Sunday, October 23, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at the SEC East

2022 draftees: 41. Top school: Tennessee (10)
2022 preseason writeup (published 10/17/2021, full SEC)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-25, Yankees: OF Spencer Jones (Vanderbilt)
1-28, Astros: OF Drew Gilbert (Tennessee)
1C-31, Rockies: OF Sterlin Thompson (Florida)
CBA-38, Rockies: OF Jordan Beck (Tennessee)
2-44, Pirates: LHP Hunter Barco (Florida)
2-52, Mets: RHP Blade Tidwell (Tennessee)
CBB-67, Orioles: OF Jud Fabian (Florida)

Last year, I left the SEC as one conference, but now that an already incredibly deep conference is getting even deeper with the help of the transfer portal era, I had to split it into two. The SEC East, which contains seven teams, saw 41 players drafted and only Missouri and powerhouse Florida, ironically enough, failed to have five players hear their name called. Even though they fell to the bottom of the conference with four, all four Gators went in the first ninety picks. Last year, each of the first four players drafted from the SEC East were outfielders, but this is a conference known for its gauntlet of arms and six of the top eight prospects and each of the first three players that missed the list are pitchers. Let's take a look at the top ten prospects from South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Missouri.

1. RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 10/26/2001. Hometown: Evans, GA.
2022: 10-0, 2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 108/13 K/BB in 79 innings.
Last year, Tennessee was the most dominant team in college baseball for most of the season and led the SEC East with ten players drafted, and they return in 2023 with not just the best prospect in the division, but likely the best pitcher in the entire draft class heading into the season. Chase Dollander began his career at Georgia Southern near his hometown in the Augusta area, but transferred to Tennessee as a sophomore and just dominated the SEC on all fronts. At this point, he's pretty much the ideal pitching prospect. Dollander sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for 99 when he wants to, so triple digits will certainly be on the figurative radar for 2023. Beyond its velocity, it's an explosive fastball that carries from a fairly low release point with strong extension, getting on hitters in a hurry. He throws two breaking balls highlighted by a plus slider with late bite, as well as a deeper curveball, and his changeup gives him a fourth average or better pitch. It's truly explosive stuff that would be hard to handle even if hitters were able to get ahead in the count and look for hangers, but that's not all. The 6'3" lefty also has a very athletic, efficient delivery that enables him to pound the strike zone and get ahead in the count in a hurry, and he never walked more than two batters in any of his 14 starts last year while striking out 35.3% of his opponents. With his combination of explosive stuff, athleticism, durability, and command, it's really hard to poke any holes in this profile and he has a chance to go first overall if he continues to throw like he did in 2022.

2. OF Wyatt Langford, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 225 lbs. Born 11/15/2001. Hometown: Trenton, FL.
2022: 26 HR, .355/.447/.719, 7 SB, 44/36 K/BB in 66 games.
Up in the North Florida town of Gainesville, they pull most of their talent from larger hotbeds to the south such as Miami, Tampa, and Orlando, but the outfield was full of local kids like Jud Fabian (Ocala), Sterlin Thompson (Ocala), and Wyatt Langford (Trenton). Fabian and Thompson both went in the top forty picks at various points, but Langford has a chance to beat both the Ocala boys by a good margin. He earned just four at bats as a freshman in 2021, but took the conference by storm in 2022 with an incredible sophomore season in which he led the SEC with 26 home runs and 184 total bases and tied Dylan Crews (LSU) for the conference lead with 73 runs scored. Langford packs a ton of strength into his 6'1" frame, channeling it efficiently into a smooth right handed swing that keeps the barrel in the zone for a long time while still creating loft. An advanced hitter, he uses the whole field effectively with few holes in his swing, and can easily spread out that power by getting his arms extended and taking you deep to right field. He held strong strikeout (14.5%) and walk (11.9%) rates in 2022, though as an outfielder looking to go near the very top of the draft, he'd do well for himself to up the latter a bit to potentially eclipse the former. That's nitpicky given he really doesn't have problems with swing and miss, especially considering his plus power, but that's how it goes in the top ten picks. Defensively, Langford's above average speed gives him a chance to stick in center field, and a team that believes in his glove might give him a long look in those top couple of picks. If he slows down at all though, or if he ends up on a team with a bona fide center fielder already on the roster, he may move to left field. That would put pressure on his bat and may move him back closer to a team picking in the 8-15 range if that's how teams evaluate him, but there is plenty, plenty enough bat to profile in that role. At his peak, Langford has a chance for 30+ home runs per season with solid or better on-base percentages.

3. RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 3/1/2002. Hometown: Thomasville, GA.
2022 (@ Southern Miss): 6-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 140/33 K/BB in 90 innings.
One of the top transfers in the entire country this year, Hurston Waldrep dominated Conference USA last year and finished eighth in the nation with 140 strikeouts for Southern Miss. After teaming with fellow top draft prospect Tanner Hall in the Golden Eagles rotation, he heads across the Gulf to Florida, where he'll be gunning for one of the most coveted Friday night roles in the country. The stuff is absolutely there – Waldrep sits in the mid 90's with his fastball that can touch 99, coming in with explosive ride that makes it a similar pitch velocity and movement-wise to Chase Dollander's fastball. While Dollander has better command and is the better overall prospect, Waldrep's secondaries do make it close. He throws a power slider in the upper 80's with hard sweeping action, and his deep hammer curveball has knee-buckling bite to give hitters another thing to worry about. Additionally, he's been working on a splitter that looks above average at its best, making for arguably the best four pitch mix in the country. The 6'2" righty comes in with an uptempo delivery, taking advantage of his quick twitch athleticism and exploding towards the plate. He repeats it well, though his command is just average for now and will be something to watch against those disciplined SEC lineups. If he can continue to pound the strike zone and miss bats with his devastating stuff, he has a chance to be the first pitcher off the board.

4. OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'1", 160 lbs. Born 12/2/2001. Hometown: Hialeah, FL.
2022: 8 HR, .317/.415/.498, 46 SB, 40/41 K/BB in 62 games.
There might not be a more enjoyable player to watch in all of college baseball than Enrique Bradfield. A potential top three round pick out of high school in 2020, he instead made it to campus at Vanderbilt and has tormented the rest of the SEC since day one. He hit .336/.451/.414 as a freshman and led the nation with 47 stolen bases, then tied for second in the nation in 2022 with 46 stolen bases while getting on base over 40% of the time and bumping his home run total from one to eight. Speed is the name of the game here, as he is an 80 grade runner that further causes problems with elite instincts on the base paths. He's not just the best baserunner in this draft, but the best in quite some time. Not only did he steal 46 bases last year, he didn't even get caught once – no other player in the nation stole more than 18 bases without being caught. But Bradfield is not just a runner. An ultra-skinny kid at 6'1", 160 pounds, he guides the barrel around the zone with precision and makes hard all fields contact with regularity, giving himself more than ample opportunity to utilize that blazing speed in games. A patient hitter as well that will make you work to get him out, he walked more than he struck out both in 2021 and 2022 and nearly did so again on the Cape last summer, where he ran a .389 on-base percentage against the best pitching in the country. He'll never be a power threat with that rail-thin build, but given his feel for the barrel and strong pitch selection, he could turn on a few mistake pitches at the big league level and ambush you for 5-10 home runs per season. The calling card, of course, will always be the speed, and outfielders will have to be careful they don't let routine base hits become doubles or let balls in the gap turn into triples. As you might expect, the elite speed translates into plus defense in center field, giving him a third plus or better tool. As long as he continues to impact the ball in 2023 like he has the past two seasons, he has a very good chance to go in the middle of the first round or better.

