2022 draftees: 83. Top school: UC Santa Barbara (6)
2022 preseason writeup (published 11/23/2021)
Top draftees:
1-8, Twins: SS Brooks Lee (Cal Poly)
1-10, Rockies: RHP Gabriel Hughes (Gonzaga)
2-59, Cardinals: LHP Brycen Mautz (San Diego)
2-61, Yankees: RHP Drew Thorpe (Cal Poly)
3-96, Braves: C Drake Baldwin (Missouri State)
3-98, Blue Jays: OF Alan Roden (Creighton)
3-100, Yankees: RHP Trystan Vrieling (Gonzaga)
Moving west of the Mississippi River, our western mid majors couldn't quite match the eastern mid majors' total of 95 draftees last year, but UC Santa Barbara did lead all mid major schools with six draftees and Cal Poly's Brooks Lee and Gonzaga's Gabriel Hughes marked the two highest drafted mid major players last year. Just like back east, even though we're focusing outside the traditional Power Five conferences, there are still some college baseball juggernauts in the smaller conferences like Dallas Baptist, Gonzaga, and UC Santa Barbara, and looking back a little more historically, schools like Rice, Long Beach State, Cal State Fullerton, and San Diego State have had plenty of success.
Similar to the east, the new age of the transfer portal did put a dent in this class. Two-way player Paul Skenes transferred from Air Force to LSU while righty Juaron Watts-Brown transferred from Long Beach State to Oklahoma State, and they would have both been top-three prospects on this list. Luke Keaschall transferred from San Francisco to Arizona State, and he would have also been represented here. So as with the east, while it's not nearly a blanket statement, you are more likely to see late bloomers in these conferences.
This year's iteration includes Jacob Wilson, who for now is the top mid major prospect on either side of the river, headlining a class heavy on hit-over-power types. While you'll only find one player with a plus power grade on this list, and that's arguable, five of the six hitters in the top ten prospects registered a strikeout rate below 15% last year and five of six also batted above .340. The four pitchers on the list, meanwhile, all come with very different profiles. And finally, you'll notice that the top four (and six of the top eight) players drafted from these schools a year ago came from Cal Poly, Gonzaga, or San Diego, and all three of those schools are represented on this top ten list once again for 2023.
1. SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 175 lbs. Born 3/30/2002. Hometown: Thousand Oaks, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .358/.418/.585, 0 SB, 7/25 K/BB in 59 games.
Jack Wilson spent over a decade in the majors, mostly with the Pirates, then went on to coach at Thousand Oaks High School in Southern California. He coached some incredible infield talent there, including the younger Max Muncy now of the A's, Roc Riggio now of Oklahoma State, and his son, Jacob Wilson, the best prospect at any mid major school in the country right now. The elder Wilson actually followed his son to Grand Canyon, where he recently signed on to be an assistant coach. Jacob, meanwhile is well established in Phoenix. He is coming off an impressive sophomore season in which he struck out just seven times in 59 games, followed by a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.278/.381/.389) and with the Collegiate National Team (.362/.462/.455). Wilson, of course, stands out for his pure hitting ability, with elite plate discipline that ranks among the best in the country. Very jittery at the plate and on the field, he twitches his bat and taps his feet in the box while awaiting the pitch, but quiets everything down for consistent execution. He's so advanced in the box that it almost looks like he's seeing pitches in slow motion, laying off the ones he doesn't like and rarely missing the ones he does. This is true against fastballs, breaking balls, you name it, and his .381 on-base percentage and 11.9% strikeout rate in a small Cape sample show that it's not just a product of a smaller conference. At this point, he's very skinny and shows below average power, but he can turn on the ball and send it out to the pull side. Despite standing 6'3", that skinny frame does limit his projection a little bit and he'll likely never have better than average power, but his elite ability to recognize pitches, and therefore mistakes, will help him continue to show that ambush power all the way up the ladder. The ultimate projection here is a .300+ hitter with on-base percentages nearing .400, with perhaps 10-15 home runs per year at peak. Defensively, he's very light on his feet at shortstop with strong feel for the position and enough arm strength to make it work, giving him a chance to stick at the premium position with a little luck. Ultimately, there is a good chance a defender with more range pushes him off the position, in which case he could profile very well at second or third base. For now, this is an easy first round profile with a chance to go in the top ten picks if teams believe in his defense and/or his ability to grow into some power.
2. UT Cole Carrigg, San Diego State.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 5/8/2002. Hometown: Turlock, CA.
