Saturday, September 14, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Boston Red Sox

Full list of draftees

I thought this was a really interesting draft for Boston. They started things off with the power hitting Braden Montgomery, who was projected as high as the top five picks at times this spring, then completely shifted their draft philosophy from there. After Montgomery, it was fourteen pitchers (including two way players) out of nineteen picks, often with a heavy emphasis on unique fastballs that they can get creative with developmentally. The few hitters they did target were not power hitters like Montgomery, rather contact-driven profiles where the Red Sox think they can bring out additional thump to go with high batting averages and on-base percentages. They also saved money on most picks so they could push all of their over-slot chips in on eighth rounder Conrad Cason, an electric two-way prep star.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-12: OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $5.48 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($484,600 below slot value).
My rank: #8. MLB Pipeline: #8. Baseball America: #7.
It was already a surprise that Braden Montgomery lasted until the Red Sox' pick at #12, and the fact that they got him for half a million under slot value makes this an absolute steal. In Montgomery, Boston may be getting a legitimate top five talent in the class. He was a highly regarded two-way prep prospect in the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2021, earning significant top 100 interest as both a hitter and a pitcher, but as a strong student as well was expected to be a difficult sign away from Stanford. In Palo Alto, Montgomery immediately blasted eighteen home runs as a true freshman and struck out 28 in 18.2 innings. He elevated his profile further with a huge sophomore season at the plate that put him squarely in the first round conversation, while his command took a step backwards. Upon transferring to Texas A&M for his junior year in 2024, he all but gave up pitching to focus on becoming one of the very best hitters in the nation. And boy did he, blasting 27 home runs and slashing .322/.454/.733 along the way before a fractured ankle in super regionals ended his season. Montgomery is a switch hitter with smooth, majestic swings from both sides of the plate. Built rock solid at 6'2", 220 pounds, his natural strength helps him produce massive raw power without selling out, leading to more than a few light tower moonshots this season that may pose a danger to any Goodyear blimps floating outside. He has always been power over hit, but he has really cleaned up his approach in school and increased his walk rate from 6.5% as a freshman to 16.5% as a sophomore to 18.0% as a junior. Previously over aggressive at the plate, he now has a more balanced approach and does a good job controlling the strike zone. If there was one knock against him in the context of the top of the first round, it was a contact rate that was a bit lower than his contemporaries vying for that top handful of picks. His improved approach makes that less of an issue, but he still does whiff more than you'd like in the zone. That majestic power, though, is hard to pass up. Montgomery isn't much of a runner and will be limited to a corner outfield spot, but he has a true 80 grade arm that you have to see to believe. That makes him a weapon in right field that can completely shut down the running game from 300+ feet away. At this point, Montgomery is not going back to pitching but he does have interesting stuff on the mound. His fastball reaches 98 in short stints with tremendous riding action out of a low slot, making it a bit of a unicorn pitch, but his command has simply never materialized. The Red Sox were at their best with David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez hitting in the middle of the lineup, and now they could use a new franchise bat to join Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers in this generation's iteration.

2-50: LHP Payton Tolle, Texas Christian {video}
Slot value: $1.85 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($153,600 above slot value).
My rank: #66. MLB Pipeline: #87. Baseball America: #82.
This is a really interesting pick to me. Payton Tolle got drafted about a dozen or two picks before he was projected, then got a little extra on top for his signing bonus. Tolle began his career as a two-way player at Wichita State, where he hit .313/.359/.516 with sixteen home runs while also going 13-9 with a 4.56 ERA on the mound over two seasons. When he transferred to TCU for his junior season, the Horned Frogs expected him to anchor down the middle of their lineup while also contributing a little on the mound. Instead, they got the opposite as he hit just .182/.303/.327 with a pair of home runs but was meanwhile named the Big 12 Pitcher of the Year while tying for eleventh in the nation striking out 125 hitters. Tolle is a very interesting pitching prospect. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, which is nice velocity but nothing overwhelming, but it plays way above its velocity because he gets elite extension down the mound. He's a huge guy at 6'6", 250 pounds and when he rumbles down that mound and gets out over his plant foot, he's releasing the ball right in front of the hitter's face. The fastball is the show stealer, and the Red Sox will want to bring his secondaries a long a little bit. His slider can vary in shape, looking softer and deeper at times and tighter and harder at others. He has nice feel for a changeup, though he doesn't use it a ton and will need to better incorporate it against pro hitters. Tolle's size, extension, and handedness give him an elite fastball that you just won't find anywhere else, and the rest you can figure out later. The Oklahoma City-area native doesn't have pinpoint command, but he uses his size effectively to repeat his delivery well and just kind of slings the ball in there, filling up the zone with plenty of strikes and letting the carry on his fastball eat its way through the zone. He's a fun prospect to follow.

