Saturday, September 28, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Kansas City Royals

Full list of draftees

The Royals got things rolling with a bang, bringing in arguably the most exciting amateur player in the country in Jac Caglianone with their first pick. From there, it was overwhelmingly a pitching-heavy class, grabbing fourteen pitchers with their next sixteen picks. While Caglianone can hit triple digits with his fastball, many of the Royals pitching picks showed polish and deep arsenals with the ability to move quickly towards Kansas City. The class was also pretty straightforward in terms of the bonus pool, with no player coming in more than $200,000 above or $150,000 below slot value.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-6: 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida {hittingpitching}
Slot value: $7.21 million. Signing bonus: $7.5 million ($286,200 above slot value).
My rank: #4. MLB Pipeline: #3. Baseball America: #5.
If you've watched any college baseball at all, you know Jac Caglianone. If you don't, then you should know that "Cagliohtani" is one of the most fascinating prospects and quite possibly the greatest baseball talent in this draft. A gangly teenager at H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, alma mater of Wade Boggs, Kyle Tucker, Pete Alonso, and many others, he garnered considerable interest for the 2021 draft but followed Alonso's path to Florida, where he exploded as one of the top prospects in the game. After blasting 33 home runs in 71 games as a sophomore and slugging .738 in the process, he took another step forward and slashed a ridiculous .419/.544/.875 with 35 home runs in 66 games as a junior. The power is, frankly, silly. Caglianone has completely filled out his extra long frame and now clocks in at a hefty 6'6", 250 pounds, using those long arms and powerful torso to rip the bat through the zone with frightening force. He can effortlessly flick the ball out to any field, and even his mishits will carry over the fence, then when he really turns on one, he can flat out obliterate a baseball. This is gargantuan, 80 grade power, and you don't hit 68 home runs in 137 games over two seasons by accident. Heading into 2024, the primary wart in Caglianone's profile was his aggressive approach at the plate, leading to a suboptimal 18.2% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate a year ago. He remained ultra, ultra aggressive in 2024, chasing nearly 40% of the time, but he cleaned up the pure swing and miss in a big way and dropped his strikeout rate by more than half, all the way down to 8.2%. He actually has plus bat to ball skills, which combined with the wildly aggressive approach, still lead to an above average hit tool. Because he rarely misses in the zone, pitchers didn't give him much to hit and he still walked 18.4% of the time despite swinging at virtually everything. He recognizes spin and won't be fooled by professional offspeed stuff, though if you get him right you can blow a fastball by him up in the zone due to his long levers and therefore longer swing. There is 40 homer upside here, though it remains to be seen whether his approach gets him in trouble in pro ball in a way that it never did in the SEC. Defensively, he'll be limited to first base with the below average speed that naturally comes with weighing 250 pounds. That said, the Royals announced Caglianone as a two-way player and his arm talent alone could have landed him in the first round as well. He didn't pitch as a freshman, but he struck out 170 and made 34 starts over the last two seasons for the Gators and could easily become a major league starter if he focused on that aspect of his game. He throws a running mid 90's fastball that has hit triple digits (here's 99) with plenty of armside run, though the pitch lacks bat missing ride and relies on velocity to do so. The velocity has been inconsistent, which you might expect from a two-way guy, though he can work it into a cutter to get a different look. He throws a tight slider in the mid 80's that can approach 90 at his best, though it stands out more for its velocity than its movement, and he actually adds a pretty solid changeup that was a consistent, above average weapon for him in 2024. Caglianone comes from a big, crossfire delivery and doesn't always keep his long arms and legs in sync, leading to below average command, high walk rates, and inconsistent performance on the mound. There is no doubt in my mind that should he focus solely on pitching, he could tick up that command and get more consistent with his offspeed stuff, giving him the upside of a #2 or #3 starter. Given the lightning in his bat, though, that seems unlikely and his most likely path to stardom will be as a power hitting first baseman. Unsurprisingly, he didn't pitch in his pro debut after tossing 73.2 innings for Florida, but he did hit .241/.302/.388 with two home runs and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at High A Quad Cities.

