Sunday, December 2, 2018

Notable Non-Tenders, Now Free Agents

Friday was the deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players, and while most impact players are tendered contracts, many get non-tendered and become free agents. Let's take a look at the most notable new free agents.

1. 2B Jonathan Schoop (2019 Age: 27): 21 HR, .233/.266/.416, 1 SB, 80 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR
Schoop was projected to earn something in the $9-10 million range, so the Brewers cut him loose and needy teams have an opportunity to pick up a legitimate starting second baseman. He was much better in 2017 (32 HR, .293/.338/.503) than in 2018 (21 HR, .233/.266/.416), but the power is real and it makes him a productive player. However, he rarely walks so his value is fully dependent on his power. For his career, the Curacao native has 110 home runs, a .258/.294/.444 slash line, and 8.2 fWAR over 681 games since 2013.

2. 1B Justin Bour (2019 Age: 30-31): 20 HR, .227/.341/.404, 2 SB, 107 wRC+. 0.5 fWAR
Bour is another player coming off a down season, dropping from a big 2017 (25 HR, .289/.366/.536) to a disappointing 2018 (20 HR, .227/.341/.404). He's still a good hitter who can hit for power and get on base, though the standard for offense is obviously quite high for first basemen. He could get picked up as a DH or a platoon bat at first base, as he hits right handed pitchers well. For his career, the Northern Virginia native has 84 home runs, a .260/.344/.466 slash line, and 4.8 fWAR over 507 games since 2014.

3. IF Wilmer Flores (2019 Age: 27-28): 11 HR, .267/.319/.417, 0 SB, 103 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR
Wilmer Flores is the classic super-utility bat, an average hitting, average defending guy who can play any position you want him to. He's basically your discount Marwin Gonzalez. Flores has been surprisingly consistent over his career, and in 2018 he slashed .267/.319/.417 with 11 home runs over 126 games; those numbers don't make a star, but he gets on base enough and hits for enough power to the point where he's not a liability in the lineup, and that's the best you can hope for from your utility man. For his career, the Venezuelan has 68 home runs, a .262/.303/.424 slash line, and 5.2 fWAR over 581 games since 2013.

4. OF Avisail Garcia (2019 Age: 27-28): 19 HR, .236/.281/.438, 3 SB, 92 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR
Garcia has been, for the most part, a moderately streaky, fringe-starter type of outfielder throughout his career. The exception is 2017, when he broke out to slash .330/.380/.506 with 18 home runs for the White Sox, but everything dropped about 100 points as he slashed .236/.281/.438 with 19 home runs in an injury-shortened 2018. I think the non-2017 Avisail is the real one, so he could be a platoon bat for a contending team or a starter for a non-contending team. As a right handed hitter, he has been much more effective against left handed pitchers (.304/.358/.457) than against right handers (.259/.308/.408) throughout his career. For his career, the Venezuelan has 76 home runs, a .271/.321/.420 slash line, and 4.2 fWAR over 638 games since 2012.

5. OF Billy Hamilton (2019 Age: 28): 4 HR, .236/.299/.327, 34 SB, 69 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR
Probably the most well known player to be non-tendered this offseason, Billy Hamilton is difficult to place a value on. He can't hit, with neither the ability to get on base or hit for power, but oh boy can he run. He's among the fastest players in the entire league, and that speed makes him elite both on the basepaths and in the outfield. His Statcast sprint speed of 30.1 MPH puts him fifth in all of baseball, behind only Byron Buxton (30.5 MPH), Roman Quinn (30.2), Magneuris Sierra (30.2), and Adam Engel (30.1). From 2014-2017, he added one stolen base onto his total every season, stealing 56, 57, 58, and 59 bases, though he dropped to 34 in 2018. On defense, he was fifth among all MLB outfielders in 2018 with 16 outs above average (per Statcast). He's not much better than a pitcher in the batters' box, but once he gets out he's hard to stop. For his career, the Mississippi native has 21 home runs, a .245/.298/.333 slash line, 277 stolen bases, and 10.0 fWAR over 690 games since 2013.