3-86: RHP Brandon Neely, Florida {video}
Slot value: $878,800. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($178,800 below slot value).
My rank: #89. MLB Pipeline: #193. Baseball America: #212.
I feel vindicated on this one. Amid Brandon Neely's strong finish to the season, I shot him way up my draft board into the top one hundred, then was surprised to see most major outlets leave him deep into day two range. The Red Sox wound up taking him right near the start of day three, and I love the pick. Neely was a well-known prospect out of Spruce Creek High School in the Daytona Beach area, where he was teammates with Rockies 2020 first round pick Zac Veen, but made it to campus at Florida where Veen had also been committed. Contending with a deep Florida pitching staff, Neely showed well as a swingman as a freshman in 2022 and worked out of the bullpen in 2023, then hit a rough stretch in 2024 that put his season ERA up to 6.97 as late as mid-May. Florida really should not have made the NCAA Tournament after going just 28-27 prior to regionals, but they snuck in anyways and that committee decision probably doubled Neely's signing bonus. Perhaps no player on that team, I'd argue not even Jac Caglianone (who hit .444 with six home runs in eleven games), did as much to power Florida's improbable run to the College World Series as Brandon Neely. Appearing in seven of Florida's eleven games, he allowed just five runs over 24 innings (1.88 ERA) with an excellent 32/6 strikeout to walk ratio against the best competition college baseball had to offer. The stuff looked crisper than ever, and it was good enough to vault way up my draft board. The fastball can sit in the low to mid 90's and touch 97 in short stints, jumping on hitters with a ton of running life from an excellent release point. The 6'3" righty explodes down the mound extremely well with well above average extension and a low release point that makes the fastball's average riding life look all the more explosive, helping him regularly overwhelm hitters as it eats through the top of the zone. His sharp, power slider gets into the upper 80's and stands out more for its velocity than its movement, though it has the potential to be an above average pitch, while his curveball is more of a fringy strike stealer and his changeup looks average. Neely is an explosive athlete that pounds the strike zone with conviction, making all of his pitches play up despite average command as he's not afraid to go right after hitters. Though he has mostly pitched in relief for the Gators, he has a chance to start in pro ball with his lean, athletic frame, deep arsenal, and ability to throw strikes. If he has to move back to the bullpen, he thrives in high pressure situations and will be able to focus on his fastball/slider combination. This will be a fun follow.

4-115: OF Zach Ehrhard, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $630,900. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($130,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #221. Baseball America: #399.
The Red Sox drafted Zach Ehrhard out of high school in 2021, failed to sign him, and now they're back to swoop in once more. He hit .332 as a freshman but otherwise did not show much impact over his first two years at Oklahoma State, collecting just seventeen extra base hits in 100 games, then exploded for forty in 61 games in 2024. Ehrhard is still a contact hitter first and foremost, and a dang good one. He's extremely patient at the plate and draws a ton of walks, helping him post an excellent .458 on-base percentage in 2024, but on top of that he makes a ton of contact both inside and, on the rare occasions he does chase, outside the zone, so it's really hard to get the ball by him. While he's not huge at 5'11" and his top end exit velocities point to below average raw power, he can get the ball out when he turns on it and his tight right handed swing has gotten better and better at helping him do just that. If he continues to maximize his raw power in games, he could profile for 10-15 home runs per season at best to go with high on-base percentages. The Tampa native is a plus runner with every shot to stick in center field, which would help his bat profile much better given its hit-over-power nature. Ultimately, Ehrhard probably profiles best as a fourth outfielder but the underlying metrics do point to more upside. The Red Sox aggressively pushed him to High A Greenville, where he struggled to hit for impact and slashed .156/.264/.195 with a 25/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games.

5-148: LHP Brandon Clarke, State College of Florida {video}
Slot value: $457,900. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($157,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #177. Baseball America: #289.
Brandon Clarke represents yet another draftee who was a hot commodity in high school. He had Tommy John surgery as a junior and came out of the gates hot once he got healthy as a senior, but couldn't quite maintain that flash in the pan and began a multi-year slide. He didn't pitch as a freshman at Alabama with some nagging injuries, then barely pitched as a sophomore upon transferring to the State College of Florida in Bradenton. Having fallen out of the prospect radar for the most part, he bounced back for a strong season in 2024 and the Red Sox fully believe the real Brandon Clarke is back. He's a long, lanky lefty at 6'4" that has now grown into his body, sitting in the low to mid 90's and reaching the upper 90's with his fastball. His curveball and changeup are less consistent, so at this point, the fastball is the show stealer. Clarke has a ton of arm strength and a deliberate delivery that slows down just a bit right before he plants. He used to violently rip through the rest of delivery shortly after that slowdown, but has gotten more under control in 2024 which brought his walk rate back into reasonable territory. The Northern Virginia native is still very raw on the mound and the Red Sox will have to be patient with his development. He'll need to refine his feel for his secondaries while continuing to make strides with his command, which remains below average despite its improvement. There's heavy relief risk here but that kind of arm talent is especially hard to find from the left side and the Red Sox will take their chances that they can bring the rest of his game along.

