RHP Bryce Jarvis, Duke
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DoB: 12/26/1997.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 0.67 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 40/2 K/BB in 27 innings
You'd be hard pressed to find someone who out-pitched Bryce Jarvis in 2020, no matter where you look. He was pretty good over his first two years at Duke (10-3, 3.29 ERA, 161/59 K/BB), but relief questions kept him from becoming an elite draft prospect. He turned down the Yankees in the 37th round in 2019, and now he's looking to take a Brent Rooker route to the first round. Jarvis came out of the gate with significantly better velocity in 2020, and after a fairly ordinary start against Army, his last three starts were the best in the amateur baseball world. From February 21st onward, Jarvis went 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA, a 0.35 WHIP, and a 37/1 strikeout to walk ratio. That's 23 innings, one earned run on seven hits, one walk, and 37 strikeouts, including a perfect game against Cornell and a near-perfect game against a strong Florida State lineup. Simply put, Jarvis pitched as well as humanly possible.
Formerly one who sat in the low 90's, Jarvis now has a fastball consistently in the mid 90's that he holds deep into starts. He throws both a slider and a curveball, which can be just a little bit inconsistent, but the slider regularly flashes plus and both should be out pitches at the next level, especially with pro refinement. He adds a changeup with serious armside fade, and when he locates it right, it's nearly impossible to square up. Combine that with improved command that is now playing above average, and you have a big time starting pitching prospect.
On the surface, it's a clear first round profile, but even after dominating college opponents in 2020, he has two small hitches in his profile. One is his age – already 22, he's the age of a college senior rather than a junior, making him a year and a half older than some other college arms like Reid Detmers, Cole Wilcox, and Slade Cecconi, and just a week shy of five years older than second to fourth round prospect Blaze Jordan. The second hitch is durability as a starter, despite the fact that he threw 75.2 innings as a sophomore (104.1 if you count the Cape Cod League) and completed seven innings in each of his final three starts in 2020. He has a pretty slight build at 6'2", and his delivery is relatively high effort, involving heavy tilt-and-go action off the rubber. Still, any durability concerns need to be projected further, because the results themselves have not given any reason for concern.
If the durability questions prove to be nothing more than speculation, Jarvis could be a #2 or #3 starter at the big league level. You have to assume he'll maintain his recent uptick in stuff over more than those four starts at the start of the season, but you just can't argue with the results. That impact starter projection has moved him firmly into the first round conversation, with a good shot at going in either the late first round or the comp round. Ethan Small, who was also 22 on draft day in 2019 after an exceptional run through the SEC, might be a good draft comparison (although not a good player comp), and he went 27th overall to the Brewers.
Near no-hitter vs Florida State in 2020 (CF view)
Strong start vs Purdue in 2020 (home plate view)
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