6. RHP Mike Fiers (2019 Age: 33-34): 12-8, 3.56 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 139/37 K/BB, 172 IP
Fiers had a bounceback season in 2018, dropping his ERA from 5.22 in 2017 to 3.56 in 2018 and his WHIP from 1.43 to 1.18, looking like a legitimate mid-rotation starter in the process. He has been moderately inconsistent throughout his career, and because he turns 34 in June, I don't know that I would count on him to keep up his current level of success, but he should be a safe bet to hold down a spot in the back of a rotation. For his career, the South Florida native is 54-55 with a 4.04 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and an 827/267 strikeout to walk ratio over 172 games (153 starts) since 2011.

7. RHP Shelby Miller (2019 Age: 28): 0-4, 10.69 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 19/8 K/BB, 16 IP
Like Billy Hamilton, it's tough to place a value on Shelby Miller. When fully healthy, he is a legitimate #2 starter, but the problem is that he hasn't been fully healthy in years. From 2012-2015, Miller went 32-35 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 102 games (96 starts) for the Cardinals and Braves. The Braves sent him to Arizona in what turned out to be the worst trade in Diamondbacks history; over the last three years, he is 5-18 with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP, pitching in just 29 games (28 starts) in the process. If a team can figure out how to get Miller healthy, they have an extremely valuable asset on their hands; if they can't then they don't. He'll probably sign an incentives-laden deal and would fit great in a place like LA or Houston, who have deep rotations but could always use another top arm. For his career, the Texan is 37-53 with a 3.83 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 592/269 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games (124 starts) since 2012.

8. RHP Blake Parker (2019 Age: 33-34): 2-1, 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 70/19 K/BB, 66.1 IP
Parker has quietly been a very good reliever for the Angels over the past two seasons, posting a 2.90 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 156/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.2 innings. While he was a bit better in 2017 than 2018, at 33 years old he's still a valuable reliever who should have no problem posting an ERA below 4.00 and maintaining solid component ratios. As far as relievers go, he's a fairly low-risk seventh inning guy. For his career, the former Arkansas Razorback has a 3.29 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 256/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 229 appearances since 2012.

9. DH Matt Davidson (2019 Age: 28): 20 HR, .228/.319/.419, 0 SB, 104 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR
Davidson has big power, but that's really about it. He hit 26 home runs in 2017 and added 20 more in 2018, but he more than doubled his walk rate from a poor 4.3% in 2017 to a solid 10.5% in 2018, covering up for his .228 batting average and making him a solid, #6ish hitter at his best. He hits left handed pitchers better than right handed pitchers, so unless he ends up on a bottom-rung team, he's probably a platoon bat at best. For his career, the Southern California native has 49 home runs, a .226/.295/.435 slash line, and 0.3 fWAR over 273 games since 2013.

10. 3B Yangervis Solarte (2019 Age: 17 HR, .226/.277/.378, 1 SB, 77 wRC+, -1.3 fWAR
It was a really poor season for Solarte, but he does have upside and can provide value in numerous ways. While he is primarily a third baseman, he can play second base adequately and can also be used at shortstop or first base in a pinch, making him a versatile bench asset. At the plate, his on-base percentage is largely dependent on his batting average, but he has some pop (double digit home runs in each of the past five seasons) and that's hard to find in a cheap infielder. He should catch on as a utility man somewhere. For his career, the Venezuelan has 74 home runs, a .259/.317/.410 slash line, and 5.6 fWAR over 642 games since 2014.

Other notable
OF Robbie Grossman (29): 5 HR, .273/.367/.384, 0 SB, 108 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR
RHP Hunter Strickland (30): 3-5, 3.97 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 37/21 K/BB, 45.1 IP
LHP Luis Avilan (29-30): 2-1, 3.77 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 51/18 K/BB, 45.1 IP
IF Tim Beckham (29): 12 HR, .230/.287/.374, 1 SB, 79 wRC+ -0.5 fWAR
RHP Matt Shoemaker (32): 2-2, 4.94 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 33/10 K/BB, 31 IP
C James McCann (28-29): 8 HR, .220/.267/.314, 0 SB, 58 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR
OF Chris Owings (27-28): 4 HR, .206/.272/.302, 11 SB, 51 wRC+, -0.8 fWAR
RHP Matt Bush (33): 0-0, 4.70 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 19/14 K/BB, 23 IP
OF Bubba Starling (26-27): Spent 2018 in minors

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