7-207: OF Will Turner, South Alabama {video}
Slot value: $274,600. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($24,600 below slot value).
My rank: #180. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #177.
The Red Sox are buying low on Will Turner in hopes that 2024 was an aberration. He jumped straight into South Alabama's starting lineup as a true freshman in 2022 then broke out for a huge sophomore season, pushing himself squarely into the second round conversation with many designating him as a favorite sleeper. Unfortunately, his 2024 turned out to be everything he didn't need. After seeing him whack .349/.460/.591 a year ago, pitchers simply stopped throwing to Turner this year and he walked a whopping 20.9% of the time, but didn't do much damage when he did get pitches to hit. The approach is impeccable, with some of the lowest chase rates in this entire draft class that played both against Sun Belt pitching as well as against elite pitching in the Cape Cod League last summer. Meanwhile, he shows solid average bat to ball ability when he does swing, but he can get overly passive at times and get himself in trouble. His strong eye at the plate also helps him recognize pitches he can turn on, giving him moderate pop to the pull side, but the overall power is below average as he did not grow into the additional power scouts hoped for this spring. It's going to be a walk-driven profile that shows high on-base percentages at minimum, but he'll have to find a way to produce more impact at the plate if he'll want to play every day. Turner's glove will help him, as he's an above average runner and a strong overall defender in center field that has a chance to stick there in pro ball. The Alabama native most likely profiles as a high on-base fourth outfielder that can play all three outfield positions easily. He struggled mightily with an aggressive assignment to High A Greenville, where he hit a paltry .081/.250/.122 in 23 games but continued to show off his patience with fourteen walks.

8-237: SS/RHP Conrad Cason, Greater Atlanta Christian HS [GA] {batting, pitching}
Slot value: $219,900. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($1.03 million above slot value).
My rank: #105. MLB Pipeline: #102. Baseball America: #124.
Aside from second rounder Peyton Tolle, the Red Sox saved a little bit on seven of their first eight picks so they could cash it all in right here on Conrad Cason, an electric two-way player from the Atlanta area. Initially committed to Mississippi State, the Red Sox handed him roughly the slot value for the #66 pick here in the eighth round to come north instead. Cason is not short of talent. For most of his prep career, he has been primarily known as a pitcher. The fastball sits low to mid 90's and touches 99 at peak, coming in with lightning quick arm speed that helps him generate that velocity naturally. He has a power slider that can get a bit firm at times, showing more power than true finish, while his changeup actually looks to be the more advanced secondary pitch with nice fading action at times. It all comes from an uptempo delivery that features some effort, which the Red Sox will look to smooth out in time. Cason is such a tremendous athlete that he should be able to continue to access his velocity regardless. Meanwhile, he has actually shown a strong desire to hit, and the Red Sox will allow him to continue to do that in pro ball. He's raw as a hitter and most scouts preferred him as a pitcher, but an impressive performance at the MLB Draft Combine in June likely sold Boston. His right handed swing is as explosive as they come, leading to big raw power, but he'll have to show he can make consistent contact against higher level pitching to tap it. His plus arm also helps him at shortstop, which combined with his athleticism means he has a shot to stick there long term if he focuses on that craft. Cason is extremely young for the class, having still been 17 on draft day, giving him and the Red Sox lots of time to figure out which direction to develop. He'll do both for now, but once he drops either hitting or pitching, he has a chance to explode as a prospect.

9-267: C Hudson White, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $194,600. Signing bonus: $185,000 ($9,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #318.
Texas Tech was really excited to get Hudson White to campus for his 2022 freshman season, and he jumped right in as the Red Raiders' starting catcher. His bat took a step forward in 2023, then he transferred back east to Arkansas where he had a solid if unspectacular season. He is a very high contact type that has struck out in just 14.7% of his plate appearances over his three year career, having shown a disciplined approach and strong bat to ball ability from a very young age and for a very long time. Solidly built at 6'1", 200 pounds, he has more strength than bat speed and only produces modest exit velocities, with his fringy game power coming more from his ability to square the ball up and lift it. A 25 game run through the Cape Cod League last summer sheds some light on his offensive game as well, as he hit .161/.316/.258 but with a very respectable 16/13 strikeout to walk ratio. The Red Sox will look to deploy White's strong hitting acumen into more impact at the next level. Meanwhile, he's a solid defender behind the plate that should be able to stick there long term, with average ability all-around. That glove makes his bat look a lot better, and if he can continue getting on base while showing just enough thump to keep pitchers honest, he could be a very good backup catcher or potential platoon guy in the long run. His brief stint at High A Greenville was fairly similar to his Cape stint, hitting .167/.324/.167 with a 21/11 strikeout to walk ratio over eighteen games.

