The Reds' organization lacks a "wow" top prospect (there are enough questions surrounding Hunter Greene's health and secondary stuff that we should hold off on the "future ace" projections for now), but they do have a nice group of solid could-be's who are only an adjustment or two from becoming legitimate impact players. That group includes pitchers Greene, Tony Santillan, Packy Naughton, and Nick Lodolo, who could join the rotation sooner rather than later, and position players Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Jose Garcia, Michael Siani, Tyler Callihan, and Rece Hinds all have impact potential at the plate. I think that makes it a pretty average system overall, though steps forward from Greene, Siani, Hinds, and/or James Marinan could change that, and the Reds would also like to see upper minors guys like Jose Siri, TJ Friedl, and Victor Gutierrez figure it out and fulfill their potential.
Affiliates: AAA Louisville Bats, AA Chattanooga Lookouts, High A Daytona Tortugas, Class A Dayton Dragons, rookie level Billings Mustangs and Greeneville Reds, complex level AZL and DSL Reds
Catcher
- Tyler Stephenson (2020 Age: 23): Stephenson was the Reds' first round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, and like you'd expect for a high school catcher, he's moved slowly. Reaching AA in 2019, he slashed .285/.372/.410 with six home runs and a 60/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Chattanooga, nice numbers that were pretty consistent with what he did in 2017 and 2018. He's got some power in his 6'4" frame, though to this point he hasn't really tapped it and now after 376 pro games, he probably never will be the 25-30 home run bat he was projected as in high school. Still, with his strength and ability to keep the strikeouts low, he should profile for around 10-20 per season in the majors while posting solid on-base percentages, which combined with his strong defense means he could lock down a starting role. Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali are capable but certainly not enough to block Stephenson, and he should be up at some point in 2020 and potentially the starter not long after.
- Eric Yang (2020 Age: 22): Yang was the Reds' seventh round pick out of UC-Santa Barbara in 2019, and a successful pro debut has him primed to work his way up as a potential backup catcher. Assigned to rookie level Billings, he hit .290/.428/.420 with four home runs and a 44/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games, showing that all of the strengths that the Reds drafted him for would at least play up in the low minors. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he has a very strong understanding of the strike zone and is more than capable of getting hits and posting high on-base percentages. Add in good defense, and he's a prototypical backup catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Hendrik Clementina, Jay Schuyler, Jose Tello
Corner Infield
- Jonathan India (2020 Age: 23): The Reds took India with the fifth overall pick in 2018 on the heels of a huge breakout season for Florida, though his bat has been just a bit lighter than expected in pro ball. In 2019, he slashed .259/.365/.402 with eleven home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 110/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at High A Daytona and AA Chattanooga. Known for both power and on-base ability at Florida, the on-base ability played up, but the power, not so much. There were concerns about India's power in college, as it showed up in spades with metal bats but did not in a small sample with wood bats, and 2019 didn't assuage those concerns that his power was a product of the metal bats. He's a strong defender at third base, taking some pressure off the bat, but it's not clear where he fits in the Cincinnati infield behind Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, and Mike Moustakas. Maybe he can handle shortstop, but that's a bit of a stretch. Either way, he'll want to rediscover that power stroke if he wants to live up to the expectations that come with being the fifth overall pick – if not, he projects for 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which is still good enough to start somewhere due to his good defense.
- Ibandel Isabel (2020 Age: 24-25): In 2019, the Reds deployed an alliterative 6'4" power hitter with strikeout concerns and Aristides Aquino turned out very well. They'll hope the same thing happens in 2020 with Ibandel Isabel, though Isabel's strikeout concerns may be even more pronounced. In 2019, he slashed .243/.307/.518 with 26 home runs and a 153/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AA Chattanooga, giving him three straight seasons with more than 25 home runs. Like India, he doesn't have a clear path to starting with Joey Votto firmly entrenched at his only position, and he definitely falls behind India on the depth chart if Votto gets hurt. Still, there's no denying Isabel's power, and he smokes left handed pitching enough (.330/.385/.588 in 2019) that he could profile well as a platoon or bench bat at the major league level as soon as 2020.
- Tyler Callihan (2020 Age: 19-20): The Reds took Callihan in the third round out of a Jacksonville high school in 2019, then signed him to an over slot deal to keep him from attending Florida. His successful pro debut saw him slash .263/.298/.442 with six home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 50/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games at rookie affiliates Greeneville and Billings. Though he's a stocky 6'1", he stands out more for his contact ability than for his power at this point. Callihan had some of the best feel for the barrel in the 2019 high school class, which should help him avoid some of the bust risk of most other high schoolers, and he could also develop some power if he starts driving the ball in the air more. He does need to get a little more patient, as he makes such easy contact that he doesn't draw a lot of walks. Defensively, it's not clear where he'll end up, as he has decent arm strength but limited range, pointing to a career either at second or third base.
