Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Diamondbacks Add Quietly Good Alex Avila

Alex Avila: 14 HR, .264/.387/.447, 0 SB, 124 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR
2 years, $8.25 million, up to $500,000 in incentives

In an extremely competitive NL West, the Diamondbacks' roster could stack up with the other teams everywhere except behind the plate. Jeff Mathis is great defensively and even better when it comes to handling pitching staffs, but he can't hit, having never posted a wRC+ above 68 or a wOBA above .277. That is where Alex Avila comes in, coming off a very good rebound year in which he slashed .264/.387/.447 with 14 home runs in 112 games, good for a 124 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR. His success was partially driven off an extremely high .382 BABIP (versus a career .325 mark), but if you look closer, his big year was more about skill than about luck. Among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances, according to Fangraphs, his 48.7% hard hit rate was the second highest in baseball only to J.D. Martinez, while his 6.7% soft-hit rate was the lowest in baseball by more than three percentage points. His .395 xwOBA (compiled by Statcast, measuring what he conceivably should have hit based on his quality of contact) was the sixth highest in baseball, behind only such names as Aaron Judge (.441), J.D. Martinez (.423), Joey Votto (.421), Mike Trout (.417), and Nelson Cruz (.395) and one spot ahead of Freddie Freeman (.393). To sum up all the numbers and jargon, Avila very quietly hit the snot out of the ball. He also walked at a 16.5% rate, good for fifth in baseball behind only Votto, Judge, Trout, and Matt Carpenter. That's not a bad list. Of course, the downside to Avila is that this was his first season slugging over .400 since 2011, as he has been good about maintaining isolated power but has struggled to hit for average. Still, he always walks, and he is coming off the second best year of his career. Don't overlook what Avila can contribute to the Arizona offense. For his career, the Alabama alumnus has 87 home runs, a .243/.351/.401 slash line, and 14.4 fWAR over 852 games.

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