Cardinals Acquire Paul Goldschmidt

Cardinals Get
1B Paul Goldschmidt (2019 Age: 31): 33 HR, .290/.389/.533, 7 SB, 145 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR

Diamondbacks Get
RHP Luke Weaver (2019 Age: 25): 7-11, 4.95 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 121/54 K/BB, 136.1 IP
C Carson Kelly (2019 Age: 24-25): 0 HR, .114/.205/.114, 0 SB, -4 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR
2B Andy Young (2019 Age: 25): 21 HR, .289/.379/.479, 4 SB, 144 wRC+ at High A/AA
2019 Competitive Balance Round B draft pick (after second round)

Cardinals Perspective
I really like this trade for the Cardinals. They got the centerpiece bat they have been lacking since the departure of Albert Pujols in 2011 (unless you count 2012-2013 Matt Holliday), and they didn't give up any important long term pieces to get it. Luke Weaver was a nice arm, but he had no place in a crowded Cardinals rotation, while Carson Kelly was stuck behind Yadier Molina. Paul Goldschmidt will now bring his consistent 30 HR/.400 OBP bat to St. Louis, pushing Matt Carpenter back to third base and Jose Martinez back into a wait-and-see role, ready to take over if anybody gets hurt in the outfield. Previously, a Carpenter/Marcell Ozuna/Paul DeJong/Jose Martinez offensive core looked pretty decent, but with Goldschmidt in the fold, it looks like one that could content for the NL Central title. Goldschmidt himself is coming off a big year in which he slashed .290/.389/.533 with 33 home runs despite Arizona's implementation of the humidor, which suppresses offense, and at 31 I doubt there is any sort of significant decline just yet. He's due $14.5 million in 2019 before hitting free agency after the season, so although the Cardinals would like to have him for more than one season, $14.5 million is a very good bargain for a five win bat like his. For his career, the Houston area native has 209 home runs, a .297/.398/.532 slash line, 132 stolen bases, and 36.3 fWAR over 1092 games since 2011.

Diamondbacks Perspective
It's a fairly unique return for the D-Backs, because instead of getting prospects in return for their star first baseman, they brought on two major leaguers with long-term team control with one fringe prospect and a draft pick. This is consistent with Arizona's win-now strategy (or at least as consistent as possible given that they're sending their star to St. Louis), as Weaver and Kelly can help the team on Opening Day in 2019. For a team without a good farm system, having that kind of controllable, long-term talent can help extend their period of contention more than Goldschmidt, who is set to become a free agent after 2019. Luke Weaver is the centerpiece as a 25 year old starter with mixed success so far at the major league level. He had a 3.88 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over a 60.1 inning sample in 2017, but when he more than doubled that to 136.1 innings in 2018, his ERA jumped to 4.95 and his WHIP to 1.50. His strikeout rate dropped from 28.6% to 19.9% while his walk rate jumped from 6.8% to 8.9%, all of which altered his long-term projection. There was nothing in his Statcast profile, at least from his perspective, that really foreshadowed this regression; opponents just hit him harder as they got to him as a pitcher. In that case, it would be in Weaver's best interest to counter-adjust and give hitters a different look in 2019. The Diamondbacks sure hope he does, because he is under team control through the 2023 season. For 2019, he looks to replace Patrick Corbin in what is looking like a thin but effective rotation with Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Zack Godley. For his career, the former Florida State Seminole is 15-17 with a 4.79 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 238/83 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games (43 starts) since 2016. Carson Kelly helps out a thin catching corps, which is currently led by Alex Avila and John Ryan Murphy. While his career MLB numbers look somewhat frightening (0 HR, .154/.227/.188 in 63 games), the 24 year old has the potential to be Arizona's starting catcher in 2019. While he has struggled in short, choppy stints in the majors, he has 17 home runs, a .275/.377/.424 slash line, and an 88/81 strikeout to walk ratio over 151 games at AAA Memphis over the past two seasons. While I don't think he'll be pushing .400 with his on-base percentages in the majors, the advanced plate discipline and present power make for a solid offensive skill set for a catcher, and his defense is so good that he should have no trouble starting if he can hit at all. He hasn't hit – at all – since reaching the majors, but with Yadier Molina out of his way and regular playing time more of a likelihood, he should be able to find his stroke and become the Diamondbacks' long term starter behind the plate. Like Weaver, he's under contract through 2023. Lastly, Andy Young is a bit of a throw-in, a wild card who could be nothing more than a bench bat or as good as a starting second baseman. A 37th round pick as a senior out of Indiana State in 2016, he has hit everywhere he has been and reached the upper minors in 2018. Starting at High A Palm Beach, he slashed .276/.372/.444 with 12 home runs and a nice 59/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games, showing good bat control and feel for the barrel. He was promoted to AA Springfield in July and caught fire, slashing .319/.395/.556 with nine home runs and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games, showing even more feel for the barrel during his hot stretch to close out the season. He's a quintessential Cardinals prospect, one who comes from relative obscurity and just never slows down with the bat. It's important to remember that he has been older than most of the competition he has faced, as he turns 25 in May and is older than Carson Kelly, so conventional wisdom would peg him as a utility infielder. However, with these out-of-nowhere Cardinals guys, don't underestimate him just yet.