- Rece Hinds (2020 Age: 19): Hinds went in the second round out of the Florida high school ranks in 2019, a round before Callihan, though he went 0-8 at rookie level Greeneville before lingering quad problems kept him out of action for the rest of the season. He's got a ton of raw power from the right side, and he's shown no trouble getting to it even against higher velocities. However, he's struggled against quality breaking stuff, so he might take a bit longer to develop than Callihan. The Reds can look to the Cardinals' success with Nolan Gorman, who had a similar profile coming out of high school, though Hinds probably needs even more work with that hit tool than Gorman did. Defensively, he was drafted as a shortstop but saw action exclusively at third base during his brief pro debut, and he'll need to work on his defensive game just to stay there and keep from ending up at first base. Given the presence of Eugenio Suarez, Jonathan India, and possibly Callihan at third base, first base seems more likely.
- Keep an eye on: Alejo Lopez
Middle Infield
- Alfredo Rodriguez (2020 Age: 25-26): The Reds signed Rodriguez out of Cuba for $7 million in 2016 because of his excellent defense at shortstop. All he needs to do is hit a little bit, but as I wrote last year, over his first couple of pro seasons he "didn't hit a lick" and in 2018 he slashed just .210/.273/.312. However, that started to change in 2019, as he slashed .267/.314/.327 with a home run, 16 stolen bases, and a 75/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, though he was much better at the lower level (.286/.325/.347 in 104 games) than the higher level (.169/.261/.221 in 23 games). That's not a stat line that screams future regular, as he still shows very little power except a little bit to the gaps, but at least he got on base at a decent clip against advanced pitching in AA. The calling card here is the glove, and if he can continue to tweak his approach and figure out how to get some singles, doubles, and walks at the major league level, he should be a nice utility infielder/defensive replacement in the near future.
- Jose Garcia (2020 Age: 22): The Reds plucked Garcia out of Cuba for $5 million in 2017 not long after they signed Rodriguez for similar money out of the same hometown of Havana. After slashing .245/.290/.344 in 2018, he took a step forward in 2019 by slashing .280/.343/.436 with eight home runs, 15 stolen bases, and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games at High A Daytona Beach. He makes easy, consistent contact from the right side, and his ability to barrel the ball up helped him knock 37 doubles in addition to his eight home runs. He's an aggressive hitter that tends to put the ball in play early in the count, and while that hasn't hurt him to this point, it does limit his walk totals. He's a sound defensive shortstop who will stick there, and if all goes right and he keeps hitting the way he did in 2019, he could hit 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and a few stolen bases, which should be good enough to start.
- Ivan Johnson (2020 Age: 21): Johnson looked overmatched as a freshman at Georgia, but he found his footing after transferring to Chipola Junior College for his sophomore season and hit his way to a fourth round selection in 2019. After being drafted, he hit .255/.327/.415 with six home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 46/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games at rookie level Greeneville. He's a switch hitter that hits for a lot of impact with his explosive swing, and his plate discipline is trending in the right direction. He's not anything special defensively and probably fits best at second base, but with the upside in his bat, he may be able to start there as someone who could produce 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages.
- Keep an eye on: Yan Contreras, Jose Acosta
Outfield
- Jose Siri (2020 Age: 24-25): Siri had a big breakout year with Class A in 2017 (24 HR, 46 SB, .293/.341/.530), though he hasn't been quite as flashy since reaching the upper minors. In 2019, he slashed .237/.300/.357 with 11 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 165/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, and a 3-3 performance in his final game brought his AAA batting average up from .162 to .186. Siri is the most tooled up player in the system, and while his strengths are very clear, so are his weaknesses. He has a lot of raw pop in his 6'2" frame and explosive swing, but that comes with poor plate discipline that has kept him from getting to it consistently in the upper minors and which has suppressed his on-base percentages. At the same time, he has exceptional speed that has allowed him to swipe 20 or more bases in four straight seasons, as well as a plus arm in the outfield, though his instincts are just decent enough that he's more of a "very good" defender than an elite one. Set to turn 25 in July, he's not the youngest prospect any more, but it still remains to be seen what he turns into at the big league level, all depending on how he manages the strike zone against big league pitching.
