RHP Homer Bailey (2019 Age: 33): 1-14, 6.09 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 75/33 K/BB, 106.1 IP
2B Jeter Downs (2019 Age: 20-21): 13 HR, .257/.351/.402, 37 SB, 118 wRC+ at Class A
RHP Josiah Gray (2019 Age: 21): 2-2, 2.58 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 59/17 K/BB, 52.1 IP in Rookie ball
Reds Get
OF Yasiel Puig (2019 Age: 28): 23 HR, .267/.327/.494, 15 SB, 123 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR
OF Matt Kemp (2019 Age: 34): 21 HR, .290/.338/.481, 0 SB, 122 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR
RHP Alex Wood (2019 Age: 28): 9-7, 3.68 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 135/40 K/BB, 151.2 IP
C Kyle Farmer (2019 Age: 28): 0 HR, .235/.312/.324, 0 SB, 76 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR
$7 million
There is a lot going on in his trade, from money flying all over the place to the Reds thinking they can contend to the Dodgers potentially making a play at Bryce Harper. In terms of salary, Homer Bailey is owed $28 million on his contract but with deferred payments, not all of that will count towards the Dodgers' luxury tax. Matt Kemp is owed roughly $21.5 million, Puig will make about $11 million after arbitration, and Wood about $9 million. With the additional $7 million going from Los Angeles to Cincinnati and money being paid in different ways, the Dodgers drop something in the $15 million range in luxury tax-related salary.
Dodgers Perspective
First and foremost, the Dodgers cut salary here. That $15-ish million that is coming out of the Dodgers' luxury taxable salary will almost certainly go to acquiring some other free agent, likely an outfielder given that they just traded two. A.J. Pollock is one option, though of course, Bryce Harper is another. Signing Harper will push the Dodgers well over the luxury tax, but if they're willing to do so and potentially take penalties, Harper would fit right in in Los Angeles. Also, with Kemp and Puig out of the outfield, the Dodgers now have room to play Alex Verdugo every day. The 22 year old outfielder is an excellent pure hitter who can get on base at high clips, and with some power and speed, he looks like he could give them a fourth straight season with a serious NL Rookie of the Year contender or winner after Corey Seager (winner in 2016), Cody Bellinger (winner in 2017), and Walker Buehler (third place in 2018).
Among the players brought in, none figure to have an immediate impact on LA; this was a salary dump. Homer Bailey, who posted a 6.09 ERA over 20 starts, will never throw a pitch for the Dodgers - he has already been released, taking his $28 million from the Dodgers and saying "thank you" (in reality, his payments will be spread out). Even with Alex Wood leaving the rotation, the Dodgers have a full rotation in Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and some combination of Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling, and Julio Urias. In terms of prospects, the they did pick up a couple of solid future pieces that can potentially cover them if their draft pick gets pushed down due to Harper-related luxury tax penalties. Jeter Downs, aside from having one of the coolest names in the minors (the Jeter does, in fact, come from Derek Jeter), is a scouting favorite with tools all over the place. He slashed .257/.351/.402 with 13 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Class A Dayton, showing an advanced feel for hitting to go along with great speed, pretty good defense, some power, and a reputation for being a hard worker. He doesn't turn 21 until July, when he'll be at High A and potentially knocking on the door to AA if the transition goes smoothly. His upside is that of a good starting second baseman, one who can get on base, make plays, and hit for some power. Josiah Gray, a 2018 draftee (72nd overall) out of Division II Le Moyne College up in Syracuse, is new to pitching as a converted shortstop, but he doesn't seem new when he's on the mound. In twelve starts at rookie level Greeneville, he posted a 2.58 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 59/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings, his supposed "lack of feel" given his new position clearly not being a factor. He has a loose, fresh arm that tosses mid 90's fastball and an improving slider, though his changeup and command need some work if he wants to start in the majors. He has a high ceiling as a mid-rotation starter but also comes with reliever risk. And by the way, happy birthday to Josiah, who was traded on his 21st birthday.
Reds Perspective
While the Reds took on some payroll, roughly $7 million, it's hard to call this anything but a win for them. They moved Homer Bailey's un-movable contract, added three valuable players, and didn't have to give up any of their top prospects. Now, their team actually looks surprisingly decent. The outfield was extremely thin with just Jesse Winker, Philip Ervin, and Scott Schebler projected to start, and now manager David Bell can mix and match five outfielders who will all be valuable in the right matchups. In the rotation, Alex Wood gives them a reliable veteran in a group of young arms, and if Luis Castillo bounces back, it could be average. Overall, I don't think the Reds contend for the NL Central crown in what looks like a very tough division, but that doesn't mean they can't grab a Wild Card spot if a few things break in their favor. Keep in mind I haven't said anything about Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, or top prospect and likely 2019 contributor Nick Senzel. The risk is also lower for the Reds, as they can flip any of Puig, Kemp, or Wood at the trade deadline if they're not contending, recouping some of the value lost in Downs and Gray.
In terms of new Reds, Yasiel Puig is probably the headliner. Known for his flamboyant style on the field, Puig slashed .267/.327/.494 with 23 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 2018, which is more or less in line what he has done over the past few seasons. In Cincinnati, though, those numbers will probably go up due to Great American Ballpark's small dimensions. Meanwhile, Matt Kemp had a similar year at .290/.338/.481 with 21 home runs, though he is not as likely as Puig to maintain that production given his age (34) and inconsistent production over the past few seasons. Still, Great American Ballpark will give him a boost and and even in his worst offensive season, 2017, he still slashed .276/.318/.463 with 19 home runs for the Braves. The small ballpark might even mask some of his defensive concerns, and with five average outfielders now in Cincinnati, he probably won't play every day. Kemp can platoon with Schebler in left while Puig can platoon with Jesse Winker in right. On the mound, new starter Alex Wood has been up and down over the past couple of seasons, settling in the middle in 2018 by posting a 3.68 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 135/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 151.2 innings, and he'll have more breathing room in a less crowded Cincinnati rotation. Now paired with Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani at the top of the rotation, that's a respectable front three. The final two spots will go to some combination of Cody Reed, Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano, and Robert Stephenson, which in theory should give the Reds a pretty decent rotation that could make a run at a playoff spot. Lastly, catcher Kyle Farmer caught Wood back in 2010-2012, when both were teammates at the University of Georgia, then again in 2017-2018 with the Dodgers. He'll follow Wood to Cincinnati, where he'll likely compete with fellow former SEC catcher Curt Casali (Vanderbilt 2008-2011) to back up starter Tucker Barnhart. Farmer slashed a respectable .235/.312/.324 in 39 games in LA this year, showing a light bat and an average glove.
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