Monday, September 16, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

As has become a trend for them, the Tigers went heavy on preps in 2024, drafting high schoolers with their first three picks and then taking a five in the later rounds. They didn't sign all of those later gambles, with the biggest "one that got away" being Kansas City righty Anson Seibert on his way to a Tennessee commitment, but did pick up a few. It's a pitching-heavy class beyond first rounder Bryce Rainer, though they paused briefly to grab a trio of college bats in the middle of day two with some really interesting data profiles.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-11: SS Bryce Rainer, Harvard-Westlake HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $5.71 million. Signing bonus: $5.8 million ($87,900 above slot value).
My rank: #9. MLB Pipeline: #10. Baseball America: #10.
The Tigers grabbed a top-two high school bat for the second straight season, following Max Clark in 2023 with Bryce Rainer in 2024. Rainer hails from the same Harvard-Westlake School in the LA Hills that famously produced Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and now Pete Crow-Armstrong, and he has a chance to be the best of all of them. He was a two-way player for the Wolverines who could have been a day one draft pick as a pitcher, running his fastball up to 96 with the makings of a solid breaking ball and changeup, but he'll hit for Detroit. Rainer entered the spring projected in the back of the first round, then embarked on an excellent senior season that saw him elevate virtually every aspect of his game. Previously forced to sell out for power, he showed up looking more physical in 2024 and was able to access that power much more freely and easily without sacrificing any thump. He's long and athletic in the box and generates a ton of torque with his left handed swing, with a shot at plus power at the next level. At the same time, Rainer came out this spring showing much better barrel accuracy and performed against top pitching around Southern California, quelling many swing and miss questions and looking like a much more complete hitter. This is a bat that could swat 25-30 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages, which would put him in the middle of any lineup. He's always had that plus arm, but his defense looked much more fluid this spring as well and he now looks like a bona fide shortstop. Rainer moves well on the dirt and shows more speed than you'd expect given his bigger 6'3" frame, and he didn't slow down at all despite packing on more muscle last winter. There's still more projection remaining and the LA kid has a chance to be one of the best players in this class. He had previously been committed to Texas.

2-49: RHP Owen Hall, Edmond North HS [OK] {video}
Slot value: $1.89 million. Signing bonus: $1.75 million ($143,700 below slot value).
My rank: #78. MLB Pipeline: #74. Baseball America: #86.
Three years ago, the Tigers grabbed Jackson Jobe with their first round pick and while he hasn't always stayed healthy, he's looked excellent on the mound. This year, the Tigers went back to the Oklahoma City high school ranks to take another prep righty, this time Owen Hall, and signed him slightly below slot value to pull him away from a Vanderbilt commitment. Hall has long been a famous name in this class, having pushed himself into the first round conversation at various points during his high school career. While others have since passed him and he finds himself selected in the second round, he's still an elite arm. Hall's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 with riding life from an over the top slot. He rips off an above average slider with nice sharp bite, then rounds out his arsenal with a decent strike-stealing curveball and an average changeup. The 6'3" righty has a clean, picturesque delivery that he repeats well and features very little wasted movement, helping him pound the strike zone with average command and above average control. Hall is very strong right now and still has projection remaining, looking like he'll be plenty durable as a starter in the long run. If there's a bone to pick with the profile, it's that his delivery might be almost too clean and lack deception, leading to his pitches playing a little true. However, between the size, strength, projection, deep arsenal, and control, Hall looks like as "safe" a starting pitching prospect as you'll find for second round money while retaining plenty of upside.

CBB-72: LHP Ethan Schiefelbein, Corona HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $1.09 million. Signing bonus: $1.8 million ($703,900 above slot value).
My rank: #88. MLB Pipeline: #94. Baseball America: #91.
Ethan Schiefelbein makes it back to back prep pitchers and three straight preps overall to start the draft, this time signing for well above slot value (roughly the value of the #51 pick) to eschew a UCLA commitment. While Bryce Rainer is up to 96 and Owen Hall is up to 98, Schiefelbein is more of a finesse lefty who sits in the low 90's and touches 94 at best. His fastball, though, plays well above its modest velocity because because of sneaky life that gives it some "invisiball" qualities while he hides the pitch well in the delivery. He has feel for a pair of nice breaking balls in a slider and a changeup, which get nice depth and miss high school bats at a high rate. Lastly, his changeup is still fairly raw but his acumen on the mound should enable him to develop it effectively in pro ball. The 6'2" lefty repeats his athletic delivery well and throws all four of his pitches with conviction, helping him pound the strike zone with above average command. The Tigers see a ton of projection on the 18 year old and think he can add significant power to both his fastball and his secondary stuff, which when combined with his pitchability and handedness could make him a mid-rotation starter.