- Stuart Fairchild (2020 Age: 24): Fairchild was a second round pick out of Wake Forest in 2017, and he's put up solid if unspectacular numbers as he's risen through the minors. In 2019, he slashed .264/.352/.441 with 12 home runs and an 83/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at High A Daytona Beach and AA Chattanooga, and he actually hit better at the higher level (.275/.380/.444) than at the lower level (.258/.335/.440). 2019 was a nice step forward for a few reasons, one being that he cut his strikeout rate when he got to AA and another being that he started to tap into a little bit of power – there's not a ton in his skinny, 6' frame, but by finding the barrel more in 2019, he naturally ran into more power. At this point, he looks like a fringe-starter who could hit around ten home runs per season with high on-base percentages and above average defense in the outfield, but he's trending in the right direction and he might not be too far off from reaching that projection.
- TJ Friedl (2020 Age: 24-25): Friedl went undrafted out of Nevada in 2016, but that was only because nobody, including himself, knew he was eligible, but once everyone figured it out, he signed for $735,000 (third round money) as a free agent. He hit really well in his first couple of pro seasons, but the bat has stalled so far in the upper minors and 2019 was a tough year. Bothered by ankle problems, he slashed just .235/.347/.385 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 50/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at AA Chattanooga before he was finally shut down for the season in July, and while that certainly dents his stock, I wouldn't give up on him just yet. He still showed a great understanding of the strike zone while keeping his strikeouts down and his walks up against advanced pitching, and while he didn't hit for a ton of impact in 2019, he's previously shown great feel for the barrel that gives him plenty of gap power if not too much in the way of home run power. He also has a lot of speed that plays well on the bases and in the outfield, giving him a good chance to end up as a valuable fourth outfielder if he can bounce back with a healthy 2020.
- Jameson Hannah (2020 Age: 22-23): The A's drafted Hannah in the second round out of Dallas Baptist in 2018, then shipped him to the Reds for Tanner Roark in 2019. He slashed .274/.339/.369 with two home runs and a 104/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between the two High A affiliates, though he did slump a bit at the end of the season. Hannah is a shorter guy at 5'9", but he has a quick swing and good feel for the barrel from the left side that should enable him to post high on-base percentages even if he lacks much in the way of power. He's also one of the faster runners in his new system, though he's still learning to deploy his speed effectively on the bases and in the outfield. He was young for a college draftee in 2018 and doesn't turn 23 until August, so while he has some work to do, he has a bit more time to figure it out as well. I don't think he'll hit enough to be a future leadoff man, but he has a high floor and should end up as a fourth outfielder.
- Andy Sugilio (2020 Age: 23): Sugilio has never been a big name, and it certainly wasn't after he slashed .221/.287/.288 as a 19 year old in the complex level Arizona League in 2016. However, he hit .345/.390/.472 in rookie ball in 2017 and .278/.308/.380 in Class A in 2018, then continued hitting in 2019 with a .294/.331/.360 slash line, three home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 92/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A Daytona. He's moved very slowly through the minors, but he may finally be putting the pieces together with a quick, strong swing from the left side, natural power in his 6'2" frame, and enough speed to make him a weapon on the bases. He makes consistent hard contact and avoids strikeouts, but too often, he's been pounding the ball into the ground. If anybody could break out by joining the Fly Ball Revolution, it's Sugilio, and I'd be interested to see if he could match his career home run total (12 in 419 games) with a more fly ball-oriented approach in 2020.
- Michael Siani (2020 Age: 20-21): Siani was the Reds' fourth round pick out of a Philadelphia high school in 2018, though he signed for borderline first round money at $2 million then hit well in his pro debut (.288/.351/.386). In 2019, he slashed .253/.333/.339 with six home runs, 45 stolen bases, and a 109/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Dayton, his speed showing up nicely but his power, not so much. Siani was supposed to be a bit of a project on offense, so a .333 on-base percentage in full season ball actually isn't too shabby for a 19-20 year old, and he did keep his strikeout rate reasonably low. The next step for him will be adding some power, as he has some natural pop in his 6'1" frame but didn't quite tap it as much as he may have liked to in the colder Midwest League environment. He's known for his speed and defense, as he'll definitely stick in center field as one of the best defenders in the system, which of course buys the bat plenty of time. The speed certainly showed up, too, as he was one of just ten minor leaguers to steal 45 bases this year. After Siri, he likely has the highest ceiling of any outfielder in this system as a true center fielder who can post high on-base percentages and 10-15 home runs per season, but he also has a lot of work to do to get there.
