Sunday, September 8, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: San Francisco Giants

Full list of draftees

Oracle Park is one of the tougher places in MLB to put a ball over the fence, but that won't stop this class of Giants from trying. It's a class full of power hitters, many of whom have serious questions about their hit tools but if just a couple break through, San Francisco will have the middle of its future lineup. The Giants were working with limited draft capital as they sacrificed their second and third round picks after signing both Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. That shifted the strategy a bit and I think they did well, still grabbing one of the best bats in the country in James Tibbs in the first round before handing Dakota Jordan second round money in the fourth round. They had to save money from there and didn't give any other player more than $400,000, so the draft was really focused on those two. Still, the Giants draft well and there's plenty to be interested in later on, including a pair of Northern California products.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-13: OF James Tibbs, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $5.27 million. Signing bonus: $4.75 million ($524,800 below slot value).
My rank: #12. MLB Pipeline: #12. Baseball America: #14.
Much was made about this draft's "top ten" names, and there was some truth to that being a separate talent tier from the rest of the class. James Tibbs, however, had a very good case for "best of the rest" with some teams believing he belonged in that top tier, and for good reason. He has hit over .300 with double digit home run totals in all three years at Florida State, finishing with an otherworldly 2024 in which he was named a first team All-American by numerous outlets, including D1Baseball and Baseball America. Tibbs is both a power and a contact hitter, with plus raw power that he taps consistently in games, including 28 home runs that finished tied for seventh in Division I last spring. It plays easily to all fields from a simple left handed swing and plenty of strength that makes the ball jump off his bat. He's come a long way since striking out in 31.7% of his plate appearances as a freshman in 2022, slashing that number to 20.1% in 2023 and all the way to 11.6% in 2024. The primary driver has been improvement against offspeed stuff, as he now makes plenty of contact against all pitch types and has become a much more disciplined hitter in the process. Together that projects for 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, which could hit right in the middle of San Francisco's lineup. He's certainly a bat-first prospect, as he's a below average runner with an average arm that could make him adequate in a corner outfield spot. It's nothing special defensively, but he won't be a liability and the Giants are buying that big bat which will profile at any position. The Atlanta-area native has a chance to be an impact hitter for a long time in San Francisco. Tibbs raked at Low A San Jose (.415/.429/.512 in nine games) but has since hit a bit of a wall since his promotion to High A Eugene, where he is slashing .134/.216/.239 in seventeen games.

4-116: OF Dakota Jordan, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $624,800. Signing bonus: $2 million ($1.38 million above slot value).
My rank: #40. MLB Pipeline: #34. Baseball America: #35.
Lacking a second or third round pick, the Giants went way over slot to give Dakota Jordan early second round money anyways (roughly the slot value for the #47 pick) here in the fourth round. Jordan is an absolutely tremendous talent with massive upside that he'll need to work hard to achieve. A well-known prospect out of the Jackson area, where he played high school ball alongside 2024 Pirates first rounder Konnor Griffin, he turned down day two offers to attend Mississippi State. Initially considered extremely raw, he hit the ground running in Starkville and turned in one of the best freshman seasons in the SEC in 2023 to elevate his stock. Teams were hoping for a full on breakout in 2024, and while he doubled his home run total and bumped up his batting average by nearly fifty points, his peripherals remained the same and he wound up closer to a second round prospect than a first rounder. The tools, though, are top of the scale. Jordan has ferocious hands that rip the bat through the zone at thunderous speed, creating plus-plus raw power that generates some of the highest peak exit velocities of any hitter in this draft class. The power comes effortlessly and the ball explodes off his bat to all fields, even if he doesn't square it up. That's important, because he's very raw as a hitter. While James Tibbs has dramatically cut his strikeout rate at school, Jordan has not, with a 25.0% rate as a freshman increasing to 29.0% as a sophomore. His quick hands give him no trouble against velocity, but he can be completely undone by good breaking balls which led to elevated chase rates and a ton of swing and miss. Pro pitchers are going to attack him with a plethora of offspeed stuff and it will be better located than what he saw in college (though he did face very strong pitching in the SEC), so it will be imperative for Jordan to clean up that part of his game and do it quickly because despite being a true sophomore, he did turn 21 back in May. If he can become even a fringy hitter against breaking balls, the sky is the limit for his bat. Jordan is also a plus runner with a powder keg 6' frame, showing one of the best strength/speed combinations in the draft. That said, his overall outfield defense is a bit raw and he may not be a center fielder long term, likely slotting into a corner outfield spot where he could be above average given his speed. So far, he's hitless in seven at bats with a pair of strikeouts for Low A San Jose.

