Friday, September 20, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Washington Nationals

Full list of draftees

The Nationals surprised many by going under slot on Seaver King, who saved them over $800,000 with the first pick and laid the groundwork for the rest of their class, which included an extra CBA pick at #39 acquired in the Hunter Harvey trade. While King had the largest bonus and will be the biggest name from the class, perhaps the biggest gamble will be second rounder Luke Dickerson who signed for one of the largest over slot bonuses in the entire class from any team. With a system chock full of outfield depth, the Nationals focused on catchers and infielders early and drafted just two outfielders in the entire class – eighth rounder Sam Petersen and eighteenth rounder Teo Banks. I'm lukewarm on this class overall, which includes some very high variance players like Caleb Lomavita, Dickerson, and Sir Jamison Jones, as well as some lower ceiling, "safe bet" types like King, Kevin Bazzell, and Jackson Kent.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-10: SS Seaver King, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $5.95 million. Signing bonus: $5.15 million ($803,800 below slot value).
My rank: #16. MLB Pipeline: #17. Baseball America: #17.
With names like Braden Montgomery, Bryce Rainer, and Trey Yesavage still on the board, this pick surprised some in the industry but it made more sense as the Nationals saved over $800,000, signing him for just over the slot value of the #14 pick. Seaver King, besides having one of the best baseball names in the draft, brings a really interesting profile to the table. He began his career at Division II Wingate, then transferred to Wake Forest after hitting .399 over two seasons. Any concerns about his ability to hit ACC pitching were assuaged when he smashed his way to a .424/.479/.524 line in sixteen games in the Cape Cod League, success which carried over to a strong senior season with the Demon Deacons. King is listed at 6', 195 pounds and doesn't have much projection on his slender frame, but he packs a lot of punch. The Athens, Georgia native is an extremely aggressive hitter that makes plenty of contact regardless, leading to tons of balls in play with low strikeout and walk rates. He covers the whole plate effectively and, as mentioned, had zero issues with the large jump in competition from Division II to the Cape/ACC, so his combination of pitch recognition and bat to ball give him an above average hit tool. Meanwhile, he doesn't look it but there is very significant raw power in the tank. King is mostly a line drive hitter but the ball jumps off his bat like few others in the class, showing plus raw power that plays closer to average or above average in games due to the approach. Key for him going forward will be becoming just a bit more selective at the plate, better finding pitches he can lift and drive while also adding a few more walks onto the stat line. On the other side of the ball, he's a plus runner who has seen playing time all over the diamond. The hope is that he can stick at shortstop, where he has enough arm strength and range to make it work if he can refine his glovework, but he could end up at second base, third base, or center field. Wherever he does play, he should be a net-positive on defense in addition to potentially becoming a 20+ home run hitter with high batting averages and plenty of stolen bases. He had no trouble with the jump to minor league pitching, where he hit .295/.367/.385 with ten stolen bases and a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio over twenty games for Low A Fredericksburg, but the power didn't show up in the small sample.