3-85: RHP Josh Randall, San Diego {video}
Slot value: $892,600. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($192,600 below slot value).
My rank: #163. MLB Pipeline: #143. Baseball America: #223.
The Tigers made Josh Randall their third pick from Southern California out of four, and he'll be their first college pick. Randall began his career at Arizona, where he struggled to an 8.66 ERA in limited action over two seasons, then transferred to San Diego and where he served as the Toreros' ace in 2024. Another power arm, he sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 with a ton of run and sink from a low three quarters slot. He has a hard, short slider that gives him another above average weapon, while his firm changeup flashes average or better potential but needs further refinement. Randall gives hitters a really tough look, with his low three quarters slot and low release point playing up further because he gets down the mound very well with nice extension. While he struggled mightily with command at Arizona, he dropped his walk rate from 20% in Tucson to 8% in San Diego, now looking at least average in that regard. Now there's the question of whether he can start. Some may point to his delivery, which features a bit of a crouch and that low three quarters release point, as well as his shallow arsenal, and see him as more of a reliever. The Tigers, however, will look to his size (6'4", 240 pounds), arm strength, athleticism, and newfound command to get him through the lineup multiple times every turn in the rotation. They'll work to bring the changeup along and hold the command together – otherwise, the Southern California native has most of what it takes to start in pro ball. If not, he'll be a funky fastball/slider reliever with power stuff. In two appearances for Low A Lakeland, he allowed two runs in four innings while striking out a pair and walking none, though he did hit two.

4-114: RHP Michael Massey, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $637,200. Signing bonus: $522,500 ($114,700 below slot value).
My rank: #104. MLB Pipeline: #109. Baseball America: #94.
Michael Massey, not to be confused with the Royals infielder of the same name, has had a bit of an up and down ride but brings plenty of arm talent to Detroit. He began his career at Tulane, then transferred to Wake Forest after one season and was nearly untouchable out of the bullpen as a sophomore in 2023. Massey's stock rose when Wake Forest announced he'd be a part of the rotation in 2024, with top fifty projections rolling in preseason and many thinking he could rise into the first round. However, his stuff and command took a step back in longer outings and he watched his strikeout (47.2% to 32.1%) and walk (9.9% to 15.1%) rates move heavily in the wrong directions. After reaching 98 in the bullpen, Massey's fastball sat more in the low 90's and topped out around 94-95 in longer outings, though it retained its elite riding life with a true north-south profile. His slider looks plus at its best, and while he threw it harder in short stints in 2023, it still showed nasty late bite in 2024 and missed a ton of bats. He added a truer downer curveball in 2024 as well which he struggled to command at times, but it missed plenty of bats as well when he executed it in the zone. Massey doesn't use his changeup much in games but has shown a decent one in bullpen sessions. The 6'5" righty hides the ball well with short arm action and uses his size to get elite extension down the mound, giving his stuff that much more hop out of his hand. While he repeated his delivery well in short stints, the command ticked back in 2024 and looked fringier. The Tigers could still try him out as a starter given his size and arm strength, though he'll need to continue to be methodically stretched out to get the most out of his high octane stuff. If he moves back to the bullpen, he could lean back on that fastball/slider combination that served him so well in 2023 and move quickly.

5-147: SS Jack Penney, Notre Dame {video}
Slot value: $462,300. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($64,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #500.
With their sixth pick, the Tigers finally went for a college bat, and they wound up with the metrically intriguing Jack Penney. Penney was a two year starter and three year contributor at Notre Dame, where he never posted eye popping stats but showed very well under the surface. A hit over power type, the Boston-area product takes some of the best at bats in the class with an extremely disciplined approach that led to ultra low chase rates and an impressive 16.0% walk rate in 2024. On top of that, he makes plenty of contact and struck out in just 13.9% of his plate appearances, making for a really well-rounded hit tool. That advanced bat played up on the Cape, where he hit .284/.376/.404 with five home runs and a 39/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games. While he's content to drive the ball around the field for singles and doubles, he has a sneaky quick bat that produces fringe-average power and he can really turn on the ball for average pop to his pull side. Given his pitch selection and bat to ball aptitude, I could see a slightly more power-oriented approach working in pro ball and he has a shot for 10-15 home runs per season to go with high on-base percentages at peak. The bat looks even better considering his glove, as he'll likely stick on the infield. Shortstop may be a stretch with average defensive tools, but he could profile very well at second or third base. That's some nice upside for a fifth rounder signed a bit below slot value. He got a brief cup of coffee at Low A Lakeland after the draft, slashing .255/.367/.392 with and 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over fourteen games.

