Sunday, September 29, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Chicago White Sox

Full list of draftees

While there's not much to cheer for at the major league level, the White Sox pulled in a star-studded draft class headlined by arguably the best amateur pitcher in the country, Hagen Smith. They pushed all the chips in with nearly $12.5 million spent on their first three picks, putting themselves almost $1.3 million above the corresponding slot values at that point but with their massive bonus pool were able to avoid major cost cutting measures for much of the draft aside from handing just $15K combined to their ninth and tenth round picks, Jack Young and Cole McConnell. It's a very diverse class that features everything from funky lefties to power arms to power bats to slap hitters, and while I didn't love every pick, I'm still impressed with the haul they brought away.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-5: LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $7.76 million. Signing bonus: $8 million ($236,300 above slot value).
My rank: #6. MLB Pipeline: #5. Baseball America: #6.
Garrett Crochet shot from the SEC to the South Side of Chicago, and Hagen Smith has a very good chance to be the next lefty to do the same. He gained notoriety for an outstanding high school senior season in which he completely shut down East Texas hitters to a peep, tossing multiple no-hitters in the process, but made it to campus in Fayetteville because he was just a little too raw for teams to invest to his liking. At Arkansas, Smith has shaved more than a run off his ERA each season, from 4.66 to 3.64 to 2.04, and in 2024 was one of the best pitchers in the entire country. The stuff has gotten nastier and nastier, too. They say progress is never linear, but for Smith, it has been pretty dang linear. After reaching campus with a fastball around 90, he has gradually dialed it up and can now reach triple digits at peak, sitting comfortably in the mid 90's. The pitch has plenty of running action from a lower release point, and while the ride is just average, it misses a ton of bats regardless. His slider is his best pitch, an absolutely filthy breaking ball in which the bottom just drops out right before it gets to the plate, looking like a potential plus-plus pitch. He also throws a splitter at a much lower rate, and while it's inconsistent, it does flash above average potential. When Smith first got to campus, his delivery was disjointed and he struggled with command. After three years, it's still a bit funky but he repeats it much better and now shows fringe-average command. While he's still not pinpoint, the funk, which includes an exaggerated stab towards first base with his glove and an extreme cross-body arm path, does make his already nasty stuff all the more difficult to pick up. The 6'3" lefty has really filled out in school and now looks like a durable big league starting pitcher. While a funky two pitch lefty with fringy command might not be the most bulletproof starting pitching profile, those two pitches are so effective and his positive trajectory is so clear that he should be a pretty safe bet. Even as is, Smith has what it takes to be a mid-rotation starter. If he can bring the changeup along and continue improving his command (his walk rate did drop from 13.4% over his first two years to 10.3% in 2024), he has true ace potential. Chicago gave him three abbreviated starts at High A Winston-Salem, where he allowed three runs over 7.2 innings while striking out seven and walking two.

2-43: SS Caleb Bonemer, Okemos HS [MI] {video}
Slot value: $2.17 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($827,200 above slot value).
My rank: #35. MLB Pipeline: #71. Baseball America: #36.
Chicago pushed their bonus pool chips in on this one, signing Caleb Bonemer away from a UVA commitment for more than $800,000 above slot value, just over the slot value of the #30 pick here at #43. Bonemer rode a huge 2023 summer to the top of the prep class, earning buzz as high as the middle of the first round entering the 2024 season. He had to wait for the Michigan winter to thaw while other preps further south had a chance to push their profiles forward early in the spring, then had a more good than great senior season to fall back a tick. Still his immense raw talent and the summer performance were not lost on Chicago evaluators, who see him as a legitimate impact talent. Bonemer can whip the barrel through the zone with the best of them, showing plenty of bat speed from twitchy hips and wrists to create above average power that could eventually become plus as he fills out his 6'1" frame. As a cold weather bat, he didn't see much elite pitching until recently, and his approach remains raw even if it hasn't hurt him much yet. Bonemer will need more reps against advanced arms to get acclimated and that creates some risk. The Lansing native is an above average runner with the body control to play shortstop, so he has a real shot to stay there if he doesn't slow down with age. Many see Bonemer as a third baseman long term, where he could be an above average defender. Overall, he has a shot to hit 20-30 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages and good infield defense, perhaps somewhere in between Jonathan Schoop and Ian Desmond.