5-149: OF Jakob Christian, San Diego {video}
Slot value: $453,300. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($55,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #216. Baseball America: #457.
Jakob Christian continues the power theme in a big way. He spent two years at Point Loma Nazarene, then transferred to San Diego for his junior season and finished with 26 home runs, two behind first rounder James Tibbs. It's plus power that he can access very consistently in games, and he has no issues pummeling fastballs. Similar to Dakota Jordan, he does struggle with breaking balls and will have to clean that up as he continues to face better and better pitching. While that didn't hurt him in school and he in fact won the West Coast Conference Player of the Year award this year, he did slash just .179/.347/.308 with a 30.6% strikeout rate in a smaller 19 game Cape Cod League sample. The San Diego native measures in at 6'5" and has long levers and a noisy load that can impact his barrel accuracy, so his overall offensive game may need more refinement than the typical college draftee. The power though brings big upside if he can access it just enough. Christian is also a below average runner who will have to work to stay in a corner outfield spot, and there's a decent chance he ends up at first base in the long run. That will place additional pressure on his bat, with the likely projection being a platoon bat that plays against lefties and provides some pop. The Giants see the size and power and think they can refine it into more as they simplify his mechanics and let his natural strength do the work. It looks to be going nicely so far, as he's slashing .267.378/.500 with one home run and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio through nine games at Low A San Jose.

6-178: 3B Robert Hipwell, Santa Clara {video}
Slot value: $348,200. Signing bonus: $345,700 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #198. MLB Pipeline: #139. Baseball America: #157.
The Giants went to their own backyard for this one. Robert Hipwell hails from Santa Cruz and graduated from Scotts Valley High School just north into the mountains. He spent the past three seasons at Santa Clara, where he has had a bit of an up and down career. After not playing much as a freshman, Hipwell broke out for a big sophomore season to put his name squarely on draft radars. He missed the first half of the season with a suspension then returned for a solid second half. He has a bit of an interesting profile. The approach is excellent, with strong pitch recognition and an absolute refusal to chase anything out of the zone helping him find exactly the pitch he wants to hit with regularity. That's important because the pure bat to ball is below average and he can get in trouble in deep counts and against pitchers who can execute in the zone. Meanwhile, Hipwell's raw power is fringy but he does a very good job of elevating and turning on the ball to maximize that power, leading to more home runs than you'd expect given modest exit velocities. Between the swing path and pitch recognition, he should be able to continue to tap that power with wood bats. Hipwell has improved his body at Santa Clara and now has a shot to stick at third base with increased athleticism and good arm strength. He'll have to maintain his conditioning and continue to work on his glovework, otherwise he could be forced to move across to first base. That will put more pressure on his power production, which is already a question going forward. The Giants see a potential every day third baseman who will feel perfectly comfortable working major league at bats and who can cover up holes in his swing by getting ahead in counts and ensuring he'll never miss his pitch when he gets it. He could also unlock more power as he gets farther from his suspension and learns to better leverage his big 6'3" frame. He's continuing to elevate the ball with authority at Low A San Jose, where he's slashing .196/.360/.402 but has already homered five times with a 40/21 strikeout to walk ratio through 29 games.