2-41; LHP David Shields, Mount Lebanon HS [PA] {video}
Slot value: $2.28 million. Signing bonus: $2.3 million ($22,000 above slot value).
My rank: #61. MLB Pipeline: #41. Baseball America: #60.
Few teams love prep pitching like the Royals do, and David Shields was the big fish for them in this draft cycle and will head west to Kansas City rather than south to follow his Miami commitment. While explosive fastballs and wipeout breaking balls are all the rage right now, Shields represents more of a traditional high school pitching prospect. His fastball sits around 90 and only tops out at 94, though it does play up with running and riding action. His best pitch is a deep slider that shows very nice finish and looks above average, while his solid changeup gives him a third big league pitch. For now, everything plays up because Shields commands the ball well and can execute on both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, overwhelming high school hitters and likely easing the transition to pro ball. The 6'2" lefty has a simple, repeatable delivery and brings quarterback athleticism to the mound, making for a very well-rounded profile. The next step will be adding power across his arsenal, which with the projection remaining on his athletic frame and his extreme youth (he did not turn 18 until more than a month after the draft), seems highly likely. If Shields can get to something like the 92-94 range on his fastball and bump his slider into the mid 80's, he has #2 or #3 starter upside. If not, he'll settle in as more of a back-end innings eater type.

3-76: RHP Drew Beam, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $1.03 million. Signing bonus: $1.1 million ($69,800 above slot value).
My rank: #54. MLB Pipeline: #64. Baseball America: #41.
Drew Beam brings a very interesting combination of stuff and polish, and he's a really nice get that I did not think would be available on day two of the draft. He has been a force to be reckoned with in the Tennessee rotation for three years now, making 51 starts and tossing 262.2 innings for the Vols while facing over a thousand hitters. The ERA did go up each year, and he wasn't always at his best in 2024, but he'll take the ball every turn in the rotation and give you length. And when he's on, he looks like a surefire big league starter. Beam sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball but can reach back for 98 at peak, though as more of a running fastball than a riding one from a high release point it plays down a bit from that velocity. He can sink it or cut it as needed, though those variations are mostly average and he relies mostly on commanding the ball. He can work the cutter into more of a true slider to pick up a little extra sweep, though his primary breaking ball is a deep two-plane curveball that does a great job of freezing hitters and stealing strikes. Beam rounds things out with a changeup that could be above average with a little refinement, giving him a deep arsenal with which to attack hitters. The 6'4" righty is extremely durable and throws with a clean, repeatable delivery that helps him pound the strike zone with plus control, though his command is more average and he can get hit over the plate. You could argue that Beam's delivery lacks some deception, which in combination with the average stuff led to an unremarkable 22.7% strikeout rate this year. He stands out as a potential #4 starter who can eat innings, work his way through lineups, and keep hitters off balance while attacking the zone and running his fastball consistently into the mid 90's, while scouts also praise his makeup, baseball IQ, and mound presence. This is an old school bulldog starting pitcher.

4-105: RHP LP Langevin, Louisiana {video}
Slot value: $696,300. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($98,800 below slot value).
My rank: #148. MLB Pipeline: #230. Baseball America: #155.
If Drew Beam is an old school pitching prospect, then LP Langevin is new school to the max. A Quebec City native, he spent two years at Wabash Valley JC in southern Illinois before transferring to Louisiana this year, where he pitched mostly in long relief and at times looked downright dominant. During a ten appearance stretch from March 19th to April 26th, he allowed just two earned runs over 24.2 innings (0.73 ERA) while allowing just six hits and five walks (0.45 WHIP) and striking out 51 of the 88 batters he faced (58%!). Langevin finds his success on the back of an elite fastball, one which sits in the low to mid 90's in relief with peaks around 96 but which plays up with wicked running and riding action from a low release point. The pitch was so deceptive that it ran some of the best whiff rates in the country, completely overwhelming Sun Belt hitters and later MLB Draft League hitters this summer. Right now, the fastball is the show, as his slider and changeup are more change of pace options than anything else. The slider gets short, tight bite and the changeup shows some fade, but neither are true strikeout pitches and he leans heavily on the fastball. Langevin also commands his fastball much better than his offspeeds, and with some effort in his delivery he likely profiles as a reliever long term. If the Royals can do something with his secondary pitches, he could become an impact relief arm and chew through big league hitters, but just the fastball alone should get him to the majors in some capacity. He was very young for the class, only turning 21 shortly before the draft.

5-138: RHP AJ Causey, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $505,000. Signing bonus: $477,500 ($27,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #242. Baseball America: #435.
Not only will Drew Beam and AJ Causey travel from Knoxville to Kansas City together, they actually grew up playing travel ball together. Causey spent his first two college seasons at Jacksonville State, then transferred to Tennessee and worked in a variety of roles for the Vols, tying for the NCAA Division I lead with thirteen wins. He's a sidearmer that sits around 90 with his fastball, touching 93 with a ton of running action. He works his breaking ball between a curveball and a slider, with both showing big, deep sweep across the plate despite a lack of power. He turns over an excellent changeup as well, giving him the ability to get both lefties and righties out unlike many sidearmers. Command is another selling point, as Causey works back and forth across the plate extremely well and walked just 5.9% of the batters he faced across three years in college. That gives him a much, much better chance to start than the typical sidearmer, as does his durability and his ability to repeat his funky delivery. The delivery is funky beyond just the slot, as the 6'3" righty actually comes across his body and strides towards first base, not the plate, creating separation between his upper and lower halves to whip the ball to the plate. If Causey could add a little power across his arsenal, he could be a weapon at the big league level, but even as is he has a shot to work his way up as a back-end starter or long reliever. This is a nice sleeper for the Royals.