2022: 3 HR, .388/.426/.509, 19 SB, 28/12 K/BB in 54 games.
Jacob Wilson played with A's 2021 first round pick Max Muncy at Thousand Oaks High School in the Los Angeles suburbs, while Cole Carrigg was teammates with A's 2020 first round pick Tyler Soderstrom at Turlock High School in the Central Valley. I mentioned that this list contains five hitters that batted over .340 last year, and of those, Carrigg's .388 mark was the best. Not only that, but he kept making consistent, quality contact in the Cape Cod League over the summer where he slashed .325/.388/.411 over a large, 46 game sample. He gets to balls all over the zone with a simple, line drive-oriented approach, keeping his eyes behind the ball and shooting it back where it came from. With excellent feel for the barrel, that leads to consistent execution and plenty of hard hit balls around the field. Similar to Wilson, he's 6'3" but he's very skinny, with perhaps even less physical projection than Wilson. The power is safely below average for now and likely always will be, with the potential for fringe-average power if he tacks on additional muscle. Either way, it's not a power-conscious approach, and he'll likely settle in around ten home runs a year at his peak. Defensively, Carrigg is a true utility man. He played seven different positions in the Cape Cod League alone, appearing everywhere except the bottom two on the defensive spectrum – first base and left field. Yes, he even threw 5.2 innings on the mound, striking out seven while allowing just two baserunners against elite hitters. That's much better than his one appearance at San Diego State this year, where Iowa got him for six runs in the only inning he threw. A very good athlete, Carrigg shows the above average speed and plus arm to profile anywhere on the diamond, whether that means shortstop, center field, or even catcher. For now, his actions around the dirt aren't quite fluid enough to warrant a long term future at shortstop, but specializing in infield defense and dropping the outfield/mound/catcher's mitt could help him get there if his development system commits to it. Behind the plate, the arm strength and athleticism will buy him time for his finer glovework to catch up, and it's a real possibility. Carrigg has four tools that are comfortably above average or better, and being on the younger side for the class helps his profile as well. It's a very interesting one that could develop in any number of directions.
3. 3B Mike Boeve, Omaha.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'3", 200 lbs. Born 5/5/2002. Hometown: Hastings, NE.
2022: 8 HR, .364/.491/.584, 12 SB, 29/39 K/BB in 57 games.
Three names, three hit-over-power profiles in a row. Similar to Jacob Wilson, Mike Boeve's profile is carried by elite plate discipline that saw him walk 14.6% of the time last year while striking out just 10.9% of the time – leading to nearly a .500 on-base percentage. That strong approach carried over to the Cape Cod League, where he slashed .278/.403/.339 over 41 games. He has a similar approach to hitting as Cole Carrigg, never trying to do too much at the plate and instead happily barreling the ball to all fields with a simple left handed swing. Like Wilson and Carrigg, we're talking below average power from another 6'3" frame for Boeve, but there is reason to believe he may grow into some. For now, his approach can get slappy at times and he tends to leak his power over his front foot while he's focused on simply meeting the baseball with the barrel, but when he turns on the ball while maintaining his leverage, he can get into some sneaky power. That power didn't show up on the Cape, where he had just seven extra base hits (all doubles) in 41 games for a paltry .061 ISO, but I do think he has a chance to tap more in pro ball. He's not quite the defender that Wilson or Carrigg are, with an arm that may be stretched at third base and range that might be stretched at second base, so the bat will have to carry the profile. He does have a shot to be a bat-first infielder that can hit 10-15, perhaps even 15-20, home runs per season with high on-base percentages.
4. 3B Kevin Sim, San Diego.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 2/7/2002. Hometown: San Diego, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .292/.387/.527, 8 SB, 39/35 K/BB in 57 games.
On a list full of contact-first bats, Kevin Sim has the best raw power of the group even if his twelve home runs a year ago won't blow you away. In addition to his strong season at San Diego, he hit five more home runs on the Cape over the summer while slashing .239/.349/.424 over 27 games. Sim packs plenty of strength into his 6'2" frame, unleashing a powerful, leveraged right handed swing that helps him produce some high exit velocities. Combine that with a very strong approach at the plate (an ongoing theme on this list), and he's consistently putting himself in position to do damage. Unlike his peers on this list, his pure bat to ball skills do lag behind a bit, and while his disciplined approach helped him run a strong 14.5% strikeout rate at San Diego last year, it ballooned to 27.5% on the Cape against more advanced pitching. With some moving parts in his swing, it remains to be seen whether he can catch up to higher level stuff consistently once in pro ball. Still, it's a well-rounded offensive profile that could produce 20-25 or more home runs per season along with potentially high on-base percentages if he can keep his strikeout rate down. Over at third base, he shows the arm strength and natural feel for the position necessary to profile there, but he's not a quick twitch athlete and his range may force him to first base in the long run. There, the emphasis will be even more on his ability to make consistent contact, though he will likely always run high walk rates.