- Keep an eye on: Narciso Crook, Michael Beltre, Lorenzo Cedrola, Mariel Bautista, Quin Cotton, Wendell Marrero
Starting Pitching
- Tony Santillan (2020 Age: 23): The Reds drafted Santillan in the second round out of high school in Seguin, Texas in 2015, and he's risen slowly but steadily up the minor league ladder. After a dominant 2018 (3.08 ERA, 134/38 K/BB), he took a bit of a step back in 2019 by posting a 4.84 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and a 92/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings at AA Chattanooga, and he missed the last month of the season with triceps problems. He's got big league stuff, starting with a mid 90's fastball and also including a good slider and changeup, but after making big gains with his command in 2018, he regressed again in 2019. The command was shaky enough this year that he got hit much more than he should have given his stuff, and he'll have to get back to where he was last year if he wants to reach his ceiling as a #2 or #3 starter. That's really it on Santillan – put 2019 behind him, hit his spots like he did in 2018, and go from there.
- Vladimir Gutierrez (2020 Age: 24): The Reds signed three players from Havana in 2016 and 2017 for a combined $16.75 million, and Gutierrez, the cheapest of the three at $4.75 million, beat both Alfredo Rodriguez ($7 million) and Jose Garcia ($5 million) to AAA. After a strong 2018 in AA (4.35 ERA, 145/38 K/BB), he did struggle a bit with that assignment to AAA, posting a 6.04 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 117/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 137 innings for Louisville, though he did finish strong with a 2.83 ERA and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over his final five starts. He has a deep plunge in the back of his delivery, which helps him get good angle on all three of his pitches. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and he adds a nice two-plane curveball and a diving changeup, all of which benefit from that aforementioned angle. His control is solid, but he fell victim to the home run frequently in 2019 as he wasn't able to avoid barrels inside the zone as often as he would have liked. Gutierrez has big league stuff, so the key will be getting more consistent with his curveball and hitting his spots better on the corners. If he can do that, he'll be a #3 or a #4 starter, but if he can't, he's probably a reliever.
- Packy Naughton (2020 Age: 24): I watched Naughton extensively in college, and he's a really interesting case. At Virginia Tech, he flashed good stuff but struggled to command it, keep his delivery intact, and stay out of his own head, and he finished with a 6.15 ERA over three seasons. The Reds still drafted him in the ninth round in 2017, and the results were immediate. His stuff hasn't really taken a step forward and plays closer to average now that he's out of the ACC and into pro ball, but he's learned to repeat his delivery much more consistently and his command is now a tick above average. The adjustments enabled him to put up excellent numbers in 2019, including a 3.32 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 131/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157 innings at High A Daytona and AA Chattanooga. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, but they all play up because of his funky delivery that hitters just have a hard time picking up. That's probably a #4 starter profile in the majors, but the Reds have to be extremely happy with his development to this point and he still has a fallback option as a funky left handed reliever, where he should be very effective.
- Hunter Greene (2020 Age: 20-21): Sometimes injuries can be more disappointing than anything else, and while it's not surprising that a teenager who threw 102 would go down with Tommy John surgery, I think we all felt a little gut punch when it was announced Greene had blown out his elbow and would have to miss the 2019 season. Fortunately, he's still really young and doesn't turn 21 until August, so the 2017 second overall pick still has plenty of time to develop. The Reds will therefore take it slow with him in 2020 as he builds back his strength before hopefully cutting him loose in 2021. It's very clear where all the hype lies with Greene. His fastball sits consistently in the upper 90's with ease, and I saw him hit 102 in person – let me tell you, if you think you've ever seen someone throw a ball fast, you haven't. 102 is just different, plain and simple. Now he still had a 4.48 ERA in 2018 because the rest of his game needs work. His slider looks like a plus pitch at times, but he doesn't always get the shape on it that he wants, and his changeup is more or less average. He's an exceptional athlete with an easy delivery, but his command plays closer to average and he still needs to hit his spots more consistently. Greene has a lot of work to do, and with that velocity and his work ethic, anything is possible, but I'd project him more as a mid-rotation starter than as an ace at this point.
