a potential #4 starter. The fact that he's extremely young for the class, turning 18 a month after the draft, also helps.

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