5. RHP Levi Wells, Texas State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 215 lbs. Born 9/21/2001. Hometown: La Porte, TX.
2022: 8-3, 3.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 86/32 K/BB in 91 innings.
Levi Wells was a highly regarded recruit out of the Houston area, starting his college career at Texas Tech but struggling mightily with his command. He transferred to Texas State as a sophomore, where he found his footing in a big way and held down the Saturday starter role all season long as he cut his walk rate all the way from 25% down to 8.2%. That was followed up by a solid run through the Cape Cod League, here he posted a 3.70 ERA and a 29/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings as a reliever. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a potentially plus curveball with power and depth as well as a less used cutter and changeup. Despite the loud stuff, though, he didn't miss as many bats as you'd like and ran just a 22.2% strikeout rate at Texas State, though that number spiked to 38.2% in short stints on the Cape. His fastball is fairly straight, playing a bit below its above average velocity, and he does need to get a little more consistent with his curveball. Beyond that, it would behoove him to take a step forward with either the cutter or the changeup to give him a third weapon, as well as continuing to refine his command. The control was ahead of the command in 2022 and that was evident against more experienced bats on the Cape, where his walk rate jumped up to 15.8%. There are numerous small holes in the profile, but nothing is back breaking and they also provide numerous opportunities for him to step forward in his development. He doesn't need to patch all of them, but even incremental progress on things like his fastball movement and his changeup could turn him into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. Watch for improvement in any number of small areas in 2023.
6. RHP Kade Morris, Nevada.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 170 lbs. Born 6/21/2002. Hometown: Turlock, CA.
2022: 7-4, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 45/18 K/BB in 57 innings.
A cross-town rival of Cole Carrigg's during high school in Turlock, California, Kade Morris wound up at Nevada and transferred to TCU when Nevada head coach T.J. Bruce took an assistant coaching position there. However, before he could make it to Fort Worth, Morris took a metaphorical U turn and he'll remain in Reno for his draft year. He posted nice numbers a year ago as a swingman pitching in some very offense-friendly environments, then took a step forward with three strong starts in the Cape Cod League over the summer (1.08 ERA, 9/6 K/BB in 16.2 IP). He sits in the low 90's with his fastball as a starter, running it up to 97 in short stints while adding a full arsenal of secondaries. His sweeping, two plane slider is his best secondary right now, while he also shows a more vertical curveball to steal strikes and keeps a changeup in his back pocket. For now, though, he mostly works off that fastball/slider combination. The 6'3" righty is very athletic on the mound, working from a low three quarters slot with an easy delivery, and he's likely to add more velocity as he fills out his projectable frame. Morris also pounds the strike zone and rarely hurts himself with walks, running a very solid 7.6% walk rate at Nevada a year ago and 9.4% on the Cape. But to this point, the flaw in his profile is that he doesn't miss as many bats in the zone as he needs to. The fastball has some modest life but it's nothing special, while the slider alone is not quite potent enough to rack up high numbers of whiffs on its own. If he wants to convince teams he's a starter at the next level, he'll want to significantly bump up the 18.9% strikeout rate he ran at Nevada last year that dropped to 14.1% on the Cape. Still, with his projection, youth, athleticism, arm strength, and deep arsenal, there is plenty to like going forward and he would probably sneak into the top one hundred picks if the draft were today.
7. 2B Charles McAdoo, San Jose State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 3/6/2002. Hometown: Antioch, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .345/.406/.629, 6 SB, 33/19 K/BB in 56 games.
Charles McAdoo didn't play much as a freshman, but he got into the everyday lineup as a sophomore and posted some of the best numbers in the Mountain West. Moving on to the Northwoods League over the summer, he continued to mash to the tune of a .305/.363/.575 line and ten home runs in 43 games. Very aggressive in the box, he doesn't like to waste time in his at bats and will jump on the first pitch he likes, leading to just a 7.3% walk rate at San Jose State and 8.9% in the Northwoods League. Meanwhile, his very strong feel for the barrel means that he was still very effective at keeping his strikeout rates down, rarely missing that pitch he decided to jump on with lots of hard contact around the field. Packing a ton of strength into his 6'2" frame, he works with a compact operation in the box and a leveraged swing that helps him produce above average raw power. His approach is geared towards smoking line drives to all fields, but he's certainly not afraid to turn on the ball and send it deep into the left field seats. Going forward into pro ball, it will be important to keep an eye on that aggressive approach, as his strikeout rate rose from 12.6% at San Jose State to 21.1% in the Northwoods League. Pro pitchers will take advantage of that propensity to chase, so his ability to make adjustments could make or break his profile. It's a profile reliant on the bat, as he's a fringy defender that should be adequate at second base.