CBB-68: LHP Blake Larson, IMG Academy [FL] {video}
Slot value: $1.2 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($200,300 above slot value).
My rank: #100. MLB Pipeline: #104. Baseball America: #121.
This is a really fun arm for the White Sox, who went above slot again to sign Blake Larson away from a TCU commitment. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 with nasty running and sinking action from a low three quarters, almost sidearm slot. His slider shows heavy sweep across the plate and can tie up hitters with regularity, while his changeup has made progress at IMG and is looking like it will be ready for pro ball. Larson, like Hagen Smith, is a funky lefty that makes life difficult on hitters. He has a big, high leg kick leading into that low arm slot, with a ton of athleticism that helps him explode towards the plate and put a plenty of movement on all his pitches. It's a really elastic delivery that promises to channel any strength gains into additional velocity, with plenty of room to add weight to his skinny, projectable 6'2" frame. For now, his command is fringy as he's still learning to repeat that delivery and harness his explosive stuff, and that will be a major point of development for Chicago. The Des Moines native has a ton of upside and joins an organization that has had a ton of success with funky lefties, from Chris Sale to Garrett Crochet to Noah Schultz to now hopefully Smith and Larson. It may take Larson longer to get to the bigs but he has mid rotation upside.

3-78: OF Nick McLain, Arizona State {video}
Slot value: $996,100. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($196,100 below slot value).
My rank: #185. MLB Pipeline: #129. Baseball America: #208.
Nick McLain comes from a baseball family to say the least. His oldest brother, Matt, put up a strong rookie year for the Reds in 2023 while his other older brother, Sean, reached High A with the hometown Dodgers this year. Nick now makes it three for three on the McLain boys getting drafted in the top five rounds, a success rate I'm certain my future kids will match. Matt played at UCLA and Sean played at Arizona State, so naturally Nick began his career at UCLA and later transferred to Arizona State after one year (though he didn't play with either brother in school). Listed at 5'10", 190 pounds with just average athleticism, his tools don't jump off the page but the whole is greater than the sum of his parts. He has a professional approach at the plate that helps him make a ton of contact with a compact, efficient right handed swing, and his approach played up in the Cape Cod League where he hit .287/.380/.426 against elite pitching last summer. McLain does not have big raw power, registering below average top-end exit velocities, but he accesses what power he does have in games by elevating with authority. That gives him a shot to hit 10-15 home runs per season with high on-base percentages at peak. The Southern California native has average defensive tools and likely fits in right field long term, where there will be pressure on his switch hitting bat, though he can move a little bit and the White Sox may try to see what he can do in center field. McLain most likely profiles as a fourth outfielder who can handle the corners well, though it remains to be seen if he can continue to access enough power with wood bats to play every day.