CBA-39: C Caleb Lomavita, California {video}
Slot value: $2.4 million. Signing bonus: $2.33 million ($70,000 below slot value).
My rank: #28. MLB Pipeline: #33. Baseball America: #18.
Despite being a college bat, historically the safest demographic, Caleb Lomavita was one of the most polarizing prospects in the first round due to his unconventional profile. He has been one of the better catchers in college baseball over the past couple seasons and at times in 2024 was projected as high as the middle of the first round. He surprisingly slid to the Nationals' CBA pick, where I was sure he was going to require an above-slot bonus, but he wound up signing slightly below slot value which makes this an outstanding pick no matter where you stand on him. In fact, given the signing bonus, I'd say this was my favorite pick of the draft for the Nationals. Lomavita, like Seaver King, is an extremely aggressive hitter that swings at anything and everything, in fact running even higher chase rates and even lower walk rates than his first round counterpart. Also similar to King, he has strong bat to ball ability and limits his strikeouts despite the high chase rate, though he did swing and miss more in 2024 and his strikeout rate jumped to a still-respectable 16.7% after coming in at a strong 11.1% a year ago. Despite this, he has a long history of hitting advanced pitching and slashed .314/.357/.442 over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. The barrel chested, 5'11", 200 pound Honolulu native can really drive the ball too, with above average raw power that he taps consistently in games with his leveraged right handed swing that gets long through the zone and puts nice loft on the ball. Similar to King, if he can get more selective at the plate (and he has a longer way to go in that regard), he could become an all around force at the plate. The upside here is 20-25 home runs per season with decent batting averages. Lomavita is also extremely athletic for a catcher, with solid run times and impressive fluidity and flexibility behind the plate. His glovework itself is a bit raw, but given his physical talent he should be a solid defensive catcher once he cleans that up. The athleticism elevates his ceiling on both sides of the ball and if you can get the approach right, I think he could be a very special hitter. But the approach does need a lot of work. Lomavita hit .213/.310/.246 with a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over seventeen games in a brief stint at Low A Fredericksburg.

2-44: SS Luke Dickerson, Morris Knolls HS [NJ] {video}
Slot value: $2.12 million. Signing bonus: $3.8 million ($1.68 million above slot value).
My rank: #47. MLB Pipeline: #49. Baseball America: #56.
This was the pick that shaped the Nationals' draft strategy. Scouts had to wait for the North Jersey weather to warm up, but once it did, Luke Dickerson had one of the most impressive springs of any high schooler in the country. That led to a meteoric rise up draft boards, moving from the middle of day two up into day one territory and eventually into second round projections as the draft rolled around, but the Nationals saw him as a clear-cut first round talent and paid him as such, paying him roughly the slot value of the #22 pick to steer him away from a UVA commitment. Dickerson had a senior year to remember, winning both a hockey and a baseball state championship three months apart and once scoring five (!) goals in one game on the ice. He is a powderkeg athlete that has packed a ton of muscle into his 5'11" frame over the past year without sacrificing any quickness, making for a superb package to build from. Dickerson has a quick right handed swing that naturally produces above average power he tapped much more often in games in 2024, in fact tying Mike Trout's New Jersey high school record with eighteen home runs as a senior. With little wasted movement and an accurate barrel, he was a monster that North Jersey pitching could not get out. However, he's unproven against more advanced pitching and if there's one hole in his profile, it's that we don't know how he'll handle the jump in competition. Dickerson is also a plus runner with excellent glovework on the infield, though his fringy arm will move off shortstop to second base. With his quickness, athleticism, and polish, he could become an above average or even plus defender at the keystone. There's a ton of upside here, and the Nationals spent the rest of the draft scrapping together bonus pool space to pay for it.

3-79: C Kevin Bazzell, Texas Tech {video}
Slot value: $980,300. Signing bonus: $980,300.
My rank: #90. MLB Pipeline: #55. Baseball America: #68.
I was a bit lower on Kevin Bazzell than much of the industry, but he's still a very nice addition alongside Caleb Lomavita to a shallow depth chart behind the plate in the Nationals system. Bazzell initially enrolled at Dallas Baptist, but transferred out after a semester and didn't play his freshman spring at Texas Tech. He's been one of the toughest outs in the Big 12 since then, playing himself into the second tier of college catchers for the 2024 draft. The Dallas-area native is an elite contact hitter, putting up the highest contact rate of any of the 145 college hitters on the Baseball America 500 this year. I'll repeat that – he made contact with 89.5% of the pitches he swung at, more than any draft-eligible college bat with significant interest. This is a man who never, ever whiffs, especially in the zone, with a simple, effortless right handed swing that just flicks the barrel at the ball and uses his natural strength to send it deep. The power isn't quite as impressive, with fringe-average pop that amounted to just six home runs in 2024. If he wants to earn regular playing time in the bigs, he'll have to find a way to dramatically increase his power output as he switches from metal to wood bats, something I'm not sold he'll do especially in a Nationals system that does not develop hitters well. If he can, though, there's solid upside as an everyday catcher that can knock 10-15 home runs per season with high averages, perhaps something similar to a taller Paul Lo Duca. Bazzell only began catching in high school and is a bit raw behind the plate, but it's nothing egregious and his athleticism and arm strength should hold down the fort until he polishes up the glovework a little bit. The bat certainly profiles better behind the plate than elsewhere, such as in a corner outfield spot, and he should be able to make that work. He hit .273/.433/.386 with a 10/11 strikeout to walk ratio over fourteen games at Low A Fredericksburg, showing off the plus hit tool as well as the questionable power.