- Mac Sceroler (2020 Age: 25): Sceroler was the Reds' fifth round pick out of Southeastern Louisiana in 2017, then after an up and down first full season in 2018 (4.97 ERA, 81/30 K/BB), he broke out in 2019 to put himself on the map. This year, he had a 3.69 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 127/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at High A Daytona, a step forward in his command being the major difference. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball and a changeup, a fringy group of pitches as a whole but one that plays up nicely now that he's been controlling the zone better. He turns 25 at the start of the season, so he's not the youngest prospect in the system, but he has back of the rotation potential.
- Nick Lodolo (2020 Age: 22): Drafted 41st overall by the Pirates in 2016, Lodolo instead went to TCU and after two good-not-great seasons, he put it together in his junior year and found himself drafted seventh overall by the Reds as the first pitcher taken off the board. He didn't pitch much after a long college season, but still posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, 30 strikeouts in 18.1 innings without walking a single batter (though he did hit one) at rookie level Billings and Class A Dayton. He's a 6'6" lefty that cleaned up his mechanics in 2019, and that enabled him to throw more strikes and get more out of his stuff. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it plays up due to the angle he gets on it, and he's moved away from an average curveball towards a sharper slider, which he's still figuring out. He also adds a good changeup, and together that's the upside of a #2 or #3 starter if he can sharpen that slider further. With his good command, he should move relatively quickly through the minors.
- Lyon Richardson (2020 Age: 20): The Reds have a couple of power high school arms down in their low minors, and while Jacob Heatherly and James Marinan have gotten off to slow starts, Richardson was solid in his first full season. The Reds drafted him in the second round out of the Florida high school ranks in 2018, and after getting knocked around in his pro debut (7.14 ERA, 24/16 K/BB), he posted a 4.15 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 106/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.2 innings at Class A Dayton in 2019. His fastball is his best weapon, sitting in the low to mid 90's, and his slider has improved in pro ball to give him a second good pitch. He's still working on getting more consistent with his curve and his changeup, but he also made progress with his command in 2019, which is now closer to average. There's a lot more work to be done here, but he's a better pitcher than he was a year ago, and the Reds hope he'll maintain that trajectory in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Tejay Antone, Jared Solomon, Ryan Lillie, James Marinan, Graham Ashcraft, Jacob Heatherly
Relief Pitching
- Joel Kuhnel (2020 Age: 25): If we're talking about Kuhnel, we're talking about velocity. The Reds' eleventh round pick out of UT-Arlington in 2016 sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, both of which can creep above 90. Additionally, the 6'5" righty can command everything very well, which is not common for pitchers who throw that hard. In 2019, he had a 2.18 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 50/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, then put up a 4.66 ERA and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 9.2 big league innings. As it stands, Kuhnel is probably more of a middle reliever than a late inning type, but just a little bit of refinement to either of his secondary pitches, which stand out more for their velocity than for their movement, could get him there.
- Jose De Leon (2020 Age: 27-28): The Dodgers drafted De Leon in the 24th round out of Southern University way back in 2013, but he quickly established himself as a big time arm and reached the majors in 2016. However, he's battled numerous injuries and has been traded twice since then, first to the Rays for Logan Forsythe in 2017 then, after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 season, to the Reds for cash or a player to be named later in 2019. This past year in the Rays organization, he had a 3.54 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between High A and AAA, and over three years in the majors, he has a 6.08 ERA and a 24/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.2 innings. He's still a starter at this point, he's probably better off in the bullpen given the competition at the top of the Reds' system as well as his long history of arm troubles. His velocity has fluctuated but he can sit in the low to mid 90's at best, and he adds a slider and a true weapon of a changeup. His command has been understandably inconsistent, but a move to the bullpen could enable him to focus on his fastball/changeup combination and hopefully take some of the strain off his arm. It would also enable him to contribute immediately in 2020.
- Ryan Hendrix (2020 Age: 25): The Reds picked Hendrix in the fifth round of the 2016 draft out of Texas A&M, and he's pitched really well with a 2.55 ERA so far in the minors. In 2019, he had a 1.85 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 31/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.1 innings between AA Chattanooga and complex level rehab work, though he missed a big chunk of the season with elbow problems. Fortunately, he made a healthy return in July, and he was back to throwing mid 90's fastballs and power curveballs that could carve through minor league bats. That breaking ball is sharper than Kuhnel's, but he doesn't have the same kind of command, as his has been much spottier. Health is obviously the first big thing, but if he can prove that, he'll also need to throw more consistent strikes if he wants to be more than a middle reliever. He does have the stuff to profile in the late innings.
- Keep an eye on: Michael Byrne, Dauri Moreta, Diomar Lopez, Randy Wynne, Matt Pidich
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