8. RHP Owen Wild, Gonzaga.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 230 lbs. Born 7/30/2002. Hometown: Gig Harbor, WA.
2022: 9-1, 3.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 83/24 K/BB in 74.1 innings.
Last year, Gonzaga had a trio of pitchers go in the top three rounds in first rounder Gabriel Hughes (Rockies) and third rounders Trystan Vrieling (Yankees) and William Kempner (Giants). They're not done yet, as Owen Wild looks ready to take that next step and become the next Bulldog ace. Wild made just two appearances as a freshman, but was very effective in a swingman role as a sophomore and continued to impress in the Alaska Summer League, where he posted a 1.82 ERA and a 43/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings. Wild's fastball has ticked up into the low 90's now, reaching the mid 90's at best with flat plane and some ride. He has a slurvy breaking ball that shows well when he keeps it down, and added power could make it an above average or better pitch. Wild also shows an above average changeup with great fade, though he does need to be more consistent with his arm speed when he throws it. The 6'2" righty is physically developed and works from a drop and drive delivery, helping him work from a low center of gravity that makes his pitches play up. He's also very young for the class, not turning 21 until after the draft, which gives him plenty of time to hone his arsenal. All three pitches have the potential to become above average or better, and he shows above average command to boot. I like this one and I think he has a very good shot to become a mid-rotation starter.
9. RHP Bryce Warrecker, Cal Poly.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'8", 240 lbs. Born 9/13/2001. Hometown: Santa Barbara, CA.
2022: 2-0, 5.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 30/5 K/BB in 26.1 innings.
Bryce Warrecker hasn't done much in two years at Cal Poly, holding a 5.61 career ERA and a .298 opponents' batting average over fewer than sixty innings, but few players did as much to elevate their profile in the Cape Cod League as Warrecker did. Over eleven games (seven starts), he put up a 2.03 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 36/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 40 innings, enough to be named the Cape Cod League Outstanding Pitcher. A towering presence at 6'8", he comes from a low three quarters slot that gives hitters a unique look and lays the foundation for a profile that works off of deception. He doesn't work with much velocity, sitting in the low 90's and rarely popping above that range, and brings a couple of quality secondaries. His slider varies between a sweeper and more of a downer pitch depending on what he needs, while his changeup looks above average with late drop. He allowed a lot of loud contact at Cal Poly and ran a modest 22.6% strikeout rate on the Cape even as he kept runs and baserunners off the board, so he'll likely have a low margin for error in pro ball. The good news is that he also pounds the strike zone with above average command, making for a very solid back-end starter profile. There is a lot to like here even if the upside is a bit limited.
10. SS John Peck, Pepperdine.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 165 lbs. Born 7/18/2002. Hometown: Moorpark, CA.
2022: 7 HR, .361/.417/.578, 7 SB, 38/14 K/BB in 40 games.
John Peck is sure to be a polarizing prospect in this class, with a lot of underlying strengths and weaknesses. He raked at Pepperdine this past spring, slashing .361/.417/.578 sandwiched around an April injury that kept him out for close to a month. He moved on to the Cape over the summer, where he struggled immensely to the tune of a .182/.248/.245 slash line and a 31.8% strikeout rate over 45 games including just two hits in his final ten games. Peck has worked to get stronger and, when he's going right, unleashes a barrage of line drives to all fields that helped him hit .361 at Pepperdine last year. He can really smoke the ball, with strong batted ball data that could point to plus power in the tank if he learns how to tap it. For now, he doesn't turn on the ball often enough to do so and with a strikeout rate above 20% at Pepperdine and above 30% on the Cape, he'll also have to improve his pitch selection in tandem with a more power-conscious approach should he choose to pursue it. Defensively, he's very smooth with the glove around the infield and has a better chance to stick at shortstop than anyone else on this list. It's a very interesting profile that could really thrive in the right development system, but there's some boom/bust there as well. Like Owen Wild, he's very young for the class and won't turn 21 until after the draft.
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