4-108: LHP Jackson Kent, Arizona {video}
Slot value: $676,000. Signing bonus: $625,000 ($51,000 below slot value).
My rank: #178. MLB Pipeline: #136. Baseball America: #138.
Most years, the Nationals draft a pitchability college arm early on, especially a lefty like Jake Bennett (2022) and Dustin Saenz (2021). This year, it was Jackson Kent and he'll fit right into a system that loves to develop these types. Kent redshirted his freshman season at Arizona, served as a swingman as a sophomore, then had his best year yet as the Wildcats' ace in 2024. The stuff is pretty average all around. His fastball sits in the low 90's and tops out around 95 with nice riding life, making it a solid average pitch. From there, Kent has a full arsenal of secondaries including a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. The slider is the best breaker with average life and velocity, while his curveball is a bit loopier and serves as a get me over type. The cutter provides a nice alternate look from his fastball, while his changeup is his lone above average pitch with late, heavy fade. He relies heavily on that changeup and it should continue to help him miss bats and work through lineups in pro ball while the Nationals look to bring the rest of his arsenal along. The 6'3" lefty gets down the mound well with an athletic, repeatable delivery that could project a tick more of velocity, pounding the strike zone with above average command to help all of his pitches play up. Kent also has a moderately low release height with solid extension, adding a little extra hop to his pitches. With a durable frame, good command, and a deep arsenal with an out pitch, Kent projects as a solid #4 or #5 starter who can eat innings and pitch in the big leagues a long time.

5-141: SS Randal Diaz, Indiana State {video}
Slot value: $490,500. Signing bonus: $420,000 ($70,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Randal Diaz is a nice find for the Nationals if a bit off the radar. He has performed for three seasons at Indiana State and had his best year in 2024, when he was named First Team All-MVC and finished the season on a 32 game hitting streak. Diaz has a strong, compact right handed swing that produces solid raw power without selling out. That simple swing helps him make plenty of contact and produce consistently, keeping his strikeout rates down and his on-base percentages up. While he didn't face the strongest competition in the Missouri Valley Conference, he impressed at the Lexington Regional where he went 7-18 (.389 AVG) with a pair of home runs against Kentucky, Illinois, and Western Michigan. ISU's everyday shortstop in 2024, he was drafted as such and has plenty of arm strength to stick on the left side of the infield. He may be forced to move to third base if he slows down at all, where his arm will play and his more methodical actions will fit well. The Puerto Rican has the chance to be a solid-all around contributor with average to above average tools across the board if it breaks right, showing consistent on-base ability, some power, and a net-positive glove.

