Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin

Patrick Corbin (2019 Age: 29-30): 11-7, 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 246/48 K/BB, 200 IP
Six years, $140 million

The Nationals added the top arm on the market in Patrick Corbin, and with a $140 million contract, he's only the third highest paid pitcher in the Nationals' rotation behind Max Scherzer ($210 million) and Stephen Strasburg ($175 million). The front three of Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin is now one of the best in baseball, with Tanner Roark and Joe Ross looking like the fourth and fifth starters if the Nationals do not add another arm. They probably will given Strasburg's and Ross's health issues, with Erick Fedde the current next man up. As for Corbin, he has had a roller coaster of a career so far, kicking off with a huge 2013 season in which he posted a 3.41 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 178/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 208.1 innings. He went down with Tommy John surgery immediately afterwards and missed the 2014 season and half of 2015, was mediocre in 2016 (5.15 ERA), pretty decent in 2017 (4.03 ERA), and great in 2018. This past year, he posted a 3.15 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an excellent 246/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 200 innings, his 30.8% strikeout rate finishing seventh among qualified starters and third among NL starters. His 246 total strikeouts were fifth overall. He actually hasn't gained any velocity, but his slider has been inducing more and more swings and misses and has become a truly elite pitch. I see him settling in as a quality #2 caliber pitcher for the next couple of seasons before regressing to a mid-rotation level in the back half of his deal. He's still fairly young as far as free agents go, not turning 30 until mid-season, meaning he will be under contract through his age 35-36 season in 2024. For his career, the Syracuse native is 56-54 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an 897/271 strikeout to walk ratio over 172 games (154 starts) since 2012.

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