Monday, January 15, 2018

Giants Add Andrew McCutchen to Outfield

Giants Get: Andrew McCutchen: 28 HR, .279/.363/.486, 11 SB, 122 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR
$2.5 million
Pirates Get: Kyle Crick: 0-0, 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 28/17 K/BB, 32.1 IP
Minor leaguer Bryan Reynolds10 HR, .312/.364/.462, 5 SB, 122 wRC+ at High Class A
$500,000 in international bonus pool space

Star centerfielder Andrew McCutchen is the second franchise face to be shipped across the country to San Francisco, following Rays star Evan Longoria. The Giants' outfield was completely barren before the trade, with Hunter Pence (13 HR, .260/.315/.385), Gorkys Hernandez (12 SB, .255/.327/.326), and Jarrett Parker (4 HR, .247/.294/.416) slated to start. McCutchen presumably knocks Parker out of the left field starting spot, because even though he played center in Pittsburgh, he was below average there and will have even more difficulty covering AT&T Park's massive outfield. As a hitter, he had a big bounce back season last year, swatting 28 home runs and slashing .279/.363/.486 with eleven stolen bases to rack up 3.7 fWAR. He likely won't get back to his peak of 2012-2014, where he averaged 7.3 fWAR per season, but he brings to the Giants a combination of power, patience, contact, and speed, not to mention a little name recognition for jersey sales. All of that said, McCutchen will not bring a division crown to the Bay Area. He is only under contract for one more season (at $14.5 million, of which $2.5 million will be paid by Pittsburgh), and the Dodgers are looking to run away with another NL West crown. The Rockies and Diamondbacks also both look good, and unlike the Giants, the Rockies have the farm system for some sustained success. After Heliot Ramos and Chris Shaw, there's not much in terms of impact talent in the system, though the Giants will get a compensation draft pick when they presumably offer McCutchen a qualifying offer after the season and he signs elsewhere. In terms of the outfield now, the Giants need to add yet another piece if they want to compete, and they're right up against the luxury tax threshold, so they'll either have to push past it and accept the penalty or deal again from their shallow farm system. For his career, McCutchen has 203 home runs, a .291/.379/.487 slash line, and 171 stolen bases over 1346 games, racking up 44.4 fWAR in what could border on a Hall of Fame career.

Meanwhile, the Pirates got back a couple of mid-level prospects, along the lines of what came back for Gerrit Cole. Kyle Crick was a longtime prospect as a starting pitcher, but when his progress stagnated for three years in AA when he struggled to throw strikes (he walked 21.9% of the batters he faced in 2015!), the Giants converted him to a reliever and promoted him to AAA Sacramento for 2017. He thrived there, posting a 2.76 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 39/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.1 innings. Though his 10.5% walk rate was still a little high, it was the lowest mark he had ever posted in the minor leagues, and his 31.5% strikeout rate was very promising. Promoted to the majors in June, he more than held his own, posting a 3.06 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 28/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 32.1 innings. The 49th overall pick of the 2011 draft, who turned 25 in November, has new life in his career, and he could make an impact on the Pirates as a long term set-up man. Meanwhile, outfielder Bryan Reynolds could end up providing more value. Drafted in the second round of the 2016 draft out of Vanderbilt, Reynolds was talented enough to go as early as the back half of the first round, but somehow fell out of the top fifty picks. After a successful pro debut across two levels in 2016, the Giants assigned him to High Class A San Jose less than a year after drafting him. Over 121 games, he held up just fine, slashing .312/.364/.462, good for a 122 wRC+ even in the hitter-friendly California League. Now, he did have big splits between his moderate home park (4 HR, .275/.322/.406) and his road trips (6 HR, .348/.403/.518) to more hitter-friendly venues. He didn't have the best plate discipline, striking out 106 times to 37 walks, but I am still confident in his ability to translate his hitting at least up to AA. Overall, he showed that he was a very competent hitter for the league despite the aggressive assignment, and he'll be ready for AA in 2018 and could even break into the majors if all goes well. He has enough speed to play adequate centerfield defense, which takes pressure off his bat, and he'll likely end up as a fourth outfielder in Pittsburgh, albeit a good one who could easily start if given the opportunity.

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