6-170: RHP Davian Garcia, Florida Gulf Coast {video}
Slot value: $372,300. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($52,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Davian Garcia brings sneaky upside to the Nationals, and he's also the team's lone day two over slot signing. Garcia has been all around the state of Florida, having begun his career at Division II Flagler in 2022, transferring to Pasco Hernando JC in 2023, then finally spending 2024 at Florida Gulf Coast where he transitioned nicely to Division I competition. The Tampa native brings tremendous arm strength with a fastball that sits in the mid 90's and touches 98 at peak, coming in with lots of riding life to make it explode on hitters. The fastball is his best pitch right now, but he does have a solid slider in the mid 80's that could sharpen up into a real out pitch. Garcia has long arm action that to less experienced hitters could make the ball tough to pick up, though more advanced hitters might get the opposite effect and get a better look at his grip. He has pounded the zone effectively at FGCU, which can be a concern with guys with his arm action, and has stayed healthy thus far, another potential concern. Garcia will have to continue to hold both his command and his health together with the larger workload in pro ball, and the Nationals will look to help him refine his secondary stuff as well. The arm strength and plus fastball give him plenty to work off, and he's also young for the class and won't turn 21 until October. Garcia has a very good shot to be the best pitcher in this Nationals draft class when it's all said and done.

7-200: RHP Robert Cranz, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $290,300. Signing bonus: $190,000 ($100,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Robert Cranz marks the Nationals first significant under slot bonus since the first round, and he figures to be the quick moving relief type we know they like. Cranz spent two seasons at Wichita State before transferring to Oklahoma State in 2024, where he finished with a 1.26 ERA and allowed just 25 baserunners in 28.2 innings. The fastball is not overwhelming by college reliever standards, sitting in the low 90's and topping out in the mid 90's, but it plays up with huge riding action that creates a lot of empty swings. He can cut it when he needs to as well, or turn it over into a true slider with late bite. Cranz stands out more for his ability to command and execute his pitches, working up, down, in, and out effectively when he needs to. His feel for his slider is especially notable and will serve him well in pro ball as he works it below the zone or out on the edges to drive chases in short stints. He's the kind of pitcher than can effectively pitch forwards or backwards. The 6'3" righty is also plenty physical and if it weren't for his complete lack of track record going more than a couple innings at a time, you'd almost think he could start. That seems unlikely though, and instead he figures to move quickly through the minors as a strike throwing, high pitchability type with two above average pitches. He already made quick work of Low A hitters, tossing six shutout innings over four appearances, allowing just three baserunners while striking out seven for Fredericksburg.

8-230: OF Sam Petersen, Iowa {video}
Slot value: $230,900. Signing bonus: $230,900.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #205. Baseball America: #184.
There are some similarities here to Nationals 2021 seventh rounder and current center fielder Jacob Young, albeit with a bit more power and a bit less defense. He's a three year starter at Iowa that was off to a hot start in 2024 before shin splints cut his season short in April, but the Nationals saw plenty to make him their full slot eighth round pick. He has a tight right handed swing that produces fringe-average raw power, enough to keep pitchers honest and slug .579 over the past two seasons at Iowa. There's a bit more swing and miss than you'd like in this profile, but he's a pretty patient hitter that keeps his strikeouts to a reasonable rate and performed well against strong pitching in the Cape Cod League (.297/.412/.369). Overall, he projects as a fringe-average hitter with fringe-average power. Peterson is a plus runner who has stolen 37 bases in 40 tries over the past two seasons and added fifteen more on the Cape, adding an important dimension to his offensive game, and he has a chance to play center field in pro ball. That gives him an outside shot to play every day in the majors similar to Young, though he's not quite the defender that Young is. His most likely role is as a fourth outfielder who can play all three outfield positions, though his below average arm makes right field more of a stretch than center field. Petersen hit well in a brief stint at Low A Fredericksburg, slashing .364/.400/.591 with a 6/1 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games.

