Astros Get: Gerrit Cole: 12-12, 4.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 196/55 K/BB, 203 IP
Pirates Get: Joe Musgrove: 7-8, 4.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 98/28 K/BB, 109.1 IP
Colin Moran: 1 HR, .364/.417/.818, 0 SB, 223 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR
Michael Feliz: 4-2, 5.63 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 70/22 K/BB, 48 IP
Minor leaguer Jason Martin: 18 HR, .278/.332/.487, 16 SB, 127 wRC+ at High Class A and AA
The Astros did really, really well in trading for Gerrit Cole, doing so without giving up top prospects Forrest Whitley, Kyle Tucker, or J.B. Bukauskas. Cole now joins Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton in one of the best rotations assembled in recent memory. Verlander is past his prime but is still very effective, Keuchel won the AL Cy Young Award in 2015 and is still very effective, McCullers can be dominant when healthy, and Morton experience a career revival last season by just "throwing harder." Cole's career in Pittsburgh was up and down, most notably up in 2015 when he went 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 32 starts, and most notably down in 2016 when he was limited to 21 starts by arm troubles and finished 7-10 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. His ERA was up at 4.26 this past season, but he got his WHIP back down to 1.25 and his strikeout rate up from 19.4% to 23.1% and his walk rate down from 7.1% to 6.5%. He also allowed a ton of home runs, 31 to be exact, plagued by the eighth highest home run to fly ball rate in baseball (15.9%). Normally a fairly ground ball oriented pitcher, he had the highest fly ball rate of his career in 2017 (33.7%), another thing that may have contributed to his inflated ERA. Cole is no ace, but he fits right into a stacked Astros rotation and gives them arguably the best shot to win it all in 2018. Plus, he's under contract for just $6.75 million in 2018 and whatever he makes in arbitration for 2019 (probably around $10 million), which is certainly a bargain. For his career, the former first overall pick out of UCLA is 59-42 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 127 starts.
Overall, it's a pretty disappointing package for a name-brand starter, but the Pirates did get four useful players to work with. Among the haul going back to Pittsburgh, pitcher Joe Musgrove has had the biggest MLB impact so far. Musgrove first caught nationwide attention in 2015, when as a 22 year old he went 12-1 with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP across three minor league levels, striking out 99 and walking just eight over 100.2 innings. He has spent most of 2016 and 2017 in the majors, mostly as a starter but also at times as a reliever. He has been capable in his 25 career starts (8-12, 5.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 114/38 K/BB), but he appears to be on another level in 24 appearances as a long reliever (3-0, 1.26 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 39/6 K/BB). The Pirates can use Musgrove and his top notch command as a starter if they'd like, but those relief numbers are pretty exciting, and he could fill a Chris Devenski type role in Pittsburgh. For his career, Musgrove is 11-12 with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 49 games (25 starts). Third baseman Colin Moran, like Cole and Musgrove, was a first round pick, but he has taken some time to get going and hasn't quite filled his potential. He was blocked in Houston behind Alex Bregman at third base and behind Yulieski Gurriel and A.J. Reed at first base, but he could fill in for David Freese at third base in Pittsburgh when necessary and possibly even take over for him in 2019 if the Pirates decline his $6 million option. A power hitter at UNC, Moran finally got going at AAA Fresno in 2017, cracking 18 home runs and slashing .308/.373/.543 over 79 games, striking out 55 times with 31 walks. He crushed the ball in twelve major league plate appearances, knocking two singles, a triple, and a home run while walking once and striking out once. He turned 25 in October, and he'll look for the change of scenery to get him going. Righty Michael Feliz is a power reliever who has struck out major league hitters in bunches over the past two seasons, at a 35.2% rate in 2016 and a 32.1% rate in 2017. He was a bit too hittable in 2017 and finished with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over 46 appearances, but at just 24 years old, the Pirates can try to refine him and help him use his velocity to the fullest. For his career, Feliz is 12-3 with a 5.13 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 172/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 appearances. Lastly, minor league outfielder Jason Martin continued his 2016 power breakout into 2017, clubbing 18 home runs between High A Buies Creek and AA Corpus Christi. With Buies Creek, Martin hit seven home runs and slashed .287/.354/.494 over 46 games, picking up nine stolen bases along the way. Against the tougher pitching in AA, he didn't lose much production, hitting eleven home runs and slashing .273/.319/.483 with seven stolen bases in 79 games. Aside from his walk rate dropping from 10.1% to 5.9%, pretty much his whole game translated up from the High A Carolina League to the AA Texas League without a hitch, and he has a chance to serve as a fourth outfielder for the Pirates in the near future, if not a regular if he can continue to translate his skills upwards.
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