4-107: OF Casey Saucke, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $682,800. Signing bonus: $847,500 ($164,700 above slot value).
My rank: #140. MLB Pipeline: #127. Baseball America: #145.
Continuing to dip further into the bonus pool, Chicago handed Casey Saucke a signing bonus fit for the #88 pick here at #107. Saucke burst onto the scene with a huge freshman season at UVA, then saw his stock dip after a quieter sophomore season and a rough run through the Cape Cod League (.185/.254/.241). However, a big junior season in 2024 put him back on the map for early draft conversations. He's big and physical at 6'3", 210 pounds, having filled out nicely during his time in Charlottesville. Though his right handed swing isn't the prettiest, with a deep barrel tip towards the backstop and a bit of a jerky load, he unleashes above average to plus raw power with impressive top end exit velocities. The hit tool is a bit more questionable, as he chases at a very high rate, especially against breaking balls, and therefore doesn't always control his at bats well against higher level pitching. Last summer on the Cape, he struck out 23.7% of the time, which isn't terrible but is higher than you'd like. Still, he's a career .332/.410/.524 hitter at UVA that was at his best in 2024 and has made his aggressive approach work in Charlottesville. If he can reign it in just a little, he has enough bat to ball ability to make use of his power and knock 20-25 home runs per season with lower on-base percentages, perhaps in a Randal Grichuk mold. Saucke is a better athlete than Grichuk, showing above average speed that he has held onto as he's filled out. If the Rochester, New York native can maintain that speed going forward, he has a shot to play center field adequately. If not, or if the White Sox go with quicker options up the middle, his above average arm could make him a nice value add in right field. Saucke is young for a college junior, having turned 21 after the draft, and was one of the more projectable college bats available this year. If he can get the approach under control, he has every day upside. He showed well in his pro debut, effectively handling an aggressive assignment to High A Winston-Salem by hitting .290/.333/.398 with a pair of home runs and a 26/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games.

5-140: SS Sam Antonacci, Coastal Carolina {video}
Slot value: $495,400. Signing bonus: $572,500 ($77,100 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #201. Baseball America: #299.
Sam Antonacci is the opposite of Casey Saucke, but gives them another over slot signing. A hometown kid, he grew up in Springfield, Illinois where he attended Sacred Heart-Griffin High School. He started his career at Heartland JC in Normal, just down the road from Illinois State, where he was a one man wrecking crew hitting .490/.585/.863 with 28 home runs and just 44 strikeouts over 120 games for the Hawks. I think the NJCAA kicked him out and told him to never come back because it simply wasn't a fair fight, so he transferred to Coastal Carolina this year and kept on hitting to the tune of a .367/.523/.504 line in 61 games. While Saucke is a projectable power hitter, Antonacci is purely a contact bat. He combines an ultra patient approach at the plate with elite bat to ball ability, leading to some of the highest contact rates in college baseball. While Saucke chased about 31% of the time, Antonacci was closer to 13%. Antonacci's passive approach often got him into deep counts in 2024, and 38.2% of his plate appearances ended without a ball in play, either by walk (16.3%), strikeout (13.1%), or hit by pitch (8.8%). If you think 8.8% of the time is a lot to get hit by a pitch, that's because his 27 finished sixth in Division I. When he does swing, it's a simple, quick strike gash at the ball where he goes with the pitch and sprays it out to all fields effectively. While he slugged .863 in JuCo ball, Antonacci preferred not to turn on the ball at Coastal and hit just six home runs, though his exit velocity data does point to potential below average power that could mean 5-10 home runs per season in the majors. A third baseman at Coastal, he likely slides over to second base in pro ball where his arm will fit better, but he should stay on the dirt without issue despite fringy speed. He profiles as a utility infielder who can get on base consistently despite being a one tool player.

9-259: RHP Jack Young, Iowa {video}
Slot value: $199,200. Signing bonus: $7,500 ($191,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
A money saving senior sign, Jack Young gives the White Sox another local Midwest kid. A native of Le Claire, Iowa, right over the river from Illinois in the Quad Cities region, he attended Pleasant Valley High School in Bettendorf then started off his college career at Parkland JC in Champaign. He actually pitched against Sam Antonacci there, who promptly homered off of Young like he did every other pitcher he faced in JuCo. After two years at Parkland, Young returned to his home state and spent the past two seasons at Iowa, where in 2024 he grew into the Hawkeyes' most reliable reliever. What he lacks in power, he makes up for in deception and movement. The fastball rarely tops 90 even in short stints, but plays above its velocity because of his sidearm slot and the wicked running action he puts on the ball. He also works in the opposite direction with a huge sweeping slider that dives across the plate, forcing hitters to cover a massive east-west range. Young also pounds the strike zone and shows above average command, which helps him execute despite the lack of power. He'll need to find an extra gear in pro ball to continue to get advanced hitters out, but it's a different look that could work his way into middle relief in Chicago in short order if he does.

