Monday, January 29, 2018

Royals, A's Make Four Player Swap

A's Get: Brandon Moss: 22 HR, .207/.279/.428, 2 SB, 84 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR
Ryan Buchter: 4-3, 2.89 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 65/26 K/BB, 65.1 IP
$3.25 million
Royals Get: Jesse Hahn: 3-6, 5.30 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 55/27 K/BB, 69.2 IP
Minor leaguer Heath Fillmyer: 11-5, 3.49 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 115/51 K/BB, 149.2 IP at AA

The Royals and A's made a mid-level trade, with no headliners changing teams but plenty of talent on the move. From the A's perspective, this trade adds both outfield and bullpen depth. Brandon Moss, who played in Oakland from 2012-2014, adds that depth in the outfield, having hit at least 19 home runs in each of the past six seasons. Nobody looks like they are guaranteed a starting spot in that outfield, as even Khris Davis could end up DHing a fair amount, and Moss will likely see more time versus right handed pitching, probably at Stephen Piscotty's expense. Moss himself does not carry around the large L/R splits you would expect from a lefty with his high strikeout totals, but he does show more power against right handed pitching, something that has been important in the pitchers' parks he has played in in the past six years and will continue to be important in his second stint in Oakland. This past year, Moss hit a somewhat disappointing .207/.279/.428 with 22 home runs in 118 games, but that power will be valuable in the right match-ups. Moss is owed $7.25 million for 2018 (plus $1 million in the likely case that his $10 million mutual option is declined), but the Royals are sending $3.25 million to offset the contract somewhat, meaning Moss will either cost the A's $5 million for one year (more likely) or $14 million for two years (much less likely unless he has a huge bounce-back season). For his career, the Georgia native has 160 home runs, a .237/.314/.452 slash line, and 8.8 fWAR over 1016 games. Meanwhile, Ryan Buchter is one of the best relievers you've never heard of. Over 71 appearances last season, the lefty put up a 2.89 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 65/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings. This success is sustained from 2016, where he put up similar numbers with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 78/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 innings. He's a fly ball pitcher, but both Kansas City and Oakland are pitchers' parks (as well as San Diego, where he played previously) and that shouldn't be an issue, especially considering that his 16.5% infield fly ball rate and 26% soft contact rate were both 15th in baseball among pitchers with at least 50 innings in 2017. He joins Blake Treinen, Emilio Pagan, Yusmeiro Petit, Santiago Casilla, and others in what will be one of the more interesting bullpens in baseball. Buchter still has one year of team control and three years of arbitration left, leaving him under control through the 2021 season, though he will turn 31 in February as he didn't crack the major leagues until he was 27. For his career, he is 8-3 with a 2.85 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 144/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.1 innings in 139 appearances.

Interestingly, this leaves the Royals with absolutely nobody to play first base, with third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert looking like the most likely in-house option. However, prospects Ryan O'Hearn and Samir Duenez could make for an interesting dark horse battle if they show up to camp with a chip on their shoulder. Of course, this could also mean what every Royals fan hopes it means; the Royals are clearing space to bring back Eric Hosmer. In terms of this trade, the Royals brought back right hander Jesse Hahn, a Virginia Tech alumnus whose career got off to a promising start in 2014-2015 before fizzling a bit in 2016-2017. From 2014-2015, Hahn went 13-10 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 30 games (28 starts), but since 2016, he is 5-10 with a 5.59 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over 23 games (22 starts), including a 5.30 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 2017. In terms of the Kansas City rotation this year, Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy can be considered locks, while Jake Junis and Jason Hammel are highly likely to nail down spots as well. That leaves the fifth spot wide open, with Hahn, Nate Karns, Trevor Oaks, and Sam Gaviglio all in the running to grab it. If he can get back to his 2014-2015 form, he should have no trouble grabbing it. Like Buchter, he has one year of team control and three years of arbitration left before he becomes a free agent after the 2021 season. For his career, the Connecticut native is 18-20 with a 4.19 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 212/103 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games (50 starts). The lone prospect in the deal, right handed pitcher Heath Fillmyer, was drafted in the fifth round of the 2014 draft out of Mercer County Community College in New Jersey, steadily climbing the ladder ever since. He was very impressive with AA Midland this year, going 11-5 with a 3.49 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 115/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 149.2 innings spanning 29 starts. He has good overall stuff, showing a fastball in the low to mid 90's and solid curveball/changeup pair, though he was a bit too hittable with Midland (158 hits) and he needs to further refine his command. Still, the 23 year old is close to the majors and could break into the Kansas City bullpen (or even rotation) with a few adjustments in 2018.

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