6-176: SS Woody Hadeen, UC Irvine {video}
Slot value: $354,100. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($54,100 below slot value).
My rank: #153. MLB Pipeline: #130. Baseball America: #401.
This is one of the most extreme profiles in the entire draft, and it's certainly a fun one. Metrically speaking, it's also one of the best hit tools in the entire class. Out of 145 college hitters on the Baseball America 500, no hitter came even close to matching 8.4% chase rate, with the next best being Samford's Garrett Howe (now with the Guardians) at 12.1%. Meanwhile, his 89.4% contact rate was second only to Texas Tech's Kevin Bazzell (now with the Nationals), who was just ahead at 89.5%. This is a man who, frankly speaking, never ever chases and when he does swing, never ever whiffs. It's probably the most extreme contact-oriented approaches in the class, as Hadeen just slaps the ball around the field with no regard for lifting or turning on it and just searches for holes a la Luis Arraez. A switch hitter, he has an elite eye and elite hand eye coordination, showing some similarities to last year's Pirates second rounder (and Saginaw native/Michigan State alum) Mitch Jebb. Not only did he get on base at a .524 (!) clip for UC Irvine this spring, he actually hit .424 (14-33) in a tiny eight game sample in the Cape Cod League back in 2022. Of course there's a tradeoff, and Hadeen lasted until the sixth round because of his power. Not only did he have (by far) the lowest chase rate and the second highest contact rate out of 145 hitters, he also had the lowest 90th percentile exit velocity at 98.7 MPH. That's 30 grade power, and he hit just one home run in 155 career games in Irvine. Hadeen is almost exclusively a singles hitter whose entire offensive value will come from his on-base percentage. Listed at 6'2", he's big enough and whips the bat around well enough to probably tack on a little additional power in pro ball, but that's not his game. Meanwhile, he's an above average runner with strong instincts to deploy his speed well, which helps him on both sides of the ball. He can play anywhere on the field, with shortstop a real possibility even if his arm is a bit stretched there. The Southern California native most likely projects as a light hitting utility infielder. Luis Arraez comparisons, as I noted above, will be common and would represent his absolute ceiling if everything breaks right. In a short four game stint for Low A Lakeland, he picked up one hit in nine at bats while walking twice and striking out once.

9-266: RHP Zach Swanson, Toutle Lake HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: $195,100. Signing bonus: $722,500 ($527,400 above slot value).
My rank: #206. MLB Pipeline: #178. Baseball America: #160.
The Tigers made one more splash here in the ninth round, grabbing another expensive high school arm by going half a million over slot value (late third round money, roughly pick #101) to sign Zach Swanson away from an Oregon State commitment. Swanson starts things off with a low 90's fastball that gets up to 95, playing up with riding life. His high spin slider is his best pitch, coming in with late bite that dives under bats and looks above average. He has great feel for it and is willing to throw it in any count, a separator for a high school arm. His changeup, meanwhile, is a distant third pitch and will need significant refinement in pro ball. Swanson is a very good athlete but throws with considerable effort on the mound, showing heavy head whack that impacts his command and leads to bouts of inconsistency. The delivery will likely need to be overhauled as well in pro ball, and that could unlock much more upside than expected. If the Tigers can iron him out, he has mid rotation upside, with a fallback option as a fastball/slider reliever.

15-446: OF Zach MacDonald, Miami [OH] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
If Zach MacDonald reaches the majors, I believe he would be the first Michigander since Eric Haase (Westland) to play for the Tigers. MacDonald grew up Portage, a suburb of Kalamazoo, where he attended Portage Central High School. He spent the last three seasons at Miami of Ohio, where he has long shown power but put it all together in 2024. A local favorite of Midwest area scouts, MacDonald provides nice upside for a college pick this late in the draft, with plenty of tools that could make him an impact player if he pulls everything together. He creates nice separation in his right handed swing with a leveraged stroke that gets long through the zone and lifts the ball with authority. He previously struggled with swing and miss and struck out at a 31.3% clip in 2023, an extremely high number especially for a hitter in a mid major conference, but cut that number down to 20.2% in 2024. That's still a bit of an elevated number, and while his barrel accuracy has improved dramatically, he can still get under the ball and may be susceptible to quality fastballs up in the zone. MacDonald is a solid runner as well and should be able to hold is own in all three outfield spots, which helps his projection as a dynamic fourth outfielder. He'll have to continue to clean up his swing and miss as he makes the jump from the MAC to pro pitching, with age working in his favor as he didn't turn 21 until after the draft. He didn't quite find his footing in a short eight game stint at Low A Lakeland, where he hit .161/.235/.290 with an 18/3 strikeout to walk ratio.

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