5. RHP Patrick Reilly, Vanderbilt.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 210 lbs. Born 10/7/2001. Hometown: Sea Girt, NJ.
2022: 2-3, 4.99 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 69/35 K/BB in 52.1 innings.
Had the 2020 high school season not been cut short by COVID, there's a good chance Patrick Reilly would have never made it to Nashville as he had been carrying plenty of helium into the season. He has tantalized with his arm talent for two years now, but to this point is yet to put it all together and for the second straight season is one of the conference's more prominent breakout candidates. He holds a 4.99 ERA and a 122/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.2 innings through two seasons at Vanderbilt, and after a pair of strong scoreless starts in the Cape Cod League in 2021, he was up and down on the Cape in 2022 with a 4.26 ERA and a 20/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. Those are not particularly inspiring numbers, but this is a premium arm nonetheless. Reilly sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has reached as high as 98, with moderate riding action that isn't quite enough to elicit a ton of chases, but does keep it off barrels. His best secondary pitch is an inconsistent, deep slider that regularly flashes plus, while he also works in a harder cutter and a changeup. This 6'3" righty has a premium pitcher's frame, and throughout his time in Nashville he has gotten much more athletic with his delivery. To this point, his command has not followed suit as he can get too uptempo and struggle to stay under control, but the athleticism does give plenty of hope that he can eventually get more consistent in that regard. With the power arm, durability, athleticism, and deep arsenal, he has a chance to put everything together and pitch his way into the first round this spring.

6. RHP Will Sanders, South Carolina.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'6", 215 lbs. Born 3/30/2002. Hometown: Atlanta, GA.
2022: 7-3, 3.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 91/31 K/BB in 89.1 innings.
South Carolina has another horse ready to lead them to a competitive year in the SEC East. Will Sanders has been an impact arm since the day he reached Columbia, holding a career 3.47 ERA and a 145/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 142.2 innings almost entirely as a starter. Built like a stick of bamboo at 6'6", he offers plenty of projection even as he's steadily tacked on velocity with South Carolina. He presently sits in the low 90's but can bump it up to the mid 90's at will, though the pitch has pretty generic plane and movement. Sanders stands out more for his secondaries, including an above average slider that is still searching for its identity and can flash plus at its best, as well as an above average changeup that represents one of the better cambios in the class. The Atlanta native has a very simple, low effort delivery with a strong lower half that helps him pound the strike zone with above average control and average command while holding his velocity deep into starts. The flip side is that he doesn't create much deception, and when you combine that with his generic fastball, his ceiling may be a bit limited unless he finds a way get more movement. Still, with three above average pitches, durability, projection, and solid command, he is a high probability mid rotation starter.

7. OF Jared Dickey, Tennessee.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 3/1/2002. Hometown: Mount Juliet, TN.
2022: 7 HR, .380/.484/.690, 3 SB, 12/20 K/BB in 40 games.
Jordan Beck, Drew Gilbert, Trey Lipscomb, Jorel Ortega, Luc Lipcius, Evan Russell. If you watch college baseball, you're very familiar with those names that helped make up Tennessee's murderer's row of a lineup last year, but Jared Dickey flew somewhat under the radar in a reserve role. Appearing in 40 of the team's 66 games and only starting 25, he slashed .380/.484/.690 with seven home runs and struck out less than ten percent of the time. He stands out most for his tremendous combination of discipline and barrel accuracy, making him an extremely tough out and helping him get on base nearly half the time. Dickey utilizes a very simple left handed swing, keeping his hands inside the ball and squaring it up with consistency, leading to a high volume of singles, extra base hits, and even home runs in Tennessee's hitter-friendly home park. There will be a lot of eyes on him in 2023 as he gets more consistent at bats and opposing teams are able to focus more on their game plans against him with Beck, Gilbert, and co. out of the way. Continuing to perform now that the secret is out will certainly benefit his stock, but given a 9.5% strikeout rate and a 15.9% walk rate last year, it's hard to imagine there's anything opposing teams can throw him that will fool him. He has the upside of a high on-base hitter that can knock 15-20 home runs per season, certainly a hit over power profile for now unless he changes his approach to chase that power. He has seen some time behind the plate but likely profiles as a corner outfielder, where the pressure will really be on his bat, but he has time to work on his catching and guys like Dalton Rushing and Nathan Hickey have been able to make it work with similar profiles. Proving he can catch while continuing to hit would likely push him into the first round.