7-208: LHP Greg Farone, Alabama {video}
Slot value: $272,200. Signing bonus: $204,150 ($68,050 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #236.
Greg Farone has been around the block. He began his career at Herkimer JC in Upstate New York, where he went 13-0 with a 1.83 ERA and a 213/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings in his two years. JuCo hitters were thrilled to be rid of him when he transferred to Louisville, where he served as a swingman for the Cardinals. Pushing further south, he transferred again to Alabama in 2024 and performed admirably, holding down a weekend rotation spot all year long. Farone is a classic pitchability lefty who won't wow you with big stuff. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95 with some riding action from a higher slot, missing more bats than you'd expect with its average velocity. His slider gets nice depth and looks like an average pitch at best, while his changeup gives him a third option to neutralize righties. The 6'6" lefty comes from an extremely free and easy delivery that will serve him well as he's asked to take on bigger workloads in pro ball. He also fills the strike zone with above average command looks the part of a classic starting pitcher. The Giants will look to bring the secondary stuff along and perhaps add a tick or two to the fastball, which he's plenty strong enough to do, and work him up as a back-end starter. A senior sign, Farone is fairly young for a college senior and only turned 22 in May.

12-358: SS Zander Darby, UC Santa Barbara {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #176. MLB Pipeline: #151. Baseball America: #248.
Make it two NorCal natives for the Giants. Zander Darby hails from Palo Alto and attended powerhouse Palo Alto High School, which has also produced current top prospects like Josh Kasevich (Blue Jays), Henry Bolte (A's), and Charlie Bates (Stanford) in addition to MLB outfielder Joc Pederson in recent years. He spent the past three seasons down south at UC Santa Barbara, and there were points early this spring where a hot start had him knocking on the door of day one draft discussions. Although he couldn't sustain that success and finished with a pedestrian .275/.347/.420 slash line in a year where offense was high, he's still a very interesting get here on day three. Darby has a big league body at 6'3" with some projection remaining, giving him the chance to grow into an impact hitter. Employing a simple operation from the left side, he uses the whole field with a pretty effortless swing that's more geared towards line drives than turning on the ball for power. He rarely chases, but pitchers attacked him in 2024 and found some holes in the zone with his swing, leading to a slightly elevated strikeout rate (up to 17.9% in 2024 from 15.6% in 2023) and a lower walk rate (down to 9.9% from 11.7%) despite that low chase rate. Darby also has fringy power, but given his size, he could grow into average or better pop if he started to focus on that more. He did show well on the Cape, where he slashed .271/.387/.395 and controlled the strike zone very effectively against high level pitching. It's a pretty average offensive profile across the board, but that means he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses either and a step forward in any aspect could make him a very interesting bat for the Giants. Drafted as a shortstop, he probably fits better at second or third base with average speed and a solid arm. He does move well for his size but may slow down in the long run. So far, he's hitting .234/.351/.489 with four home runs and a 17/9 strikeout to walk ratio through thirteen games for Low A San Jose.

14-418: 1B Jeremiah Jenkins, Maine {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #199. Baseball America: #288.
And here is even more power for the Giants. Jeremiah Jenkins has been unstoppable for Maine over the past two seasons, where he has slashed .353/.473/.759 with 43 home runs in just 102 games, and he now joins former Maine teammate Quinn McDaniel in the Giants' system. Jenkins, like many players in this Giants draft class, has tremendous raw power, with top end exit velocities that can compete with any hitter in college baseball. He stands 6'4" and has gotten considerably stronger in Orono, with a simple left handed swing that naturally lofts the ball to the pull side. He ran pretty decent contact and chase rates in 2024 and walked (15.6%) more than he struck out (15.1%), but he also faced a particularly weak schedule while at Maine and will be tested with the jump from the CAA to pro ball. The bat will have to play because he is a below average runner who will be confined to first base going forward, where he may have to compete with Jakob Christian and Robert Hipwell just from San Francisco's early picks this year. Jenkins hits the ball harder than either of those two, and harder than almost any player in the Giants' system except perhaps Dakota Jordan and Bryce Eldridge. He's still hitting the ball hard at Low A San Jose, where he's slashing .295/.367/.545 with two home runs and a 16/4 strikeout to walk ratio through eleven games.

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