12-350: RHP Alexander Meckley, Coastal Carolina {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #421.
Alexander Meckley brings a big arm and a ton of talent to the Nats organization, making for a really nice find in the twelfth round. Meckley is a semi-local guy, having grown up just over the border in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, only about sixty miles north of Washington. He began his career at Potomac State JC in Keyser, West Virginia, where he developed into an ace and earned the opportunity to transfer to Coastal Carolina as one of the more intriguing incoming transfer arms in the country. He started strong in Conway, holding a 2.60 ERA through his first five starts, but allowed 25 runs in just ten innings over his next four and wound up in the bullpen. Meckley has big stuff. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 97 in relief, coming in with hard riding action and chewing up bats when he locates it. He adds a pair of hard breaking balls that look like potential above average pitches when he spins them right, though they're inconsistent can get hit when he hangs them. Meckley doesn't kill himself with walks but his control is far ahead of his command, leading to him getting hit harder than his stuff says he should. The Nationals could choose to be patient and stretch him out as a starter, where he'll have to add a changeup and refine his command, but he does look durable enough to do so. The 6'2" righty will likely end up in the bullpen in the long run, where he can focus on his fastball and breaking balls and just gas hitters up. Meckley is on the younger side for the class and turned 21 just before the draft, giving Washington a little extra time to play with his development. Working as a reliever in his pro debut, he tossed 5.2 shutout innings over three appearances while striking out five against four walks for Low A Fredericksburg.

14-410: RHP Yoel Tejeda Jr., Florida State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $225,000 ($75,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Nationals went big in the fourteenth round. Really big, actually – 6'8". Yoel Tejeda pitched one season each at Florida and Florida State, where he combined for unremarkable numbers: 5.74 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 26/29 K/BB in 42.1 innings. Ironically, he's been much, much better in two seasons in the Cape Cod League (3.52 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 37/14 K/BB in 30.2 innings). Tejeda's fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 97 at peak with plenty of running action. He has a tight slider with nice finish, then adds a splitter that he has solid feel for. Despite pitching at two of the premier programs in college baseball, the Nationals believe the South Florida native is just scratching the surface of what he could be, with good athleticism and an unbelievably projectable frame at a young age, only turning 21 shortly before the draft. Tejeda already has close to average control and as he continues growing into his massive frame, he could wind up with average or better command in time. He projects as a potential back-end starter at peak, though he has little starting experience to this point and will need considerable refinement to get to that ceiling.

15-440: C Sir Jamison Jones, St. Rita of Cascia HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($350,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #372.
Besides having one of the coolest names in the draft, Sir Jamison Jones also took home the Nationals' largest signing bonus after the fourth round, signing away from an Oklahoma State commitment for early fifth round money. Jones is big and physical, to say the least. Clocking in at 6'3", 225 pounds, he has a big league body that could go head to head with any prospect in the system. That translates to big time power potential from the right side, and he's already making strides towards tapping that power more in games. For now the swing can get rigid and lack loft, but it looked a bit better in 2024 than it had in the past. Jones also has a raw approach at the plate and will need to prove himself better against more advanced stuff, so he may take a little longer to work his way out of the low minors. His physicality translates behind the plate, where as with his bat, he's a bit raw. The Chicago-area product has a strong arm that makes up somewhat for a slower transfer, and he'll need to clean up his glovework handling pro pitching staffs. There's a very wide range between Jones' ceiling and his floor, with the possibility he ends up anywhere from a middle of the lineup catcher to a power hitting first baseman to a flameout who never reaches the majors.

19-560: RHP Ryan Minckler, Niagara {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Ryan Minckler didn't take your typical path to pro ball. He actually grew up in Bangkok, Thailand, then moved to New Hampshire in high school. He began his college career at UVA but never made it into a game, so he transferred to Niagara where he has acquitted himself nicely. Minckler's fastabll sits around 90 but ticked up late in the season, reaching 96 in the Stillwater Regional. He has an average slider with nice depth, but his changeup/splitter combination steals the show with bottomless fading action. He controls the strike zone well and has a chance to start in pro ball with his deep arsenal, physical frame, and repeatable delivery. His newfound velocity will be helpful as well if he can keep it on the right side of 90 over longer stints in pro ball, though the idea of Minckler sitting 94-95 in short stints while pitching off the changeup and splitter seems like a very nice fallback option.

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