8. SS Maui Ahuna, Tennessee.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 170 lbs. Born 3/11/2002. Hometown: Hilo, HI.
2022 (@ Kansas): 8 HR, .396/.479/.634, 13 SB, 49/28 K/BB in 53 games.
Hurston Waldrep isn't the only big name player transferring into the SEC East. While Kansas baseball has struggled for a long time now, Maui Ahuna was one of the best players to come through the program in a long time and hit .357/.447/.532 with nine home runs in 103 games over two seasons. He had a chance to be the first Jayhawk drafted since third rounder Ryan Zeferjahn in 2019 and the first to go in the top two rounds since Curt Shaw way back in 1990, but upon head coach Ritch Price's retirement, he announced his intention to transfer to Tennessee. He had an up and down run with the Collegiate National Team but struggled in a short stint on the Cape, striking out 15 times in 28 plate appearances, so his transition to SEC pitching will be closely watched even if he dominated against strong Big 12 pitching. Ahuna lacks a carrying tool, but he does almost everything well and brings plenty of ceiling. A skinny kid, he comes with a very athletic 6'1" frame with plenty of room to add good weight, and he did already improve from one home run as a freshman to eight as a sophomore. He gets good leverage from the left side with those long arms and a big, powerful swing, so he should get to above average power as he gets stronger. The Hawaii native did strike out in over 20% of his plate appearances last year and had that rough Cape run, so the hit tool is a bit more in question with a bit of a swoopy swing, but he has a very accurate barrel and had no problem performing in the Big 12 last year, where he led the conference in batting average. Ahuna also brings value with his glove, as a potential above average defender at shortstop with a good arm, though he may have to move to third base if he slows down at all. Optimists will give him above average tools across the board while pessimists may see more average tools, leaving a lot of room for split opinions. A team that believes in the tools might consider him as high as the first round, while those that are more off-put by the 53.5% strikeout rate on the Cape and see him as a third baseman rather than a shortstop might want to wait until the second or third round to roll the dice.

9. LHP Magdiel Cotto, Kentucky.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 250 lbs. Born 6/24/2002. Hometown: Fort Mill, SC.
2022: 3-1, 6.06 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 36/19 K/BB in 32.2 innings.
Magdiel Cotto teamed with Will Sanders at South Carolina as a freshman in 2021, but struggled to find innings in that loaded pitching staff and transferred to Kentucky as a sophomore. Serving as a swingman, he struggled with consistency and ended up with forgettable numbers, but he turned heads in the Cape Cod League with a 3.73 ERA and a 33/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings. At his best, Cotto has some of the loudest left handed stuff in the country, and he's learning to harness it now. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and gets up to 97, coming in with that tough lefty angle to boot. His slider shows good sweep and looks above average, and he drops in a solid changeup as well to give him a very strong three pitch mix from the left side. The 6'4", 250 pound left hander creates deception hiding the ball behind that big frame, which also projects durability. Cotto has struggled with command in the past but looked better in that regard on the Cape, trending towards average which would really help him stick in the rotation long term. In 2023, scouts will obviously be looking for much more consistency than he showed over the past two years, hoping his loud stuff plays up against SEC lineups like it is capable of. Additionally, he doesn't turn 21 until shortly before the draft, making him one of the younger college players available.

10. LHP Liam Sullivan, Georgia.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'6", 245 pounds. Born 5/16/2002. Hometown: Sandy Springs, GA.
2022: 4-3, 4.62 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 51/20 K/BB in 48.2 innings.
Over the past few years, Georgia has produced quite a few polished arms such as Emerson Hancock, Ryan Webb, and Jonathan Cannon, but in 2023 they have a pair of power armed lefties that have a chance to break out. I like Jaden Woods a lot, and he just missed this list, but Liam Sullivan has helium and pushed into the back. He sits in the low 90's and has hit 96 with his running fastball, adding a downer curveball and a solid changeup to form a very good three pitch mix. He is yet to put it together in Athens, but he really elevated his stock with a dominant run through the Cape Cod League in which he posted a 2.17 ERA and a 45/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings and looks to ride that success into 2023. Standing 6'6", 245 pounds, he is a big, physical presence on the mound that works downhill and can overpower hitters at his best. The command hasn't quite been there at Georgia, but he pounded the zone on the Cape and continuing to do so could push him into the top two rounds as a mid rotation starter type.

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