13-379: RHP Pierce George, Alabama {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($47,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: #209. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #213.
This pick is a gamble as the White Sox dipped into their bonus pool again, but Pierce George brings much more upside than you'd typically get from a college arm for under $200K. He started off close to home at Texas, but only heard his name called three times and walked four of the eleven hitters he faced. He transferred to Alabama in search of more playing time and got it to a degree, making fifteen appearances in 2024 but still walking 18% of his opponents. As you might expect, George has absolutely wicked stuff. The fastball sits in the upper 90's and touches as high as 102 with running life, blowing past hitters when he can get it near the zone. He drops in a power slider in the upper 80's that can make hitters look silly, especially since they're geared up for triple digits. He also has bottom of the scale command, struggling to harness his explosive stuff and spending more time behind in the count than ahead. That command is slowly improving, with *small sample* walk rates dropping from 36.4% as a freshman to 18.0% as a sophomore to 11.1% on the Cape leading up to the draft, and if he can get to even 40 grade (below average) command, he has a shot to be a real weapon in the bullpen. We'll also have to watch out for health, as you would with anybody who throws that hard. Given his limited workload in college, he was one of the few pitchers the White Sox got on the mound in minor league games this spring and in six appearances he allowed six runs (four earned) over six innings, striking out five and walking three (another small sample walk rate improvement – now down to 10.7%) for Low A Kannapolis.

17-499: 1B Lyle Miller-Green, Austin Peay {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $25,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #450.
If you think you've heard of circuitous routes to pro ball, just wait until you hear this story. Oleg Sergevich Kornev was born in Tomsk, a remote Siberian town almost 1800 miles east of Moscow, then had his name changed to Lyle Miller-Green when he was adopted by an American family. Raised going to Jewish day school in Northern Virginia, he initially committed to Virginia Tech as a pitcher before coaching changes led him to stay home and attend nearby George Mason instead. After playing both ways for the Patriots in 2020, he headed south to Chipola JC in Florida for 2021 to strong results, then transferred west to Oklahoma State for the 2022 season. He didn't play much for the Cowboys, so he came back east to his fifth school in five years (if you include high school) and finally settled in at Austin Peay in Tennessee. All he did for the Governors was blast 46 home runs over two seasons while throwing over one hundred innings on the mound, bombarding his way into the White Sox organization. This is a 6'5", 235 pound Siberian man with gargantuan raw power, registering elite top-end exit velocities in line with the best hitters in college baseball. He tapped that power in games, too, as one of just five Division I hitters to reach thirty home runs in 2024 and the only one to do so while playing fewer than sixty games. His .900 slugging percentage, too, was good for third in Division I behind only first overall pick Travis Bazzana (1.009) and third overall pick Charlie Condon (.911). He tapped that power against top competition on the Cape, too, blasting 14 home runs and slashing .253/.369/.454 over 85 games across three seasons. Beyond that, though Austin Peay doesn't play the most difficult schedule, he did get six games against Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Auburn in 2024 and went 10-24 (.417 AVG) with four home runs and just three strikeouts, so you between that and the Cape you can't call his numbers solely a product of weak competition. All that said, there is some swing and miss in his game. He struck out nearly a third of the time in his three Cape seasons and ran middling contact rates at Austin Peay, and he will be tested in pro ball. LMG is also one of the oldest players taken in this draft, having turned 24 a couple months after the draft and he'll want to move quickly. Though he pitched in college and can reach 95 with his fastball, his below average speed and athleticism will limit him to first base in pro ball, putting additional pressure on his bat. Miller-Green profiles best as a power hitting bench bat that gets playing time against left handed pitching, but for just $25K I really like this find in the seventeenth round. He had mixed results in his pro debut at Low A Kannapolis, where he slashed .219/.351/.375 with two home runs and a 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games against younger competition.

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