10-297: LHP Devin Futrell, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $182,800. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($67,200 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #210.
Devin Futrell, like Hudson White, is a three year college performer that found success immediately as a true freshman. Futrell jumped straight into Vanderbilt's rotation in 2022 and has made 38 starts in three seasons for the Commodores, going 21-7 with a 3.92 ERA and a 180/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 195.1 innings, very nice numbers going up against strong SEC competition in an era of heightened offense. The stuff is largely ordinary. His fastball sits around 90, topping out at 94, and playing up a bit with some riding action. His slider works well when he locates it but ultimately shows fringy bite, while his average changeup plays well off his other pitches with solid fading action but it isn't a strikeout pitch in its own right. Futrell thrives, though, on pitchability. The towering 6'5" lefty shows plus command and can execute any of his pitches to all parts of the zone, helping each of them play to their full potential. He consistently works ahead in counts and creates weak contact by keeping hitters off balance, and has just a 5.3% walk rate for his career – an elite mark. Futrell's size and simple, repeatable delivery make him a very clear starting pitching candidate, but his command will have to hold together completely in order to rise through the minors in that role. Adding a bit of power to his stuff would help as well, with the ceiling of a #5 starter or long reliever.

12-357: RHP Brady Tygart, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($150,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: #189. MLB Pipeline: #181. Baseball America: #175.
With some money left over on day three, the Red Sox dipped in a little bit to grab Hudson White's teammate, Brady Tygart, for early seventh round money. Tygart has worked his way up through Arkansas' pitching ranks, beginning as a reliever in 2022 before working in a swingman role in 2023 and joining the rotation full time in 2024. He has a low 90's fastball that touches 95 as a starter and 97 in relief, though it plays pretty true and plays closer to average. He stands out most for his feel for spin, showing a plus curveball with nasty deep bite that misses a ton of bats. His slider flashes plus as well at its best, generating plenty of chases down below the zone, and he shows strong feel to execute them as well. There's a changeup as well, though its firm and looks like a fringy pitch. Tygart doesn't have the world's most athletic delivery, with a tall and fall motion and average extension despite a taller 6'2" frame. His command has been inconsistent in Fayetteville and he may fit better in the bullpen, where he can lean heavily on his breaking balls. We'll see if the Red Sox choose to stretch him out but I like him best in that latter role.

13-387: LHP Shea Sprague, North Carolina {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $155,000 ($5,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
We've seen guys like Matt Barnes (Bethel, CT) and Rich Hill (Milton, MA) suit up for Boston, but ultimately the list of recent New Englanders to play for the Red Sox isn't an extensive one. Shea Sprague will look to be the next. He grew up in Hanover, Massachusetts, about twenty miles south of downtown Boston, and attended Boston College High School next door to UMass Boston on Columbia Point. From there, he headed down south and pitched two years at Elon, where he dominated the CAA and earned an opportunity to transfer down the road to UNC. After a strong season in the Tar Heel rotation, he's now coming back home. Sprague doesn't throw very hard, usually sitting on the south side of 90 with his sinking fastball, but the pitch plays way up because he gets elite extension from a low three quarters slot and slices across the plate. His deep sweeper plays well from that slot, while he effectively deploys his changeup to get something moving arm side and neutralize right handed hitters. He's strong and durable at 6'3" and fills up the strike zone with a ton of strikes, which gives him a chance to start. He'll have to bring his secondaries along and maintain his command to do so because the low velocity does not give him much room for error, or he could slot into the bullpen and hopefully tick that fastball up over 90 more consistently. Regardless, it's a pretty unique profile that the Red Sox can get creative with.

19-567: 3B D'Angelo Ortiz, Miami Dade JC [FL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
If the name sounds familiar, that's because it is. D'Angelo Ortiz is indeed the son of Hall of Famer David Ortiz, and now he's joining the same organization his father was so instrumental in. The younger Ortiz played high school ball at Westminster Christian High School in the Miami area, alma mater of Alex Rodriguez among many others, then spent one year at Miami Dade JC. Ortiz is a very different player than his father, coming in two inches shorter forty pounds lighter, and right handed, and he hit just one home run for the Sharks this year. Instead, he found success by spraying line drives around the park with a high contact approach that helped him hit .377 with just a 9.8% strikeout rate. He has a lot of moving parts in his load with a big leg kick and a bit of a barrel tilt, and also has additional projection remaining as he fills out that 6'1" frame. He was drafted as a third baseman and also has experience in the outfield.

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