6-167: RHP Tanner Jones, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $382,100. Signing bonus: $379,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #484.
Like AJ Causey, Tanner Jones started off with two years at Jacksonville State, then transferred to the SEC. Jones didn't have the same success at Texas A&M that Causey found at Tennessee, but he'll join his former teammate in Kansas City nonetheless. Jones is a very different pitcher, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching 97 with his fastball, which plays up further because he gets great extension down the mound to create a low release point. He has a hard cutter in the upper 80's that looks like a potential above average pitch and plays nicely off his fastball, though when he loosens it into a more traditional sweeper it doesn't miss many bats. Jones rounds things out with a changeup, which projects as average. The 6'2" righty is a solid strike thrower that doesn't hurt himself with walks, and that combined with his deep arsenal and sturdy frame gives him a chance to start. At this point, he needs to find a way to miss more bats with his secondary stuff if he wants to remain in that role, and probably does look more like a reliever long term. Jones' arm strength and extension are the draws here and the Royals will look to bring that secondary stuff along.

10-287: LHP Nate Ackenhausen, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $186,200. Signing bonus: $47,500 ($138,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Nate Ackenhausen brings a semi-local arm to Kansas City. He grew up in Owasso, Oklahoma, a northeastern suburb of Tulsa, where he attended Owasso High School before moving on to Eastern Oklahoma State JC in Wilburton. After two downright dominant seasons with the Mountaineers, he transferred to LSU and was a valuable swingman for two years in Baton Rouge. Ackenhausen works with a low 90's fastball that gets up to around 94-95, then adds a full arsenal of secondaries including a slider, curveball, and changeup. Nothing stands out as plus, and he also doesn't have pinpoint command with walk rates north of 10% both years in Baton Rouge. Instead, the crafty lefty relies on changing speeds and executing all four pitches, working to stay ahead in counts and forcing hitters to come up empty on their swings more than they might expect. He's a big, burley lefty at a listed 6'2", 255 pounds, looking plenty durable to handle the rigors of pro ball. Given the lack of a standout pitch in his arsenal as well as his advanced age (he turned 23 a couple months after the draft), Ackenhausen fits better in long relief than in a starting role, but he could move very quickly as a polished college arm with plenty of big game experience.

14-407: RHP Kyle DeGroat, Wallkill HS [NY] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($197,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #239. Baseball America: unranked.
With a little extra money to throw around, the Royals picked up another interesting young prep arm from New York's Hudson Valley region in the fourteenth round, signing him away from a Texas commitment for sixth round money. Kyle DeGroat is an up arrow guy that has gotten more physical and added power across his arsenal, now looking like a legitimate starting pitching prospect. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95 at peak, with running and riding action to carry it past barrels. He snaps off a tight slider with late bite that could become an above average pitch in time as he refines it further. DeGroat adds in a changeup, though he doesn't use it much and will need to build it up in pro ball. The 6'1" righty has a physical frame, hides the ball well, and looks the part of a big league starting pitcher. While there's no outlier trait here, DeGroat does a lot well and gives the Royals a broad array of starter traits to work with. He's got increased physicality, he gets good movement on his fastball, and has shown increasing aptitude for offspeed while throwing strikes.

18-527: OF Corey Cousin, Slidell HS [LA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($197,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Royals made one last big splash by signing Corey Cousin to the same sixth round signing bonus at Kyle DeGroat, one of the few position players in this class for Kansas City. Previously committed to Oklahoma much like current superstar Bobby Witt, he brings big time upside not often found this late in the draft. Cousins is a strong athlete oozing with tools, showing good power from a whippy right handed swing that could grow into above average or plus as he fills out his 6' frame. He makes plenty of contact for now, and could really grow into a complete hitter, though his track record against top competition is more limited. He's also a plus runner with the chance to man center field for the Royals, and his fastball has been up to 91 on the mound. Cousin won't pitch for the Royals, but quitting pitching and focusing on hitting could push his overall game forward quicker than others. The New Orleans-area product is also very young for the class, not turning 18 until more than two months after the draft, so he really is an intriguing ball of clay for the Royals to mold. Cousin has a long way to go and is far from a guarantee to reach Kauffman Stadium, but he could impact the game in a lot of ways if things do click.

No comments:

Post a Comment